Hurricane 2018 WARNING: Hottest waters from the Atlantic will feed cyclones STRONGER | Science | New



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A new study published in the journal Science warned that the average number of major hurricanes in the North Atlantic could double or triple in recent years.

Last year's hurricane season caused six major hurricanes, some of which peaked at 111 mph (178 km / h).

Hurricanes, including Harvey, Irma and Maria, have crossed the Caribbean and the East Coast of the United States, causing death and destruction on an unimaginable scale.

In recent years, the average number of major hurricanes in the Atlantic has generally been around three years per year.

Even in the past, two major storms would form each year.

However, scientists fear that five to eight major hurricanes will become the norm by 2100.

Hiro Murakami, hurricane specialist at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), warned that future hurricane seasons would be as destructive as last year.

He said: "We will see more active hurricane seasons like 2017 in the future."

As of September 28, Hurricane Florence was the only major hurricane to form in the Atlantic.

The hurricane formed on August 31 near the west coast of Africa before heading to the United States as a Category 4 storm with winds blowing at 130 mph. (215 km / h).

After studying the effects of La Niña, seasonal variations in sea surface temperatures, Dr. Murakami and his team of climatologists concluded that water conditions in the North Atlantic will facilitate spawning in the future.

In their article, hurricane experts wrote: "Using a suite of high-resolution model experiments, we show that the increase in major hurricanes in 2017 was not primarily caused by La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean, but especially in the tropical North Atlantic.

"It is further shown that, in the future, a surface warming similar to the North Atlantic, superimposed on a long-term increase in sea-surface temperature due to the increase in gas concentrations. and aerosols, will likely result in an increased number of major hurricanes. .

"The key factor controlling hurricane activity in the Atlantic seems to be the warming of the tropical Atlantic relative to the rest of the world's ocean."

Scientists have discovered that warmer temperatures lead to cyclone fires, particularly in an area from southern Florida and northern South America to the east coast of Africa.

For hurricanes to form over the Atlantic, the water temperature must reach a minimum of 26 degrees Celsius (79 degrees Fahrenheit).

A combination of natural temperature fluctuations and man-made climate change could be the cause of warming waters.

According to Dr. Murakami, the Atlantic should warm up in the coming years faster than other oceans in the world.

But the findings of the study have not convinced everyone, some scientists rejecting the supposed links between the hurricane season of 2017 and global warming.

Brian McNoldy, a hurricane expert at the University of Miami, told Phys.org: "The hurricane seasons are not getting any more active as the weather gets warmer. The variability is huge.

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