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Modest decrease in strength but expanding in size, Hurricane Florence Category 3 is within 48 hours of landing on the southeast coast with catastrophic impacts, destructive winds to widespread floods.
The rise in the storm, the increase in seawater over the normally arid lands of the coast, could reach up to 13 feet. Hurricane force winds will bring down trees and damage homes and businesses. Like Hurricane Harvey in 2017, Florence is expected to slow significantly when it reaches the coast, allowing the storm to dump a catastrophic amount of rain into the Carolinas.
Although the peak of the storm winds decreased Wednesday from 130 to 120 mph, the National Hurricane Center said the storm had increased in size and energy, "which will create an important wave of waves. storm".
Florence will probably be the most intense storm to hit the region for at least 25 years since Hugo.
"It will likely be a storm of life on parts of the Carolina coast," the Wilmington, North Carolina, National Weather Service said Tuesday, and considering the impacts of hurricanes Diana, Hugo and Fran, Bonnie , Floyd and Matthew.
According to forecasts, the center of Florence must touch the shoreline Friday of the Carolinas in category 3.
As the coast approaches, the advance of the storm will slow down, but the winds and rain will be unforgiving.
Since Tuesday, the forecast has shifted the storm track south and southwest after reaching the coast, which could increase the severity of the storm on the coast of South Carolina through Myrtle Beach and Charleston and even in parts of Georgia.
Due to the unusual directional patterns in the atmosphere, Florence can crawl south along the southeast coast, the opposite thunderstorms usually move.
"There is virtually no precedent for a hurricane moving southwest for a while along the Carolina coast" tweeted Bob Henson, meteorologist at Weather Underground. "Such an unorthodox track could produce very unexpected results."
The Hurricane Center warns of a triple threat in the Carolinas:
- A deadly storm surge on the coast
- "Freshwater Flood threatening the life of a prolonged and unusually heavy rain event" from coast to interior sections
- "The destructive winds of the hurricane force" on the coast and some distance inland
Like Hurricane Harvey, who hit Texas in 2017, Florence could linger on the southeast for several days after touching down, discharging 15 to 25 inches of rain and isolated amounts of up to 40 inches. Floods from heavy rains are the second leading cause of death in tropical storms and hurricanes that affect the land.
Rain could fall enough to break North Carolina record for tropical storm – 24 inches – located near Wilmington during Hurricane Floyd in 1999said Greg Carbin, head of forecasting operations at the National Weather Forecast Center.
More than 1.5 million people have been ordered to evacuate coastal areas before the storm due to destructive winds and a storm surge that could place normally dry land under at least 10 feet of water.
[What to put in your emergency supply kit]
"All of South Carolina's interests in the central Atlantic coastal region should ensure that their hurricane plan is in place and follow the advice given by local authorities," said the Hurricane. Center.
What do you want to know
The last | Storm Haze | Timing of storms | Path projections | The place of Florence in history
The last
New
"North Carolina, my message is clear," said a sinister governor, Roy Cooper, at a briefing on Wednesday. "The disaster is at the door and is coming."
The pivot of Florence's forecast trail led the governor of Georgia to declare a state of emergency on Wednesday afternoon for the 159 counties, where 10.5 million people live.
And this led to mixed signals from officials in South Carolina, whose governor had canceled the mandatory evacuation of several coastal counties on Tuesday. On Wednesday, officials from Beaufort County, who host Hilton Head Island, held a press conference and urged people to leave voluntarily.
Federal officials warned that millions of people in Florence's sights could be deprived of electricity for weeks, if fierce winds hit power lines and massive rains flood equipment. There are 16 nuclear reactors in the region, and the crews of the closest landing station are planning to close the station at Brunswick.
[Moving chickens, harvesting tobacco, managing hog manure: N.C. farmers prepare for Florence]
The monstrous storm has forced the closure of hundreds of schools throughout the region. Because Florence's precipitation is expected to hit remote areas of the coast, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Duke, and North Carolina have canceled classes until the end of the week. Boeing and Volvo shut down their Charleston factories, idling thousands of people building 787s and sedans.
