How much social security will I get? A step-by-step guide – The Motley Fool



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Social security is an extremely important program for American seniors. Benefits paid by social security account for about one-third of all the income of seniors and the majority of social security recipients receive 50% or more of their income from their retirement benefits.

Because social security is so important to the financial well-being of most seniors, it makes sense to know how much income you can expect from the program. With this in mind, here's a step-by-step approach to determining your expected social security benefit, as well as tips on how to strengthen your retirement benefits.

Social security card wrapped in money.

Source of the image: Getty Images.

Step 1: Determine if you qualify for a pension benefit

The first step in determining social security that you could get is to determine if you qualify for a retirement benefit. You can qualify for a social security retirement benefit in two main ways: through your own work record or your spouse's work record.

To qualify for a Social Security retirement benefit based on your own work record, you must have earned 40 Social Security "credits" throughout your career. Starting in 2018, a single credit represents a profit of $ 1,320 subject to payroll taxes. (The payroll tax is the main source of funding for social security, and for the vast majority of workers, it applies to all working income of up to $ 128,400 in 2018.)

You can get a maximum of four Social Security credits a year. The simplified explanation is that you will be entitled to a retirement benefit if you have earned (and paid a social tax) at least $ 5,280 for at least 10 different years. If you are unsure of obtaining sufficient credits, you can check your eligibility status by viewing your annual social security statement which you can access by creating an account on the website. the Social Security Administration, SSA.gov.

If you do not qualify for retirement benefits based on your own work record, you may be eligible for a spousal benefit based on your spouse's work record. Spousal benefits are commonly used when a spouse is primarily a stay-at-home parent. I will discuss further the benefits of the spouse later, but in the short version, a spousal benefit may be equal to one-half of the major income earner's pension benefits.

Step 2: Adjust all your annual earnings according to inflation

Let's turn now to the formula for calculating social security benefits. The first step is to list all your annual earnings figures for your entire professional career, up to a taxable maximum for each year. Just like your eligibility status, this information is available on your annual social security statement.

For example, in 2015, the maximum amount of earnings subject to payroll tax was $ 118,500. Thus, when creating your list, your 2015 figure would be either your actual earned income for the year or the taxable maximum, whichever is lower.

Once all of your annual income figures are listed, they are then indexed for inflation. The Social Security Administration (SSA) publishes a spreadsheet of the indexing factors you would use for each year's earnings. For example, the index factor for 1995 is currently 1.97, so if you make $ 50,000 that year, you multiply it by 1.97 to arrive at $ 98,500 of inflation-indexed earnings. You then repeat this process for each year of work.

Step 3: Find the 35 highest corrected years of inflation

After indexing all your annual earnings based on inflation, the next step is to narrow down the list to your 35 richest years.

The social security benefit formula is based on your income in the 35 years you earned the most (again, adjusted for inflation). If you worked for less than 35 years, you would use zeros to fill in the missing points. For example, if you worked for only 32 years, your list should contain 32 years of inflation-indexed earnings and three "0" entries.

Step 4: Calculate your average indexed monthly earnings (AIME)

The next step is to calculate your average indexed monthly income, or AIME, which serves as the basis for your Social Security retirement benefits.

To calculate this, add the top 35 digits of your inflation-indexed income, then divide the total by 35 to get your annual average. Divide again by 12 to get to your AIME.

Step 5: Determine Your Primary Insurance Amount (PIA)

Once your AIME has been calculated, it can be combined with a formula to determine your basic pension benefit. This is also known as your primary insurance amount, or PIA. Note that your EIP does not necessarily match the amount that the Social Security Administration will pay you each month, but we'll come back to that in a moment.

In 2018, the AIP is calculated by adding the following elements:

  • 90% of the first $ 895 of AIME
  • 32% of AIME over $ 895 and less than or equal to $ 5,397
  • 15% of AIME greater than $ 5,397

The sum of the amounts above will be your PIA.

There is one often overlooked point that you should be aware of: Your PIA is calculated using the benefit formula in effect during the year in which you became eligible to apply. social Security. do not the formula in effect when you actually ask for your benefit. In other words, the SSA will use the formula in effect at age 62, even if you wait much later to start collecting your retirement benefits.

To be clear, you consider all your earnings when calculating your indexed monthly earnings, including any income you earned after age 62. However, you will still use the formula in effect at age 62, even if you work several more years.

