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Just like that, the 2018 hurricane season is in full swing. And while the remains of Gordon continues to weaken in the lower Mississippi Valley, the focus is on a new threat: Hurricane Florence. This storm has a small chance to become a problem for the East Coast next week.
On Wednesday morning, Florence became the first major hurricane, ranked in category 3 or higher, to develop during the current Atlantic season. Its peak winds climbed to 125 mph.
At more than 1,200 miles from the nearest land mass, Florence is not an immediate concern – for now. But the powerful storm, with a wall of thunderstorms tight surrounding his pinhole eye, do not look. The intensity of Florence is expected to fluctuate over the next few days, perhaps weakening modestly to become a Category 2 storm.
Meanwhile, Florence will continue to bend to the northwest, perhaps getting dangerously close to Bermuda by the end of the weekend. After that, the exact trajectory and strength of the storm become real assets in the face of growing uncertainties.
Predicting the position of a storm more than a few days into the future is like playing a game of Plinko or pachinko. At first, it is quite easy to analytically determine where your token or ball will go. The "cone" of the possible results is quite narrow. But over time, this range of possibilities extends to more real estate. The cone develops. The same is true here.
The National Hurricane Center's average error from 2010 to 2017 in the predicted storm position is 40 to 50 miles, but it rises to about 220 miles five days later and much later. So, while awareness and preparation are good, focusing on a specific outcome so early has very bad chances.
It is possible that Florence becomes a big problem in a little over a week. A group of model simulations describing the possible footsteps began to show the possibility of impacts on the east coast, particularly near the southeastern and central Atlantic coasts.
Group of simulations of American (blue) and European (red) computer models of Wednesday night. Each strand of color represents a different model simulation with slight changes in the initial conditions. Note that the strands are clustered where the forecast trajectory is the safest, but they diverge when the course of the storm is less certain. The bold red line represents the average of all simulations of European models, while blue represents the average of all simulations of US models. (StormVistaWxModels.com)
It is important to keep in mind, however, that Florence is moving far enough offshore so that the United States only sees the sun and the waves. This huge variety of end results is the nature of the forecast of a week or more in the future. If the United States had to see something, it would be in about eight days.
A storm in Florence's current position has never hit the United States of history. However, prevailing weather conditions could be an exception. A giant ridge of high pressure over the North Atlantic has a chance to direct the storm to the American continent unless a low-pressure trough is able to capture the storm late this weekend and make it more marine.
Eric Webb, a student in meteorology, underlined on Twitter that the 1933 Chesapeake-Potomac Hurricane took an unusual course on Bermuda up to the Mid-Atlantic coast. This storm pushed a massive tidal wave from 11 to 12 feet up to the Potomac River, flooding parts of Washington. While Florence is somewhat north of this 1933 storm, the specter of such a trajectory must be carefully monitored.
It's still too early to worry about a storm that hits the ground, but it's never too early to get ready. Have trees that could fall on your house during a windstorm? Cut them now. Dlutter drains and gutters. Make sure you have an emergency kit with supplies for at least three days. There are fundamental things that anyone in the Atlantic Basin should already do during the hurricane season. This is a great opportunity to do them.
All in all, we are on track to know where we should be – the average date of the first major Atlantic hurricane is September 4th. And although the season is not as stormy as 2017, it takes one to change your life.
Jason Samenow of Capital Weather Gang contributed to this article.
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