How to argue over whether the Democrats will reconquer the House

Less than two weeks away from election day, the battle for control of the House of Representatives is suddenly closing. As early as July, insiders in Washington claimed that Democrats seemed more likely than ever to win a majority. However, some recent data suggests that the battle will be much more competitive than it was a few weeks ago.

The Democrats are aware that the races are tightening, but are still confident that their chances of winning the House for the first time in eight years are as good as ever. They have the largest battlefield in a decade, making them competitive in traditionally Republican Maine Seats in New Mexico. But Republicans breathe a sigh of relief after seeing their grassroots voters suddenly enthusiastic about voting after the conflict battle to get Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.

"Our outlook is far better than it was a month ago," said a Republican working to help keep the GOP on Parliament. "But for us to hold the House, almost everything will have to break the GOP's way to the bottom right."

So, how are you? Here's how to discuss whether the Democrats will take over the House.

ASSISTING THE REPUBLICS, the polls are tightening in the most competitive races: A new poll by the Washington Post-Shar School shows that in 48 districts of the House, President Trump won a decision in 2016 that could decide the fate of the majority of the House, with the candidates speaking out equally. This means that Republicans are just as likely to win as Democrats in these races.

But: Democratic agents say it's actually a well thing. This means that their candidates are competitive in traditionally conservative districts such as Kansas, Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia, and Utah.

In other words, the Democrats must get 23 seats to take over Parliament, and this poll says they got a shot at 48 plus 21 other competitive seats won by Hillary Clinton.

[The 15 House seats most likely to flip are almost all trending toward Democrats]

HELPING DEMOCRATS, voters generally prefer them: By 10 percentage points, according to an analysis of recent polls conducted by Post, asking if voters prefer a Democrat to represent him in Congress or a Republican. History suggests that it is enough to boost popularity to help Democrats overthrow the House.

But: A recent NBC / Wall Street Journal poll found that the popularity of Democrats is driven by voters likely to vote in midterm elections, including Latinos and younger ones.

A Gallup poll in late September showed that about a quarter of voters under the age of 30 were "absolutely" certain to vote.

(Washington Post graphs)

(Washington Post)

The House of Democrats campaign committee is investing an unprecedented $ 30 million in millennial generation and color voting.

HELPING THE REPUBLICS, the enthusiasm of voters is now high on both sides: Throughout the electoral cycle, the Democrats enjoyed remarkable and remarkable electoral enthusiasm.

In the primaries, the country's Democrats recorded record participation and recorded a record number of candidates. In Texas, the representative of Pete Sessions, one of the most powerful congressional Republicans, risks losing his seat to the benefit of a well-financed Democratic challenger who has never wielded a mandate.

But: There is evidence that Kavanaugh's tragedy instilled some urgency into the previously Republican voters. The NBC-WSJ poll reveals that Democrats and Republicans are very excited to vote.

The post-Schar School survey revealed that 6 out of 10 voters in each party say they are more motivated to vote as a result of Kavanaugh's entry into the field. This sounds like a wash between the two sides, but it still boosts voters' enthusiasm for Republicans.

A Republican involved mid-term described the situation as follows: "Republicans who might not have been as enthusiastic about voting for Republicans have seen what's going on?" went to Washington during this whole process of confirmation and found that democrats' behavior was absurd and ridiculous, This is not what I want.

HELPING THE DEMOCRATS, Trump and the Republicans control all the major levers of government: Your taxes Your health care. The nation's deficit and the concerns you may have about your future and that of your family. Republicans are more vulnerable than Democrats to any of these issues because they control the White House, Congress, and have just sealed the Conservative control of the Supreme Court.

That's why the president's party usually loses congressional seats in the next election. This year, the problems of Republicans could be exacerbated as they control all from Washington. Polls showed that after the Republicans tried last summer to repeal Obamacare, voters had declared that they would judge Republicans responsible for any problem with the law passed by Democrats in 2010. .

(Washington Post graphs)

But an important counterpoint to this counterpoint: Trump does not seem popular enough to help Republicans resist all the other electoral struggles his party is currently facing. As Aaron Blake of The Fix recently calculated, the presidents who got Trump's approval lost far more than the 23 seats in the House that Republicans can not afford to lose.