The good news is that the structure of the formula remains the same every year, which means that the multiplier factors of 90%, 32% and 15% do not change. Only income thresholds, also known as "curvature points", change from year to year ($ 895 and $ 5,397 in the 2018 formula). If you are trying to determine your social security benefit and have had 62 years before 2018, you can find historical turning points on the SSA website.

Step 6: Adjust according to your required age

The amount of primary insurance, or PIA, is the social security benefit to which you would be entitled if you decide to claim benefits from exactly your full retirement age. This is the age at which you would be entitled to claim all of your calculated social security benefit, and this is often the age at which you take social security "on time". However, Americans can choose to claim at any time between age 62 and 70, and the majority do not claim benefits at the age of full retirement. In fact, the most common age for social security is 62 years old – as soon as possible.

If you choose to apply for social security before reaching retirement age, social security benefits will be reduced permanently, while deciding to delay your social security

We'll see how much your benefit decreases or increases depending on your filing date, but first, here's a quick chart to help you find your full retirement age:

year of birth

Social security full age retirement

1954 or before

66 years

1955

66 years old, 2 months old

1956

66 years, 4 months

1957

66 years and 6 months

1958

66 years and 8 months

1959

66 years, 10 months

1960 or later

67 years

Data source: SSA.

If you do not apply for Social Security retirement benefits at retirement age, the effect on your monthly benefit will depend on your delay or delay. Here's how your PIA will change depending on when you claim benefits:

  • If you claim social security no later than 36 months before the retirement age, your benefits will be reduced by 0.56% per month that you claimed earlier. This represents 6.67% per annum during the three years preceding retirement age.
  • If you claim social security more than 36 months before your retirement age, your benefits will be reduced by 20% more 0.42% per month beyond 36 months earlier (ie 5% per year).
  • If you claim social security after your full retirement age, your benefit will be permanently increased by 0.67% for each month you choose to delay. These benefits are called deferred retirement credits.

An example of calculation of social security

Consider an example. We will say that you are 62 in 2018 (then you were born in 1956) and you want to estimate how much you can expect from social security if you claim your benefit this year. We will say that you worked for 40 years and that the average monthly indexed income of your 35 highest-paid years is $ 6,000. (Note: This covers steps 1 to 4, as previously noted.)

To calculate your PIA, the amount you can expect at retirement age, we can include $ 6,000 in the benefit formula described in step five:

  • 90% of the first $ 895 = $ 805.50
  • 32% of the amount greater than $ 895 and less than or equal to $ 5,397 = $ 1,440.64
  • 15% of the amount greater than $ 5,397 = $ 90.45

The addition of the three parts of the formula gives us an AIP of $ 2,336.59. This is the amount at which you would be entitled to full retirement age of 66 years and four months plus the cost of living adjustments that are given by that time.

However, if you chose to apply for your retirement benefit at age 62, it would be four years and four months before the retirement age. Under the reduction formula described in step six, your monthly benefit would be reduced by 26.67% in total. So, if you claim social security as soon as you reach the age of 62 this year, you will receive a monthly retirement benefit of $ 1,713.50, or about $ 623 less per month only if you waited for the age of full retirement. On the other hand, if you had to wait until age 70, your benefit would be increased to $ 3,022.

In short, the age at which you decide to claim social security is large difference.

Here's how to get a rough estimate of your benefits

This formula may seem a little complicated and it is the case. In addition, this poses some problems, especially if you are not 62 years old or older. For example, you do not know for sure how much you will earn for the rest of your career, and it's impossible to know what the flex points of the social security formula will be at age 62.

However, if you want a good estimate of the amount of your future social security benefits, there is a simple way to do this without any calculation: check your latest Social Security statement.

The SSA produces annual social security returns for all US workers and you can find yours by creating a "my Social Security" account on www.ssa.gov if you have not already done so. Your statement contains an estimate of your full pension benefits based on your actual work history and estimated future earnings. In addition, your social security statement can tell you the estimated effect of the early or late claim, the amount of disability benefits if you become disabled, and how much your survivors may be entitled to if you die prematurely. , and eligibility information for Medicare sickness benefits.

In summary, your social security statement contains valuable information, and all Americans should take a few minutes to read theirs once a year.

