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Beto O'Rourke may well lose his candidacy in the Senate, but also his efforts to reorganize politics in Texas.
The Congressman of El Paso, who has been sitting for three terms, draws a huge crowd, amassing a ton of money and impresses even the most jaded observers of the campaign. But he is still behind in the polls, Republicans vote earlier than O'Rourke's other Democrats, and even his biggest fans doubt he can break the country's longest run of defeats.
Nevertheless, look at the ballots and the Democrats have reason to hope. O'Rourke inspired legions of political newcomers with his optimistic message. Many of them could very well vote for other Democrats. Even though his campaign is too short, O'Rourke's meetings could help place Democrats in the eight districts of Texas House listed in Cook's non-political political report.
"I think he has very good opponents. Our ticket is not as strong as it is, "said Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson, a Democrat from the Dallas area.
On the other side, the Republicans offer a disconcerting respect. "The amount of money that he has, he will obviously elect many races, seats in the House of Judges," said a high-ranking Republican. "By procuring voters for himself, he converts voters for other Democrats."
Take the Dallas-area district represented by Republican Pete Sessions for 22 years. The sessions won his first term in 1996 with 53% of the vote, his weakest result. In 2016, he won with 71% of the votes. The seat of Sessions, chairman of the powerful House Rules Committee and twice chair of the House of Republican campaign committee, has long been a dream turnaround for Democrats. But he seemed out of reach until this year, when the party recruited Colin Allred, a lawyer who worked for the Obama administration and who played linebacker for the NFL Titans, Tennessee.
Polls in the district have been hard to come by in recent weeks, although Republicans say their private surveys indicate that the sessions are taking place on safer ground than summer. But the district is one of the fastest changes in the country, with changing political allegiances among these wealthy and highly educated voters. Mitt Romney carried the district with 57% support in 2012, then Hillary Clinton with 48% four years later. Allred, a candidate for the first time, raised almost $ 5 million, more than just sessions.
That's why, recently Sunday afternoon, Allred filled the lobby of a movie theater with supporters before breaking the door in his place. Actress and producer Connie Britton and former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Julian Castro, were at his side to assist him. A day earlier, John Lewis, a congressman and icon of civil rights, was at his side.
"Democrats and Republicans are not the only ones voting. It's not just the left and the right and the ideology on the ballot. It's good against evil. What is happening right now is wrong, we are headed in the wrong direction, "said Allred.
Allred's supporters agreed. "It's going to be tight, but we're working hard," said Volunteer Tom Ervin, wearing a "Beto" cap and an Allred campaign t-shirt. "I did not know that Murphy, Texas, existed until I knocked on doors."
Standing nearby, Heather French was chatting with her friends that she had brought to meet Allred. "People think Texas is red," she said. "It's really not, but we have to show ourselves."
This is why senior officials on both sides are closely monitoring the districts as Sessions. "When we look at the evolution of the residence in his district, it is not surprising that it would be a district in which there would be a challenge," he said. said Texas Republican Party chairman James Dickey. "One of the blessings of life in Texas is the opportunity and growth we have. One of the problems we face in Texas is that we have people coming from states where the policies are completely different and yet they decide, "God, it would be nice if Texas implemented them."
O 'Rourke's enthusiasm, perhaps associated with a broader blue wave of Democratic enthusiasm, could elect Texas's first Democrat in the Senate since 1988. No one can credibly assert that O & # 39; Rourke is not a factor that explains why the state is in place. to play.
"We do not vote or vote for granted," said Senator Dawn Buckingham, who leads the Republicans' campaigning efforts. "We are trying to convey our message home and make sure that everyone passes the finish line."
It's quite possible that his team will succeed. The Texas Republican Party is one of the most powerful in the country. Republican Governor Greg Abbott has had favorable odds and seems to be able to easily re-elect this fall. In September, the Republicans overthrew a Senate senator's seat in a two-thirds Hispanic district, owned by the Democratic Party for 130 years. In addition, with about a quarter of registered voters who have already voted early or in advance, Republicans are widely perceived as the top voters among voters aged 40 and over, including a 250% increase among 40-year-old voters and a 150% increase in voters aged 50. at 64.
But even Sessions critics recognize their challenges. "I think Sessions will win," said Hunt Caraway, a 50-year-old government teacher who voted early for Allred. "But if we get there, it will send a message to the Sessions he needs to represent his district – his entire district."
Or, if the O'Rourke phenomenon proves he can translate the buzz into votes, he can send new faces to Washington.
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