Hurricane Florence: a week later Here's what we know and here's what follows

On the morning of September 14, Hurricane Florence made landfall in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, resulting in a record storm surge and amount of torrential rain and history. A week later, the Carolinas communities are grappling with the consequences. At least 42 people have already lost their lives. Heavy and persistent rains caused water rises a few days after the storm, leading to catastrophic floods, including inland areas. Here's what we know so far and what we can expect in the weeks and months to come.

Six things we know about the impact of Hurricane Florence so far:

1) Hurricane Florence is still a dangerous disaster. It is important that residents of the Carolinas continue to pay attention to warnings from emergency management agencies and other local authorities and not to return to flooded areas until they are safe. Rivers continue to rise and new areas can be flooded. The Newport / Morehead City National Weather Service warned that the Neuse will probably not be in peak until tonight at the earliest. Water contamination is a real health, so please follow the CDC Board and consider local water advisories if you live in one of the affected areas.Source: NWSWPC

2) The forecast for Hurricane Florence has been remarkably accurate and have been very helpful in informing emergency preparedness and evacuation efforts. The National Hurricane Center had been predicting for days that the landing would likely be along the coast of North Carolina and possibly the southern part of the coast. The forecast also indicated that tidal waves would be record high and Beaufort and Wilmington tide gauges would record their highest ever.

More importantly, it was clear that one of Florence's greatest dangers was to cause heavy rains and dropping out of the area for days, greatly increasing the risk of flooding, especially inland. Record rains were recorded in many places, including Elizabethtown, North Carolina, where 35.93 inches of rain was observed and Marion, South Carolina, saw 34 inches. The rivers just overflow, including Kinston, Lumberton, Fayetteville and Lumberton. Several rivers, including the Cape Fear, Pee Dee and Trent rivers, broke water records. (Look at this drama and serious USGS visualization of the Flood as Florence crossed North Carolina.)

Soldiers of the 252nd Armored Regiment and 230th Brigade Battalion support passengers, children and their pets on route 17 between Wilmington and Bolivia, North Carolina, September 18, 2018. (Photo by Sgt Odaliska Almonte

3) Despite clear warnings about flood risks in the land, many people were still caught off guard or did not have the resources to evacuateand, in some cases, contributed to loss of life. Too many people thought that the worst of the storm had passed the day after they fell – when this was the beginning of the floods in many inland areas. The drivers ventured on roads that appeared dry but were quickly overwhelmed by flash floods. The evacuation is expensive and not everyone can afford it. Unfortunately, the data also show that too few homeowners on the way to Florence – especially in inland areas – were insured against floods, which could prevent them from coping financially by trying to rebuild their lives.

4) Hurricane Florence is a very expensive storm that should rank among the ten most expensive in the United States. Moody's initial estimates of property damage costs in Florence range from $ 17 billion to $ 22 billion, but may increase. AIR Worldwide's initial estimate of wind and storm surge losses, excluding heavy rainfall, is between $ 1.6 billion and $ 4.7 billion. These costs do not include damage to infrastructure, including major highways (see this superb drone sequence of I-40 turned into a rivereg) or dams; or payments from the National Flood Insurance Program.

In Robeson County, sections of the I-95 Highway to the Lumber River remain under water as a result of Hurricane Florence. Credit: NC DOT

5) The first fears about the risk of leaking coal ash waste and pork lagoons that flood and contaminate rivers have become realities. Early reports show that some of Duke Energy's coal ash ponds near the H. F. Lee coal plant have been broken, potentially contaminating the Neuse near Goldsboro. A coal ash pond at the Sutton Generating Station near Wilmington has also been flooded, potentially contaminating Lake Sutton, a public lake. At the same time, data from the NC's Environmental Quality Department show that more than a hundred pork lagoons are already dumping waste into watercourses or are in danger of doing so. . The Waterkeeper Alliance tracks these spills of ash and coal ash.

6) Low-income communities, communities of color and rural communities have been particularly affected by the floods in Florence.. The news reports detail the impact of Florence on social housing; livelihoods of hourly wage earners; and the rural poor. Many communities affected by Hurricane Matthew two years ago found themselves in the midst of devastating floods. In a comment earlier this week, North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper said, "One thing this storm is focusing on is affordable housing, even without storms …" to address this effort. reconstruction with a focus on affordable housing. State families will count on this promise.

For recovery and reconstruction

Prior to the passing of Hurricane Florence, President Trump issued claims for North Carolina and South Carolina and a declaration of urgency for Virginia. This allowed federal disaster assistance, including coordination from FEMA, to help supplement emergency response and recovery efforts by states, localities and communities. and tribes.

FEMA teams are on the ground in the affected states and a list of resources is available here. The National Guard, the US Coast Guard, the US Army, FEMA teams, NC Emergency Management staff, non-profit organizations and thousands of volunteers work to help evacuate and protect the people. Individual assistance programs for families and public assistance for state, local and tribal entities are available.

A Clearwater MH-60 Jayhawk Air Force Base staff member from the Coast Guard Air Base is looking for survivors of Hurricane Florence in Elizabeth City, North Carolina, on September 18, 2018. Photo: Auxiliarist Trey Clifton.

In the coming weeks, the Congress will also have to intervene in the event of a disaster, as was the case during major disasters. It will be essential for this aid to be channeled quickly to the most affected communities with the least resources to deal with it. A major concern is that the public housing stock in many places has been hit hard. Affordable housing is already scarce and this hurricane will make it even harder to find safe housing for families. Unfortunately, in past storms, the lack of affordable housing has forced some to leave communities and move away; or face difficulties because they have to move further away from jobs and schools. CDBG-DR resources from the Department of Housing and Urban Development are essential for rebuilding resilient and affordable housing where people need it most. Congress must allocate sufficient funds to this program.

FEMA funding is also vital to community rebuilding efforts. It is important to ensure that reconstruction is done in a way that helps protect homeowners and communities from future storms. It is also a good time to fund voluntary home buyback programs, so homeowners who live in high-risk flooding areas can choose this option and move to safer areas. The recovery will take a long time and we can not lose sight of this reality even after the storm has collapsed. Yesterday marked the year since Hurricane Maria passed through Puerto Rico – and it is clear that much remains to be done to help communities recover. Some families in North Carolina were still waiting for federal help to recover from Hurricane Matthew when Florence hit.

A resilient future must take into account climate change and fairness considerations

It is undeniable that climate change contributes to the risk of more intense hurricanes and worsening floods. The rise in sea level and the increase in heavy rains exacerbate the risks of catastrophic flooding. The human and economic toll of these extreme events is high. Even in the absence of storms, rising sea levels exacerbate tidal floods and pose a serious risk to coastal communities.

Meanwhile, as we have seen many times with recent hurricanes – Katrina, Harvey, Maria, Irma and now Florence – low-income communities and communities of color are the main victims of disasters.

As communities recover and rebuild after these terrible disasters, we need to keep these facts in mind and ensure that we build a more climate resilient future for all.

If you wish to support local recovery efforts for Hurricane Florence, please consider these resources brought together by the front line communities in the field: A Just Recovery Florence Thank you.

Posted in: Global warming
Tags: extreme events, extreme precipitation, hurricane Florence, sea level rise

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