[ad_1]
We are two laps from the 2018 World Cup group stage. The final decisive trick is here. This means that it is time to prepare for complicated scenarios, confusion of breakage and potential chaos.
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Eight nations – Uruguay, Russia, Spain, Portugal, France, Croatia, Belgium and England – are already qualified for the round of 16. Nine – Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Iran, Peru, Costa Rica, Tunisia, Panama and Poland – have been eliminated."data-reactid =" 17 ">Eight nations – Uruguay, Russia, Spain, Portugal, France, Croatia, Belgium and England – are already qualified for the round of 16. Nine – Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Iran, Peru, Costa Rica, Tunisia, Panama and Poland – have been eliminated.
There are 15 teams in the running for eight knockout rounds. And there are all kinds of crazy permutations, including four groups that could be decided by lottery. (An asterisk * indicates the groups below.)
There is also a potential for perverse incentives, where second place in a group might be preferable to first. We will arrive at all those. Below you will find an overview of the scenarios for the third day, group by group.
Portugal and Spain both need results in their last group matches to qualify for the knockout stages of the 2018 World Cup. (Getty)
But first, a look at the World Cup tiebreakers …
Tiebreakers
If two or more teams are tied for points, the 2018 FIFA World Cup rules provide for seven ties of equality …
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "1. Goal differential
2. Goals scored
3. Head-to-head result"data-reactid =" 43 ">1. Goal differential
2. Goals scored
3. Head-to-head result
In the case of a tie to three teams where the three teams are at the level of the goal differential and scored goals …
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "4. Difference of goals in matches between teams tied
5. Goals scored in matches between teams tied"data-reactid =" 45 ">4. Difference of goals in matches between teams tied
5. Goals scored in matches between teams tied
If the teams are still linked …
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "6. Fairplay – also known as the least yellow cards (unless one of the tied teams has caught a red card, in which case the FIFA scoring system comes into play. Card accounts can be found here).
7. Draw"data-reactid =" 47 ">6. Fairplay – also known as the least yellow cards (unless one of the tied teams has caught a red card, in which case the FIFA scoring system comes into play. Card accounts can be found here).
7. Draw
And yes, numbers 6 and 7 could easily come into play.
Group C *
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "All game times AND. Numbers in parentheses: (points | goal differential)"data-reactid =" 51 ">All game times AND. Numbers in parentheses: (points | goal differential)
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Tuesday 10 am: France (6 | 2) against Denmark (4 | 1) | Australia (1 | -1) against Peru (0 | -2)"data-reactid =" 52 ">Tuesday 10 am: France (6 | 2) against Denmark (4 | 1) | Australia (1 | -1) against Peru (0 | -2)
France is at the end and can win the first place with a draw. Denmark can secure a place in the round of 16 with a draw, and can win the group with a win.
Australia needs a win and a defeat in Denmark. If one or the other margin is greater than one, Australia gets through. If the scores are the same, Australia gets through. If both margins are one, and Denmark scores more goals in defeat than Australia in victory, the Danes survive. If they score the same number of goals – for example, a 2-1 defeat in Denmark and a 1-0 win in Australia – the discipline comes in. Australia currently has three yellow cards against four for Denmark. If it emerges … a lot.
Group D *
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Tuesday, 2 pm: Croatia (6 | 5) against Iceland (1 | -2) | Nigeria (3 | 0) against Argentina (1 | -3)"data-reactid =" 56 ">Tuesday, 2 pm: Croatia (6 | 5) against Iceland (1 | -2) | Nigeria (3 | 0) against Argentina (1 | -3)
Simple permutations: Croatia is through, and will be at the top of the group with at least one draw. On the other hand, Iceland and Argentina would both be eliminated. Nigeria advance with a win, or with a draw and no matter what an Iceland wins by several goals.
Argentina is at the heart of the complexity. He can advance with a win and a draw or defeat in Iceland. If Argentina and Iceland win, they will be tied on four points. Argentina should also reach a goal to reach the differential level.
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "[More on Group D: Why Nigeria’s win over Iceland aided Argentina]"data-reactid =" 59 ">[More on Group D: Why Nigeria’s win over Iceland aided Argentina]
If Argentina scores one goal more than Iceland and wins by one goal more than Iceland wins – say 2-0 and 1-0 – we would go to fair play, where the Yellow cards from Iceland would give it a major advantage (Argentina has three). If Iceland were to equalize the discipline standings, we would go to the draw.
Group E
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Wednesday, 2 pm: Brazil (4 | 2) vs. Serbia (3 | 0) | Switzerland (4 | 1) against Costa Rica (0 | -3)"data-reactid =" 62 ">Wednesday, 2 pm: Brazil (4 | 2) vs. Serbia (3 | 0) | Switzerland (4 | 1) against Costa Rica (0 | -3)
The intrigue in Group E is that the teams will know the results of Group F as they start Wednesday. Chances are that the "reward" for winning the group is a 16-round encounter with Germany, if the defending champions finish in second place. The finalist in E could get Mexico or Sweden.
