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The eighth week of the 2018 NFL season begins with the confrontation of two teams that are somewhat surprising in the composition of the teams for the AFC playoffs.
The Miami Dolphins are 4-3 despite not having played their starting quarter in the last two weeks and have been outscored by 26 points in the first seven games of the season. The Houston Texans are also 4-3, but they did not get there until they started with a 0-3 win and won consecutive wins by the Colts, Cowboys, and Bills before beating them. rivals, the Jaguars, of the division.
Both teams have serious injury problems on both sides of the ball, while the Dolphins fail to understand their running game and Texans can not block to save their lives. And yet, again, they are both 4-3. And that means anyone who wins the game on Thursday night (8:20 pm, NFL Network, Stream on FUBOTV) will play a very good shot at a spot in the AFC playoffs.
Let's break down what to watch for.
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When Texans have the ball
The Texans lost the slot machine doubling, Keke Coutee, last week, due to the reoccurrence of his hamstring problem. Ryan Griffin, too, should miss this game. He will probably come back to the top two receivers of Deshaun Watson's Houston attack in this game.
Watson has an extremely narrow passing spread, targeting Hopkins on 29.4% of his passing attempts. Fuller is the second closest player with 16.2%, followed by Coutee with 12.4%, followed by Griffin with 10.4%. That quarter of the players accounted for 68.4 percent of Watson's throws – and Coutee only really played in three games, while Fuller had been struggling for weeks and Griffin had missed the last game.
After Coutee and Griffin, the Texans turned to halfback Tyler Ervin to handle the slot. We should expect him to play this role again on Thursday night. Needless to say, Watson will target his two best players even more often than usual. When he throws his way, he is generally quite successful: Watson has completed 74 of 110 passes scored for Hopkins and Fuller for 1,086 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions. Watson has 78 points on 131 for 851 yards, three touchdowns and four choices.
| stat | Hopkins / Fuller | All the others |
| Comp | 74 | 78 |
| Att | 110 | 131 |
| Comp% | 67.3% | 59.5% |
| yds | 1086 | 851 |
| YPA | 9.87 | 6.50 |
| TD | 7 | 3 |
| TD% | 6.36% | 2.29% |
| INT | 3 | 4 |
| INT% | 2.7% | 3.1% |
| Rtg | 109.13 | 73.68 |
The problem with such a narrow target distribution against Miami is that halfbacks Xavien Howard and Bobby McCain performed very well this season – as did Reshad Jones, T.J. McDonald and rookie Minkah Fitzpatrick. The Dolphins have 11 interceptions at their highest level in the NFL and although they give 8.3 yards per attempt, their opponents rank seventh among the worst passers of the NFL. Against the five defensive backs that have been targeted at least 10 times in the cover, the opposing QBs have only 60 points on 110 points for 829 yards, three touchdowns and new interceptions. This is a score of 53.9 for smugglers, which is essentially to turn each quarter into Heath Shuler.
It is much easier to move the ball into the air against Miami linebackers, but all receivers inside Houston are injured. Expecting Watson to register the ball at the back of the field by sending assists to Ervin, Vyncint Smith, and the rookie's tight start, Jordan Akins and Jordan Thomas is unrealistic.
Perhaps then a better choice would be to rely on the game of running. Lamar Miller has been wildly ineffective this season and Alfred Blue has not been much better in his place. The second year official of D & # 39; Onta Foreman is still not ready to return from the list of players physically unable to perform. Houston is trapped with two backs, averaging 3.7 rushing yards this season. In reality, Watson is the team's best threat, but the Dolphins have allowed the quarterbacks only 71 yards on 11 runs designed or contested this season, according to Sports Info Solutions.
The sled ride is rather difficult for the Houston offense.
When dolphins have the ball
The dolphins are perhaps even more delighted, as are the Texans. Miami enters this game by missing several important offensive contributors.
Starter Ryan Tannehill is still out, but his shoulder injury has left him out of touch for Miami's last two games. Last Sunday against the Lions, the big receivers Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills were also injured. Wilson did not need to be operated on the hip, but was still placed on the injured reserve and was away for at least eight weeks. Stills is suffering from groin and will not do the deal on Thursday night. In addition, rookie halfback Mike Gesicki left the Lions game with a shoulder injury and his status is pending. Tight late journeyman A.J. Derby has missed the last four games and we do not know he'll be back in time to face the Texans. All of this adds to the end-of-season injury suffered by goaltender Josh Sitton earlier in the year.
After Wilson and Stills, DeVante Parker will be back in training. Parker seemed to be a lock to trade as recently as Sunday morning and is himself injured, but instead he will be back in the mix. He will likely work in three receiver sets with kick kicker Jakeem Grant and slot leader Danny Amendola. This trio will capture a pass from Brock Osweiler, who always starts in Tannehill's place.
Do you have all this? Well. Because there are so many moving parts in Miami 's passing game right now, it' s hard to know what to expect from them on Thursday night. Osweiler achieved an admirable performance in relief on Tannehill, completing 54 of 80 passes for 654 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions so far. That's a score of 107.0, far better than anything Osweiler has done elsewhere in his career. Amendola, her favorite target in the air, has 14 catches for 143 yards and one touchdown in the last two games.
Amendola works mostly out of the slot – an area that Texans have struggled to cover without injured corner half Aaron Colvin. Opposing teams made 66 of 99 passes for slots receivers, according to Sports Info Solutions, while gaining 756 yards and scoring five touchdowns without being intercepted. This corresponds to a pass mark of 106.3, 22nd in the NFL. Parker and Grant will probably have to deal with more difficult tests outside. Smugglers have been much less effective in targeting perimeter receivers against Houston, according to SIS, completing 47 of 82 passes for 627 yards, five touchdowns and three choices (86.8 passers). Considering that Parker was inactive and that Grant is above all a man back, it would not be surprising that they could not really get going – especially since the Texans' rush will probably force Osweiler to get rid of the ball quickly. J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney are extremely difficult to manage, especially for an offensive line that is not at full strength.
Nevertheless, it is much easier to move the ball into the airs in Houston than in the air, indicating that Dolphins are likely to train the Kenyan Drake in their background more often than Frank Gore. Gore kept control of the role of the Dolphins at the start of the descent, while Drake became more of a space back. His presence could help Osweiler find quick outlets if precipitation seems to slow him down.
Prediction: Texans 17, Dolphins 13
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