How Pete Flores upset a Democrat to win a Senate seat in the State of Texas

Republican Pete Flores' victory in a pro-Democrat Texas Senate district sparked GOP jubilation and democratic scrutiny less than two months before the November election.

"All this talk about a" blue wave "? Well, the tide came out," said Republican Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick at the Flores election night in San Antonio.

Flores beat Democrat Pete Gallego, a former US representative, by 6 percentage points in the second round of elections for District 19 of the Senate, where Senator Carlos Uresti, D-San Antonio, resigned earlier this year. year after 11 convictions. The victory made Flores the first Hispanic Republican in the Texas Senate and increased the majority of the 21-member GOP, a key addition as the caucus moves towards November to retain its majority.

Democrats reacted quickly late Tuesday to accuse Governor Greg Abbott of scheduling the special election at a time when voter turnout should be low and favor his party. But they were nevertheless demoralized Wednesday, trying to figure out how they left a valuable place in a neighborhood where Uresti was re-elected several times and that Hillary Clinton won by 12 in 2016.

The Gallego campaign revealed that in the end, he was not able to motivate his constituents as much as Flores.

"Our investment was at the base and was trying to increase the number of Democratic voters in the most densely populated areas where people did not go out and try to reduce the clutter of all the other campaigns that targeted the month of November. … being much harder to make people understand that an extremely important race has taken place today, "said Christian Archer, Gallego's strategist.

The relative enthusiasm for Flores was evident in the largest Republican counties in the district – places like Medina County, where he sent Gallego with 80% of the votes. Flores' margins in the Red Counties were more than enough to offset Gallego's advantage in the voting-rich Bexar County, giving Gallego a modest 54 percent of the vote.

The Flores campaign claimed to have benefited from a number of factors throughout the race, starting with the deep Democratic division that took place while Gallego was clashing with the state's representative. , Roland Gutierrez, D-San Antonio. July 31 special election. Gutierrez, who then won Bexar County, never approved Gallego in the second round., and Wednesday, both parties had different accounts on the degree of effort, if any, made by Gallego to woo Gutierrez.

But Flores also had to prove himself in his own party and stand as a candidate by consensus on July 31, when two other less well-known Republicans took part in the ballot. Flores managed this with only a few days to lose, gaining late admissions from one who is who of the best Texas Republicans, starting with US Senator John Cornyn, then Patrick, US Senator Ted Cruz and Abbott.

"We knew that if we could participate in the count, we would have extra help because the stakes would be clear … and the value of the win would be obvious," said Flores consultant Matt Mackowiak.

The 11th hour amendments helped to propel Flores from third place in the advance poll to the top spot of the polls on polling day – and a first overall decisive on July 31st. the vote and the three Republicans reported 40%. In a statement on Election Night, Texas Democratic Party chairman Gilberto Hinojosa said it was clear that "Texans at work are massively choosing Democrats to represent their interests."

In the second round, the high-level attendance proved vital – especially that of Patrick, who used his campaign account for nearly $ 175,000 to help Flores send messages, polls and surveys. advertising. Gallego had well-heeled donors, but nothing like the campaign machines that Flores was able to import with Patrick's help.

There was also a united front of political action committees assisting Flores, including groups such as Texas Associate Republicans and Empower Texans – two outfits who were bitterly disagreeing during the primaries and early elections of this year. The Texas Right to Life anti-abortion group has been involved particularly early in broadcasting digital ads aimed at disqualifying Gallego among conservative Hispanic voters in the neighborhood.

One of the biggest differences between the two campaigns was media spending. Flores has taken a significant lead on radio ads beating Gallego on the air for at least a week. And Flores went on TV, while Gallego never did it. Archer defended the decision on Wednesday, saying he did not see it as an effective use of money in a district like the SD-19, for example by investing in an aggressive field program.

In their advertising and elsewhere, campaigns have adopted different approaches to messaging. Gallego presented a largely positive argument about the safe and reliable choice – "I Trust Pete" was the slogan – while Flores was not afraid to launch attacks, airing commercials on radio and television to convince Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi.

The loss of Gallego was not due to a lack of money. Although he ran out of his campaign funds with Gutierrez, he was able to replenish himself considerably and have more cash – $ 150,000 – than Flores had done in eight days. That figure left political observers wondering Tuesday night whether he had left any serious money unspent, but Archer said the campaign had burned most of the past few days and ended the race with less than 15,000 dollars to the bank.

The early voting period, from 10 to 14 September, has given encouraging signs to Flores. According to an analysis of the Texas Election Source website, most of the largest increases in the expected turnout to full turnout in the July 31 elections occurred in the counties Flores had defeated Gallego.

At the end of the day, the largest increase in the percentage of participation in a special election was recorded in four years. according to the office of the secretary of state.

Yet Democrats accused Abbott of having called the special election at a time that guaranteed a much lower turnout than he had cast at the November poll. Hinojosa, the chairman of the Democratic State Party, said in an election day statement that Abbott "stole an election, plain and simple … denying the people of West Texas and the US border representation in Mexico that shares their values ​​".

Abbott spokesman John Wittman countered in a statement: "When it comes to stealing things from SD 19, I think the Texas Democrats, under the leadership of Senator Carlos Uresti, know this The reason for this was the largest increase in participation rates between a second round and a special election in four years because Colonel Flores, whose life was dedicated to the forces of order 39 is focused on issues of interest to Texans. "

With Flores, there are now 21 Senate Republicans, which leaves room for the party in the run-up to the November elections with up to three GOP seats in play. That means Republicans can lose two of these seats and still have the 19 members required to submit legislation without democratic support.

The value of the SD-19 pickup truck was not lost on the caucus, which unanimously agreed with Flores for two weeks after the start of the fight.

"The Republican caucus has never had 21 members until today, so it's a two-thirds majority," said Sen. Paul Bettencourt, who chairs the caucus. "It's a huge advantage to pass a law like property tax reform."

Some Republicans also saw Tuesday night as an omen for the 23rd congressional district, a permanent swing district that Gallego once represented in Congress and which overlaps much of the SD-19. US representative Will Hurd, R-Helotes, is fighting for reelection in November against Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones, who was present Tuesday night as Gallego was speaking to his supporters.

"The resistance collided with reality tonight in SD19," said Jack Pandol, a spokesman for the Republican National Congress Committee, in a statement. "No one should be more worried about this Republican explosion than liberal Gina Ortiz Jones, whose chances at the TX-23 are diminishing by the day."

Jones' campaign echoed other Democrats saying that Abbott had scheduled the special elections "to defeat what would happen in November" – and dismissed the idea that his chances had diminished.

"We see it every day on our campaign – voters are excited about the opportunities, excited about the change and excited to vote for Gina on November 6," Jones spokeswoman Noelle Rosellini said.

Disclosure: The Office of the Secretary of State of Texas has been a financial supporter of the Texas Tribune, a non-partisan, non-profit press organization funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in Tribune journalism. Find a complete list of them here.