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If your fantasy team is full of Los Angeles Rams players, you are probably very happy. Todd Gurley is the most fantastic player in the series after seven weeks. Los Angeles's three most prominent players – Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods – rank among the top 21 PPR standard point receivers to date. Jared Goff is QB8. Kicker Greg Zuerlein lost time due to a groin injury, but the Rams were otherwise the dream of a fantastic team manager in the first seven weeks.
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I am worried, however, of a nightmare to come. The real Rams have been so good that their fantasies may not be there when you need them the most. NFL coach-defenseman Sean McVay is a brilliant offensive mind and a rational thinker to keep his players healthy for the future. he most needed of them. These two things could conspire to produce an imaginary apocalypse.
There is a not insignificant chance that the Rams leave Gurley, Goff and the rest of their arms out for some (or most) of the fantastic playoffs. And unless you have another Gurley on your bench, well, that's something you'll want to prepare soon.
Rest control
McVay operates the Rams like no other NFL team or offensive. As I mentioned earlier this year, the Rams aim to play essentially the same offensive staff at every moment. While other elite offenses turn players to keep their weapons fresh and dictate a defensive look, McVay will play all the matches of his three passers-by, starting off five offensive linemen, Goff, Gurley and either Tyler Higbee or Gerald Everett. Gurley ran out of time with cramps and a knee injury prevented Kupp from winning against the 49ers on Sunday, but when these guys are in good health, they are on the field more than 95 percent of the time.
When the Rams do not play football, McVay showed little interest in giving his guys all representatives The starters played a bit during the 2017 pre-season by learning McVay's pattern for the first time, but in 2018, McVay left his stars throughout the show schedule. Goff did not throw any passes, none of his coaches made a run and Gurley did not touch the ball just once in August. It could have hurt your fanciful pre-season team's chances, but McVay rightly wanted his stars to stay healthy and cool for the regular season.
It was not the first time that McVay had rested his players in a relatively meaningless moment. When the Rams defeated the Titans in the 16th week of last season, they won the NFC West tournament and secured a home play-off. Los Angeles had something to play, knowing that it would have gone from seed 3 to seed 4 when it had been beaten by the 49ers in the 17th week, while the Panthers or Saints were winning their games.
There was also another motivator in play. Gurley had just finished the best playoff game (weeks 14-16) in NFL history to help the Rams out over the western summit and as we approach the last week of the year it was a viable MVP candidate. Gurley also had a 13-yard lead over Kansas City's Kareem Hunt for the title of world champion, a nod that Gurley would likely have wanted on his resume when he approached the table. negotiations when he became eligible for an extension of the off-season.
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Nobody would have blamed McVay for playing his players, especially Gurley, to try to make sure the Rams finished with the top three and that Gurley made one last push for MVP. Instead, McVay was sitting up for anyone who sweated in a RAM uniform during the season. Goff, Gurley, L.A. scored three batting goals, and four of the five starting linemen all escaped the offensive. Aaron Donald, Lamarcus Joyner, Alec Ogletree were all in defense, while Robert Quinn and Trumaine Johnson played two series. The Rams lost 34-13, but they retained the third seed after the defeat of the Panthers and Saints.
There is certainly evidence that the Rams will rest their stars if they play games that have no significant impact on their chances of participating in the playoffs. So what are the chances that we should worry about it before the 17th week?
The Rams are 7-0 and have a four-game lead over the Seahawks, who hold second place in the NFC West, taking the tiebreaker into account. ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) already thinks the Rams have won a playoff spot and have a 99.4% chance of winning the West. They have 1.5 games ahead of the Saints by 5-1 for the first list lead in the NFC, and they already hold the tie breaker on the Vikings 4-2-1.
Let's be cautious and consider the chances of the Rams getting the top spot in the NFC per week, per FPI. Obviously, the Rams could end up facing meaningless matches at the end of the season as they compete in 2 or 3 seeds, but that's the broadest possible look at when Rams could start watching a piece of football meaningless.
According to the REIT, there is a 8.6% chance that the Rams will get the best NFC rankings by the 14th week, which means that they will then have three games meaningless – against the Eagles , the Cardinals and the 49ers – to end their season. Two of those games, against the Eagles and Cardinals, would coincide with the last two weeks of the traditional playoffs. Here are the chances for the Rams to win the conference outright by week:
| The week | Opponent | The chances of winning the NFC * |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | at Bears | 8.6% |
| 15 | vs Eagles | 31.1 percent |
| 16 | in the Cardinals | 60.4 percent |
| 17 | 49ers | 87.2% |
| * By REIT | ||
Again, these numbers are conservative – unpacking the tiebreakers by the end of the year and the FPI estimates that the Rams have a 87.2% chance of finishing with the first. head of the CNF in January. We are probably looking at more than a one in three chance that the Rams have nothing to play for the week of the fantastic football championship this week.