President Trump has approved emergency disaster statements for the Carolinas and Virginia, freeing up funds for relief and recovery. "We are as ready as ever," he said after a briefing with Federal Director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, William "Brock", and the Secretary of Security Kirstjen Nielsen.
[‘Absolutely, totally prepared’: Trump says the government is ready as Florence approaches]
He also canceled campaign rallies in Cape Girardeau, Missouri, and Mississippi.
"Florence could be the most dangerous storm in the history of the Carolinas," said Long, a native of North Carolina, on Twitter.
[Trump administration diverted nearly $10 million from FEMA to ICE detention program, according to DHS document]
weather
By 5 pm Wednesday, the strongest winds in Florence were 120 km / h, and it was blowing northwest at 16 mph, about 385 miles southeast of Wilmington.
The Hurricane Center anticipates intensity fluctuations the next day, but Florence is expected to approach the coast as a Category 3 storm.
In the northeastern part of the storm, the Hurricane Center reported wave height up to 83 feet Wednesday morning.
Although the strongest winds in Florence fell slightly, the storm's wind field continued to rise Wednesday, the Hurricane Center said. Hurricane force winds extend over 70 miles from the center, while tropical storm force winds extend over 195 miles. The cloud field of the storm is about the size of four Ohios.
Hurricane warnings are in effect for the South Santee River in South Carolina bound for Duck, NC and Albemarle and Pamlico. This includes Wilmington, Nc. Hurricane watches extend north of the North Carolina-Virginia border and south of the South Santee River, including the Charleston area. A tropical storm warning covers the northern region of Duck, NC, at the North Carolina-Virginia border.
More than 10 million people are under surveillance and warnings, Associated Press reported.
(National Meteorological Service)
Timing of storms
In coastal areas of the southeastern and central Atlantic littoral, high tides and high water levels are expected to arrive on Wednesday morning and rainfall could begin late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The rain should then spread to the interior of the land by Friday and continue for several days when the storm slows down or stagnates.
Tropical storm winds could reach the coast as early as Thursday morning, by which time all outdoor preparations should be completed.
The extremely strong winds of a hurricane force could hit the coast Thursday night and Friday. Hurricane winds with tropical storms may well extend inland, depending on the course of the storm.
Storm Hazards
Storm wave
Like a bulldozer, the winds of the storm and the forward motion will push an enormous amount of water on land when it reaches the coast. The storm surge, or the rise of water above the normally dry coast, could reach more than one floor, or 13 feet, if the maximum thrust coincides with high tide.
Jeff Masters, the meteorologist who writes the Weather Underground category 6 blog, reported that a maximum thrust of 15 to 20 feet is possible, which would compete with hurricane heights Hugo (1989) and Hazelnut (1954).
The largest increase is expected to occur just north of the island, where the Hurricane Center is heading south-east of North Carolina.
The push will cause "large areas of deep flooding. . . reinforced by the beat waves, "said the Meteorological Service. He warned of probable "structural damage to buildings. . . with several potentially washable locations, "" flooded or faded coastal roads "and" significant damage to marinas ".
Storm surge warnings have been issued from the South Santee River in South Carolina to Duck, NC. The Charleston area is under surveillance by a storm surge.
The Hurricane Center projects the following surge heights over the normally dry land, if the maximum thrust coincides with high tide:
- Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo and Bay rivers: 9 to 13 feet
- North Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear: 6 to 9 feet
- Cape Lookout in Ocracoke Inlet: 6 to 9 feet
- South Santee River in North Myrtle Beach: 4 to 6 feet
- Ocracoke Inlet in Salvo, N .: 4 to 6 feet
- Salvo to North Carolina / Virginia Border: 2 to 4 feet
- Edisto Beach to South Santee River: 2 to 4 feet
Rain
The models agree that an area of high pressure north of the storm will cause it to slow down or stall once it reaches the coast or shortly thereafter. There is a relatively strong agreement that excessive amounts of rain will fall in southeastern North Carolina.
