How Republican leadership broke the four rules of crisis management

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On July 9, 2018, Brett Kavanaugh was appointed to fill the vacancy left by Justice Kennedy in the United States Supreme Court, with the prospect of securing a Republican majority for another generation.

However, in its actions of the last ten days, the Republican leadership has compromised its objectives by not respecting the rules of crisis management:

• Recognize the crisis as a crisis
• Get as much information as possible as quickly as possible, especially any negative information
• Avoid saying everything that needs to be removed
• Avoid doing something that looks like a concealment

Confirmation hearings

Kavanaugh's confirmation hearings before the Senate Judiciary Committee were held from September 4 to 7. The hearings were interrupted several times by senators and Democrat protesters. At the end of the hearings, a small majority of Americans surveyed did not approve of Kavanaugh's nomination, a first for Supreme Court candidates.

Nevertheless, it appeared that Republican leaders were on their way to achieving their primary goal of appointing Kavanaugh to the court and possibly preserving his other goals, such as supporting Republican women in elections. mid-term.

Crisis

On September 12, the existence of a complaint against Kavanaugh, by a "woman who asked not to be identified", was made public, accusing her of attempting to force to go to high school. . She said the incident occurred in 1982, when he was 17 years old and that he was a student at the Georgetown Preparatory School. She was a 15 year old high school girl. The woman stated that she was able to free herself and that she had sought treatment for psychological distress afterwards.

On September 13, Senator Feinstein returned the case to the FBI, including the identity of the accuser.

On September 14, Kavanaugh issued a statement to the White House saying, "I categorically and unequivocally deny this allegation. I did not do it in high school or at any time.

On 16 September, the accuser was publicly revealed by The Washington Post, who will be Dr. Christine Blasey Ford, professor of respected psychology at Palo Alto University. She has written or co-authored several books and numerous scientific articles. She lives in Palo Alto, California, with her husband, whom she married in 2002, and her two sons. In 2017, she participated in a local women's march to protest against Trump and attended a march for science in San Francisco to protest Trump's cuts to trump administration but did not appear to have been active in democratic politics.

Recognize the crisis as a crisis

The first failure of Republican leadership was the inability to recognize the crisis as a crisis. The first instinct of the Republicans was to reject the accusation as partisan politics and to speedily advance the vote on Kavanaugh's appointment. 36 years ago, a single charge of a woman was presented as "a little hiccup" (Senator Heller).

However, once the identity and work history of the accuser were known, first to the FBI on September 13, and then to the public on September 16, it became clear that she deserved to be heard, as Senators Flake and Collins pointed out. Indeed, if the Republican leaders had taken a step forward, it would have risked not having enough Republican votes to succeed.

What the Republican leaders did not understand initially was that it was a real crisis for Kavanaugh's appointment. If the accusation was made by a partisan politician, that would have been a thing. It was another when it was done by a highly respected teacher, with no active record in partisan politics and no particular purpose. In the middle of the #MeToo movement, the charge was to be a sensation.

Get all the information

The White House issued a brief categorical denial on 14 September. It was only a week later that Kavanaugh met with the White House for a long briefing, trying to find out all his answers to the questions. (Even then, Kavanaugh refused to answer certain questions that he considered too personal.) Meanwhile, a flood of information has arrived on the public scene, making the accusation more and more credible. .

According to Ford, Kavanaugh's friend Mark Judge was in the room when Kavanaugh allegedly assaulted her. The judge wrote about the amount of alcohol he and his classmates consumed in high school and other hot behaviors. (The judge said he did not remember the event and did not want to testify.)

It appeared that Georgetown Prep, Kavanaugh's private boys' school, promoted a world of turbulent parties, alcohol abuse, drugs and misogynistic attitudes toward women. These elite schools were even "bastions of misogyny," according to Greg Jaffe, who attended one of them and is now a reporter at the Washington Post.

Kavanaugh himself seemed to allude to this culture, when Kavanaugh said in a speech in 2015 at the Columbus School of Law at the Catholic University: "Fortunately, we had a good saying that we held at this day … happens at Georgetown Prep, stays at Georgetown Prep. "It was a good thing for all of us, I think."

Efforts to contain the investigation

Once the Republican leaders accepted the need to hear Ford, they then tried to limit the investigation to Kavanaugh's and Ford's testimonies alone, without witnesses and without FBI investigation. The reasons were not convincing.

• "The FBI does not investigate such questions." (He does it all the time.)
• "There is no time to investigate." (The survey of Anita Hill was completed in 3 days)
• "There is no need to investigate." (If so, why was there an audience?)

The Republicans also allowed themselves to put themselves in a defensive position, giving the impression that it was Dr. Ford who wanted the truth to be told and they had not done so.

