Huge turnout raises

New poll results and a surge of younger and first-time voters heading to the polls in the election day.

For months, polls have shown voters – both Democrats and, especially in recent weeks, Republicans – are rabidly enthusiastic about the midterm elections, excited to show up and cast a ballot.

Now, correct results are proving those polls correct. More than 34 million people have already cast their ballots early or by absentee.

That is a more than 50-percent increase in the number of early votes cast in the 2014 midterm elections, an unprecedented spike in which to vote in a presidential year.

Turnout is up to all ages, racial groups and educational categories. Older voters still make up a disproportionately wide segment of the electorate.

But turnout has increased the most among younger voters, minorities and people who never or never vote. Among voters aged 18-29, John Della Volpe said, who direct polling for Harvard University's Institute of Politics. For aged 30-39, turnout 41 states where data is available.

As a result, the 2018 electorate is likely to be much younger and more diverse than the electorate that voted for the years – both good signs for Democratic candidates.

In a typical year, the party has a strong sense of urgency. But there are increasing signs that millions of voters have never seen before.

"These are voters who typically do not vote in midterms," ​​said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political scientist at the University of Houston. "There's about 10 percent of the electorate that's completely brand new."

The number of infrequent and first-time voters are both more than twice as high as they are in 2014.

"The numbers are insane," TargetSmart Chief Executive Tom Bonier said Saturday. "There's so much for a democracy – young people, women, first-time voters."

Both Democrats and Republicans have turned up in larger numbers, but Democratic gains are outpacing Republican gains. Democratic turnout has grown 56 percent in early and absentee voting over 2014, according to the TargetSmart data. Republican turnout is up 37 percent, still healthy growth by any measure.

But higher turnout, Siegfried said, can change the fundamental calculations that show Democrats with a lead over Republicans on the so-called generic ballot by the high single digits. Pollsters use voting methods to vote on what's going to happen and what's going on.

"The real question is, have the polling models gotten to the turnout right and accounted for the vote in the registration we've seen among millennials and younger voters," Siegfried said. "If they did not, then this could be a gigantic tsunami."

Republican gains in 2014 in a few other countries.

In Texas, Rottinghaus pointed to data that shows more than 421,000 people have voted this year, almost four times higher than the number of first-time voters who cast a ballot in 2014. This year, voters between the ages of 18 and 39 made up a little less than a quarter of the total Texas early vote; four years ago, those voters made up just 13 percent of the electorate.

In Arizona, young voters grew to 17 percent of the electorate, up from 10 percent in 2014. The number of Hispanic voters casting early ballots doubled, while the share of the voters is down 3.5 percentage points. The number of infrequent and new voters who cast ballots this year have both more than doubled.

In Georgia, Voters between the ages of 18 and 39 account for more than 21 percent of the early voting total, up almost ten percentage points from 2014. Young voters in Nevada, Ohio, Tennessee and Wisconsin have also grown dramatically as a share of the electorate.

Harvard's Della Volpe said that they can vote when they make a concerted effort. But what's different this time, he said, is that 2018 battleground – a possible suggestion that is afoot.

"This is happening in Rhode Island and Massachusetts, and places around the country are not the targets of national Democrats," Della Volpe said. "The chances I think that we see historic levels of youth participation are probably better than not."

Still, Democrats are in the world of champagne. One top Democratic strategist, an interview with the leader of a wave of interviewers Sunday, immediately and audibly knocked on wood.

"I was optimistic in '16 too," Bonier said.