What if you did not work? An overview of the benefits of the spouse

As I mentioned earlier, if you did not work or if your career earnings were low compared to your spouse's, a spousal benefit based on your work record could be available to you. retirement income.

Here is the general idea of ​​how it works. Your own retirement benefit (if any) will be calculated and paid first. If your calculated retirement benefit is less than half of your spouse's retirement benefits, the HSO can pay you a spousal benefit to make up the difference. In other words, if your spouse is entitled to a monthly benefit of $ 2,000 at full retirement age (their PIA), a spousal benefit may allow you to earn a maximum retirement income of $ 1,000. per month.

There are some important points about whether you think you (or your spouse) are eligible for a spousal benefit.

  • To receive a spousal benefit, the major income earner must also receive his / her own benefits.
  • There is no separate claim for a spousal benefit; the SSA will automatically take into account your marital status and pay you the most important type of benefit.
  • Spousal benefits may be permanently reduced if they are claimed before the age of full retirement of the recipient of the spousal benefit. In my example of a couple whose spouse who earns the most money is entitled to a benefit of $ 2,000 at the retirement age, a spouse who has never worked would have not entitled to $ 1,000 unless
  • The rates of reduction of spousal benefits are slightly different from those of normal retirement benefits. If claimed before the age of full retirement, spousal benefits will be reduced by approximately 0.69% per month up to 36 months in advance and 0.42%. % for each month beyond 36 years.
  • Unlike social security pension benefits, spousal benefits do not include deferred retirement credits. In other words, there is no financial reason to wait until the age of full retirement to claim a spousal benefit.

A word on inflation

Inflation is another factor that could affect the amount you receive from social security, especially if you are unable to claim your benefit for a few years.

Every year, Social Security offers beneficiaries cost-of-living adjustments, or strokes, to help retirees maintain the purchasing power of their benefits. Under current legislation, social security work injury benefits are based on the Consumer Price Index for urban employees, or CPI-W.

Thus, during a given year, if the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) determines that the CPI-W has increased by 2%, the Social Security Administration will increase benefits by 2%. Over several years, if not decades, cost-of-living adjustments can have a significant impact on the amount of social security benefits you receive.

The bottom line is that if you are trying to get an estimate of your to come up The benefits of social security, it is important to keep in mind that the calculation methods described here, as well as the estimates in your social security statement, are all available. aujourd & # 39; hui dollars.

For example, if you are now 62 years old, you calculate the amount of your primary insurance at $ 2,000 per month, and the cost of living adjustments average 3% per year, you will receive about $ 2,250 a month. the age of retirement to claim your benefit.

Is social security broken? What happens if it is?

Although the financial situation of social security is too complex to be examined in detail here, I would like to address a common misconception that social security is broken.

Social Security is not broken. In fact, social security has reserves of nearly $ 3 trillion and the program was in surplus last year. For the moment, social security has a lot of money.

That being said, the program is expected to post a deficit in 2018 and the annual deficit is expected to increase over time. In a nutshell, the combination of baby boomers who are retiring en masse and the longer life expectancy of Americans will lead to more people receiving social security benefits for longer periods. According to the latest projections, social security reserves will be depleted by 2034 if nothing is done.

To be perfectly clear, if the Social Security reserves exhaust as expected, this does not mean that the benefits will disappear. The new payroll taxes should be sufficient to cover 77% of all promised benefits. Therefore, in the worst case, we are talking about an overall reduction of 23%. However, history tells us that Congress will do Something before the money runs out – even if it's a short-term solution.

Could the benefit formula or full retirement age change?

As a final reflection, keep in mind that the financial future of Social Security is not really bright, it is likely that some kind of reform package will have to be put in place.

At this point, one may wonder how Congress will correct social security, but the options are reduced to two basic categories: tax increases and benefit reductions. Tax increases are the most popular option among the American public because most people say that it is important to preserve social security benefits for future generations.

However, a form of benefit reduction could certainly be part of a package of reforms. The generalized reductions are extremely unpopular, but other forms of benefit reduction could include a further increase in the full retirement age or a change in the benefit formula.

Now, virtually all the people in power who have expressed an opinion on the issue want to keep Social Security exactly the same for those who are retired or retired, so if you are over 50, you are not going to pay for it. probably not much to worry about. On the other hand, if you are younger, there is a good chance that the calculation of your social security benefits will be a little different.

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