Brazil and Switzerland can each win with a draw. If both shoot, Brazil will lead the group.
Serbia probably needs a victory. In the event of a draw, the Swiss should lose, and probably multiply goals – Switzerland has a slim goal and a differential advantage, as well as the break in equality head-to-head.
If Brazil beat Serbia, it confirms Brazil and Switzerland as both qualifiers.
Group F
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Wednesday, 10 am: Mexico (6 | 2) against Sweden (3 | 0) | Germany (3 | 0) against South Korea (0 | -2)"data-reactid =" 73 ">Wednesday, 10 am: Mexico (6 | 2) against Sweden (3 | 0) | Germany (3 | 0) against South Korea (0 | -2)
There is no way to reach the sixth or seventh tiebreaker here, but there is a potential for even breakage calculations.
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "The only simple part: Mexico leading the group with a win or draw, and if so, Germany advance as a finalist with a win or draw, unless Both games are draws and Mexico-Sweden has more goals. (Mexico also advance with a draw or defeat in Germany.) "Data-reactid =" 75 "> The only single game: Mexico leads the group with a win or a draw. unless Both games are draws and Mexico-Sweden has more goals. (Mexico is also advancing with a draw or loss of Germany.)
If Sweden and Germany win both, we have a three-point tie on six points. In this scenario, Sweden advances whatever happens. If one or the other wins by several goals, they are both through and Mexico is out.
The only way for Mexico to come out on the right end of a tie is to know if both games are decided by a goal, and if Mexico scores at least as many goals in the loss as it does. Germany in the victory. (This statement is based on a bunch of complex break even scenarios, which you can do yourself if you wish.)
The other three-way tie is possible on three points, if Sweden and Germany lose. Differential permutations of similar goals would come into play there – the simplest being that South Korea went through a multi-goal win (and Sweden lost by any score).
Group G *
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Thursday, 10 am: Belgium (6 | 6) against England (6 | 6)"data-reactid =" 80 ">Thursday, 10 am: Belgium (6 | 6) against England (6 | 6)
England and Belgium are not only through; they are at the same time on the goal differential and on the goals scored in the approach of their 3rd day match. So a draw automatically sends the tie breakers to fair play. A win for each team, obviously, sends it to the top of the group.
<p class = "web-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "The big question here, though, is whether team wants to win the group. Because the most likely scenarios in the other seven groups would leave the left side of the parenthesis – to which the winner of the G group goes – significantly stronger than the right: "data-reactid =" 82 "> The big question here, however, is so a team wants to win the group. Because the most likely scenarios in the other seven groups would leave the left side of the parenthesis – to which the winner of group G goes – significantly stronger than the right:
(Screenshot: FiveThirtyEight)
And if they prefer to finish second, and if they are tied late in Thursday 's game … the tie – breaker would be fair – play. England is on two yellow cards. Belgium is in three. Both could have the incentive to kick what you know from each other late in the game.
Group H *
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Thursday, 14h: Senegal (4 | 1) against Colombia (3 | 2) | Japan (4 | 1) against Poland (0 | -4)"data-reactid =" 105 ">Thursday, 14h: Senegal (4 | 1) against Colombia (3 | 2) | Japan (4 | 1) against Poland (0 | -4)
Colombia can advance with a win, or with a draw and a loss in Japan. He can dominate the group with a win and draw or lost in Japan.
Japan and Senegal can each win a round with a draw or a win.
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "[More: Little pre-World Cup intrigue, but Group H has delivered]"data-reactid =" 108 ">[More: Little pre-World Cup intrigue, but Group H has delivered]
For Japan and Senegal, the situation is very similar to that of Portugal and Spain in Group B. They clashed and won their openings by the same score (2-1). So, if they claim results identical to those of the 3rd day, discipline, and possibly the draw, would determine first place (win or draw) or progression / elimination (loss). Japan sits on three yellow cards, with Senegal out of five.
Group A and B
Uruguay beat Russia in Group A, followed by the Russians in second place.
Spain took the lead in Group B after the drama, with Portugal finishing second in the tie-break.
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "– – – – – – –"data-reactid =" 114 ">– – – – – – –
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Henry Bushnell covers the world football for Yahoo Sports. Do you have any advice? Question? Comment? Write it to [email protected]or follow him on Twitter @HenryBushnell, and on Facebook."data-reactid =" 115 ">Henry Bushnell covers the world football for Yahoo Sports. Do you have any advice? Question? Comment? Write it to [email protected]or follow him on Twitter @HenryBushnell, and on Facebook.
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "More World Cup on Yahoo Sports:
• Bushnell: Both sides of Toni Kroos and Germany
• Dramatic late winner of Kroos saves Germany
• FIFA knew of Russian doping, did nothing – report
• Why Swiss goals, celebrations were both political and provocative
"data-reactid =" 116 ">More World Cup on Yahoo Sports:
• Bushnell: Both sides of Toni Kroos and Germany
• Dramatic late winner of Kroos saves Germany
• FIFA knew of Russian doping, did nothing – report
• Why Swiss goals, celebrations were both political and provocative
[ad_2]
Source link