A reprieve?
Would McVay change his mind and play his stars in meaningless games this time around? If you were trying to argue that the Rams had not taken advantage of their decision to rank their stars, you could argue your case. the The 2017 playoffs did not go well for them. A Falcons defense that ranked 22nd in the DVOA during the season limited the Rams to 13 points in four trips to the red zone while erasing their superb historic performance after the take. Gurley had 101 yards in 14 carries, but Goff averaged only 5.6 yards per attempt.
Could you argue that the Rams were rusty and that this was reflected in a neglected offensive performance? May be. The problem is that the two Los Angeles turnovers in this game were handed over to Pro Bowl return pro Pharoh Cooper, who blocked a punt and escaped the ball for a return. Cooper was not only one of the few Rams to play in the 49ers defeat in the 17th week, but his role expanded. Four of Cooper's 19 targets for the season came in the final game of the regular season, while he caught two passes for 30 yards. We can never know if the Rams would have played better if they had escaped their stars in the 17th week, but we also do not know if Goff or Goff could have suffered an injury that could have jeopardized the performance. offense, as Wes Welker did when he tore his ACL in the last game of the 2009 Patriots campaign.
To be honest, after sitting with their offensive players during the entire 2018 preseason, the Rams also played poorly during the first half of their first day of the season against the Raiders, who have already started 1-5. Oakland led 13-10 at halftime. After half-time, the Rams scored 23 unanswered points. If they were rusty, they were not long.
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Is it possible that McVay changes his mind and decides to start playing his weapons in meaningless games in December? Of course. Maybe the Rams win the 14th week and McVay does not think it's wise to sit down his players for three consecutive weeks in December. He plays against them during the 15th week and halfway through the 16th week. Sitting players for two or three regular season games is different than sitting for one.
At the same time, McVay has never shown a strong propensity to half measure these opportunities. With all the reasons to play against Gurley during a 17th week match that was almost significant for the team and incredibly significant for his back, McVay sat down. In the pre-season, McVay sat that everyone would be upset to lose to players who were not members of the 2017 team, like Marcus Peters, Ndamukong Suh and Aqib Talib. Apart from individual players with a history of injury like Rob Gronkowski, every league coach sends the vast majority of his starters to at least a football half in the preseason.
It takes a perfect storm for this to be a worthwhile thing for your fantasy team. If the Rams were not far ahead of the rest of the league, there would be no reason to worry about them in the face of multiple meaningless parties in December. If McVay was not very vigilant about the rest of his players, you would not need to be warned that the Rams are resting their guys. I do not know if I'd be brave enough to do it myself, but if you're in a fantastic league of the season and you're going to play in the playoffs, you have to at least think about doing it. of trading. far away your rams.
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Ryan Clark explains that in terms of victory against the Rams for the best of the NFC, the Saints have the best chance of doing so.
The unbeaten team that made rest his stars
There is a team that has done something like this in even more controversial circumstances. The 2009 Colts were 14-0 and led the Jets 15-10 early in the third quarter of week 16 when freshman Jim Caldwell coached Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. Curtis Painter, third member of the team, came in and quickly ended the offense, losing a fumble for a touchdown, while creating a first against six goods in the second half.
The Colts lost, ruining their unbeaten season. They reinstated Manning in training for the first quarter of the 17th week before sending him back to Painter, who also lost that match. The Jets, who were so close to being eliminated from the playoffs after the 15th week, that coach Rex Ryan cried at the post-game press conference and told the media that his team was "obviously at the end of the playoffs, "beating the Colts then the Bengals do in the post-season.
The Jets and Colts met in Indianapolis during the AFC championship game. This time, the Colts went to Manning and he was brilliant, scoring 377 yards and three touchdowns against the league's best defense. The bet worked: Caldwell beat his stars in the middle of an unbeaten season to go to the Super Bowl XLIV and did it, although they lost to the Miami Saints. McVay will have to wonder if his seated stars will give him a better chance to beat teams like the Saints on the road to the Super Bowl.
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