• Ford wants the FBI to investigate. Kavanaugh does not do it.
• Ford wants other witnesses to be heard. Kavanaugh does not do it.
• Ford wants the alleged eyewitness to testify. Kavanaugh (and the eyewitness) do not do it.
• Ford has passed a lie detector test. Kavanaugh does not have.

Republicans in denial

As these details were emerging, Republican leaders began to defend themselves and raise issues that will need to be changed or removed later:

• "It had to be someone else." (Ed Whelan)
• "Dr. Ford is confused or confused. (Senator Hatch)
• "If that had happened, it would have been reported at the time." (Trump)

• "There are gaps in Dr. Ford's story, which raises doubts about its truth. (Senator Cornyn)
• "Others have confirmed the character of Dr. Ford, so it could not happen." (Trump)
• "It happened so long ago that we can never know, one way or the other" (Senator Cornyn).
• Even if it happened, it does not matter. The boys will be boys. It was another time.

Jumping The Gun: the resemblance of an investigation

Having crossed the threshold once and accepted that there would be an investigation, the Republican leaders then said things suggesting that it was not a real investigation, undermining their own credibility,

"In the very near future, Judge Kavanaugh will be at the US Supreme Court," McConnell said to religious clerks at the Valuators' Summit on Friday. "So, my friends, keep the faith, do not be shaken by all that. We will go through it and do our work. "

On September 21, after days of moderation, President Trump hinted that the charge could not be true because it was not filed with the authorities at the time, revealing his conclusion, even before to have heard Dr. Ford.

Multiple delays maximized public attention

The sensational nature of the charge has drawn public attention to Kavanaugh's investiture. This attention has been accentuated by the multiple delays of change. The hearing was set for the first time on September 20th. Once it was agreed that Dr. Ford would be heard, she imposed conditions. He was then asked to respond by September 21, September 22, and September 23, without answering the question of whether the vote would be held on September 24 or September 27. to follow the nature of the negotiation "would it be / is it not going"?

Net profit

Do not forget what is happening at the Ford and Kavanaugh hearing, which now seems to be confirmed for September 27th. Failure to comply with the crisis management rules, Kavanaugh no longer has a chance to be confirmed.

In addition, Republicans have ensured that Democrats will be even more energetic in the mid-term elections in November. The Republican brand with women is also likely to be weakened.

More importantly, by politicizing the appointment process, the authenticity and apolitical nature of the Supreme Court has been compromised.

Note: The author is registered as an independent.

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On July 9, 2018, Brett Kavanaugh was appointed to fill the vacancy left by Justice Kennedy in the United States Supreme Court, with the prospect of securing a Republican majority for another generation.

However, in its actions of the last ten days, the Republican leadership has compromised its objectives by not respecting the rules of crisis management:

• Recognize the crisis as a crisis
• Get as much information as possible as quickly as possible, especially any negative information
• Avoid saying everything that needs to be removed
• Avoid doing something that looks like a concealment

Confirmation hearings

Kavanaugh's confirmation hearings before the Senate Judiciary Committee were held from September 4 to 7. The hearings were interrupted several times by senators and Democrat protesters. At the end of the hearings, a small majority of Americans surveyed did not approve of Kavanaugh's nomination, a first for Supreme Court candidates.

Nevertheless, it appeared that Republican leaders were on their way to achieving their primary goal of appointing Kavanaugh to the court and possibly preserving his other goals, such as supporting Republican women in elections. mid-term.

Crisis

On September 12, the existence of a complaint against Kavanaugh, by a "woman who asked not to be identified", was made public, accusing her of attempting to force to go to high school. . She said the incident occurred in 1982, when he was 17 years old and that he was a student at the Georgetown Preparatory School. She was a 15 year old high school girl. The woman stated that she was able to free herself and that she had sought treatment for psychological distress afterwards.

On September 13, Senator Feinstein returned the case to the FBI, including the identity of the accuser.

On September 14, Kavanaugh issued a statement to the White House saying, "I categorically and unequivocally deny this allegation. I did not do it in high school or any other time.

On 16 September, the accuser was publicly revealed by The Washington Post, who will be Dr. Christine Blasey Ford, professor of respected psychology at Palo Alto University. She has written or co-authored several books and numerous scientific articles. She lives in Palo Alto, California, with her husband, whom she married in 2002, and her two sons. In 2017, she participated in a local women's march to protest against Trump and attended a march for science in San Francisco to protest Trump's cuts to trump administration but did not appear to have been active in democratic politics.

Recognize the crisis as a crisis

The first failure of Republican leadership was the inability to recognize the crisis as a crisis. The first instinct of the Republicans was to reject the accusation as partisan politics and to speedily advance the vote on Kavanaugh's appointment. 36 years ago, a single charge of a woman was presented as "a little hiccup" (Senator Heller).

