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Can Republicans keep the House? Will Democrats swipe the Senate? Which state is being made Great Again with the next presidential visit? It's Monday, Oct. 22, Trump and Cruz are friends again, and there are 15 days until the midterm elections.
Where things stand
• Democrats hope for a mega-wave on Election Day. They can still get one. But at present, these strategies are of the utmost importance. Democrats need 23 to flip the chamber.
• In the Senate, Republican officials say they will be more likely to vote – more 51 – 49 majority. Why? Two reasons.
They think the oven G.O.P. Senate seats with serious races (Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, Texas) are now, or at least, long, Arizona – or are, at worst, tossups. The New York Times Upshot-Siena College polls on those four races indicate the same.
And there's a sense among Republicans that, among Democratic-held Senate seats, they are virtually certain to pick up North Dakota and Missouri; Florida leans their way; and Indiana and Montana are very much on the table.
• Democratic officials concede their odds of winning North Dakota are long. And their optimism from September about taking over the Senate? Faded. But they are not ready to write Missouri and they dispute the Republican thinking about Florida. And Arizona and Nevada are still in reach; Democrats took heart in the strong first day of early voting in Nevada.
• Tennessee, despite some polls that showed Republicans enjoying a post-Kavanaugh bounce, remains a real race for the open Senate seat.
The Trump forecast (Monday 5th edition)
• President Trump is in Houston on Monday for a rally at 7:30 pm Eastern with Senator Ted Cruz, who once called "pathological liar" and "serial philanderer." In the senator's defense, Mr. Trump implicated Mr. Cruz's father in the Kennedy assassination without evidence. Politics is fun.
• Mr. Trump sounds like a man who thinks he has a winning hand. He is attacking the migrant "caravan" relentlessly as Republicans search for an issue to the Democratic focus on protecting pre-existing conditions coverage.
"Stooge."
"Failed mayor."
Florida governor – whoever it is – of a sass deficiency.
The debate Sunday night between Andrew Gillum, the Progressive Democratic mayor of Tallahassee, and Ron DeSantis, a Trump-loving republican congressman, had a little bit of everything: discussions of race and toxic algae, Israel and health care.
Takeaways:
• There was no knockout moment.
• Mr. Gillum, who mostly called his rival "Mr. DeSantis "or" the congressman, "mocked his opponent's fealty to the president and made pointed allusions to Mr. DeSantis comments.
"I'm a hard-working person. I know how to make you feel good, but I do not know what you think about it. – ANDREW GILLUM
It was a flourishing flourish for Mr. Gillum on a night when he was under the constant attack of Mr. DeSantis, who came across as – well, not desperate, but rather driven to paint Mr. Gillum as The Worst Mayor Ever. (Even though Mr. DeSantis was caught on a live mic afterward Mr. Gillum, "you're a good guy.")
Polls coming this week
• Our new poll of the Florida Senate is expected to begin this week. A recent CNN poll had Senator Bill Nelson, the Democrat, just ahead, while other polls show a very close contest between Mr. Nelson and the Republican, Gov. Rick Scott.
Thanks for reading. The Tip Sheet is a daily political analysis of the midterms, based on interviews with Republican and Democratic officials, pollsters, strategists and others.
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