However, once the identity and work history of the accuser were known, first to the FBI on September 13, and then to the public on September 16, it became clear that she deserved to be heard, as Senators Flake and Collins pointed out. Indeed, if the Republican leaders had taken a step forward, it would have risked not having enough Republican votes to succeed.

What the Republican leaders did not understand initially was that it was a real crisis for Kavanaugh's appointment. If the accusation was made by a partisan politician, that would have been a thing. It was another when it was done by a highly respected teacher, with no active record in partisan politics and no particular purpose. In the middle of the #MeToo movement, the charge was to be a sensation.

Get all the information

The White House issued a brief categorical denial on 14 September. It was only a week later that Kavanaugh met with the White House for a long briefing, trying to find out all his answers to the questions. (Even then, Kavanaugh refused to answer certain questions that he considered too personal.) Meanwhile, a flood of information has arrived on the public scene, making the accusation more and more credible. .

According to Ford, Kavanaugh's friend Mark Judge was in the room when Kavanaugh allegedly assaulted her. The judge wrote about the amount of alcohol he and his classmates consumed in high school and other hot behaviors. (The judge said he did not remember the event and did not want to testify.)

It appeared that Georgetown Prep, Kavanaugh's private boys' school, promoted a world of turbulent parties, alcohol abuse, drugs and misogynistic attitudes toward women. These elite schools were even "bastions of misogyny," according to Greg Jaffe, who attended one of them and is now a reporter at the Washington Post.

Kavanaugh himself seemed to allude to this culture, when Kavanaugh said in a speech in 2015 at the Columbus School of Law at the Catholic University: "Fortunately, we had a good saying that we held at this day … happens at Georgetown Prep, stays at Georgetown Prep. "It was a good thing for all of us, I think."

Efforts to contain the investigation

Once the Republican leaders accepted the need to hear Ford, they then tried to limit the investigation to Kavanaugh's and Ford's testimonies alone, without witnesses and without FBI investigation. The reasons were not convincing.

• "The FBI does not investigate such questions." (He does it all the time.)
• "There is no time to investigate." (The survey of Anita Hill was completed in 3 days)
• "There is no need to investigate." (If so, why was there an audience?)

The Republicans also allowed themselves to put themselves in a defensive position, giving the impression that it was Dr. Ford who wanted the truth to be told and they had not done so.

• Ford wants the FBI to investigate. Kavanaugh does not do it.
• Ford wants other witnesses to be heard. Kavanaugh does not do it.
• Ford wants the alleged eyewitness to testify. Kavanaugh (and the eyewitness) do not do it.
• Ford has passed a lie detector test. Kavanaugh does not have.

Republicans in denial

As these details were emerging, Republican leaders began to defend themselves and raise issues that will need to be changed or removed later:

• "It had to be someone else." (Ed Whelan)
• "Dr. Ford is confused or confused. (Senator Hatch)
• "If that had happened, it would have been reported at the time." (Trump)

• "There are gaps in Dr. Ford's story, which raises doubts about its truth. (Senator Cornyn)
• "Others have confirmed the character of Dr. Ford, so it could not happen." (Trump)
• "It happened so long ago that we can never know, one way or the other" (Senator Cornyn).
• Even if it happened, it does not matter. The boys will be boys. It was another time.

Jumping The Gun: the resemblance of an investigation

Having crossed the threshold once and accepted that there would be an investigation, the Republican leaders then said things suggesting that it was not a real investigation, undermining their own credibility,

"In the very near future, Judge Kavanaugh will be at the US Supreme Court," McConnell said to religious clerks at the Valuators' Summit on Friday. "So, my friends, keep the faith, do not be shaken by all that. We will go through it and do our work. "

On September 21, after days of moderation, President Trump hinted that the charge could not be true because it was not filed with the authorities at the time, revealing his conclusion, even before to have heard Dr. Ford.

Multiple delays maximized public attention

The sensational nature of the charge has drawn public attention to Kavanaugh's investiture. This attention has been accentuated by the multiple delays of change. The hearing was set for the first time on September 20th. Once it was agreed that Dr. Ford would be heard, she imposed conditions. He was then asked to respond by September 21, September 22, and September 23, without answering the question of whether the vote would be held on September 24 or September 27. to follow the nature of the negotiation "would it be / is it not going"?

Net profit

Do not forget what is happening at the Ford and Kavanaugh hearing, which now seems to be confirmed for September 27th. Failure to comply with the crisis management rules, Kavanaugh no longer has a chance to be confirmed.

In addition, Republicans have ensured that Democrats will be even more energetic in the mid-term elections in November. The Republican brand with women is also likely to be weakened.

More importantly, by politicizing the appointment process, the authenticity and apolitical nature of the Supreme Court has been compromised.

Note: The author is registered as an independent.