"Flood waters can enter many structures and some can become uninhabitable or washed away," warned the weather service.
The area where the heaviest rains form exactly when the storm winds inland is very uncertain, but the models suggest that it could concentrate in southern North Carolina and northern North Carolina. South during the weekend.
[[[[Hurricane Florence might look a lot like Harvey. Here's why.]
It is possible that the storm will reverse early next week and return north to West Virginia, Virginia and Pennsylvania, although it is considerably weakened. This region will be particularly vulnerable to floods due to much higher than normal rainfall since May. In addition, the soil is probably saturated, the trees would be vulnerable in strong winds.
[What will Hurricane Florence mean for the Washington area?]
(National Meteorological Service)
The Hurricane Center predicts that these amounts of rain:
- North Carolina Coast: 20 to 30 inches, 40 inches insulated.
- South Carolina, West and North Carolina: 5 to 10 inches, insulated 20 inches.
- Elsewhere in the Appalachian and central Atlantic states: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 12 inches. Much of this rain would fall early next week, rather than over the weekend.
Wind
The strongest winds will occur where and when the storm will reach a ring around the calm eye of the storm known as the wall of the eye. If the storm surfaces as Category 4, these winds will be destructive, sustained at speeds up to 130 km / h with higher gusts.
The area where these intense winds occur will be narrow, but the effects will likely be devastating, as will a strong tornado. The Hurricane Center describes the types of damage associated with Category 4 winds:
Well-constructed frame houses can suffer serious damage with the loss of most of the roof structure and / or some exterior walls. Most trees will be broken or uprooted and utility poles will be cut down. Fallen trees and utility poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks or even months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
Outside this zone of destructive winds, destructive winds are still likely, even at some distance from the interior of the coasts, which could lead to minor structural damage, fallen trees and widespread blackouts.
A model of power failure at the University of Michigan predicts that 3.6 million customers will be deprived of electricity because of the storm, mainly in the eastern half of North Carolina.
If the storm is unleashed in the east of the Carolinas as it reaches the coast, these wind impacts will be magnified.
The forecasts of the national meteorological service calls for 62 hours in a row of gusts of tropical storms and 24 hours of hurricane gusts in Wilmington.
The last projections of trajectory
When the storm affects the coast, the strongest winds and the greatest rise in coastal waters occur, but strong winds and extreme precipitation could occur at great distances from the landing site. Keeping this in mind, here is the probability of landing at different locations depending on our evaluation of the model data:
- 80 percent in the Carolinas
- 10% off
- 10% between North Florida and Georgia
Even in the unlikely event that the center of the storm remains just offshore, it is almost certain that it will be close enough to cause dangerous winds and floods in the coastal areas. Areas further north and west may be somewhat spared in this scenario.
Although it is highly likely that the Carolinas Hurricane will be hit hard by the storm from Thursday to Friday, the direction of the storm becomes much less certain over the weekend and next week.
"The models indicate that steering currents will collapse on Friday as Florence approaches the southeastern coast of the United States," the Hurricane Center wrote. "The weakness of the steering currents is expected to continue throughout the weekend, making forecast forecasts for days 3 to 5 quite uncertain."
Since the beginning of the week, the trajectory of the storm after the landing has shifted further south and west, possibly pushing it onto the coast of South Carolina or into the south. its interior.
A group of US (blue) and European (red) computer model simulations starting on Wednesday. Each strand of color represents a different model simulation with slight changes in the initial conditions. Note that the strands are clustered where the forecast trajectory is the safest, but they diverge when the course of the storm is less certain. The bold red line represents the average of all European model simulations, while blue represents the average of all US model simulations. The finer lines (red and blue) are the main or operational simulations of each model. (StormVistaWxModels.com)
The place of Florence in history
If Florence enters Category 4 in North Carolina, it would be the strongest storm to land in this northern part of the country.
If a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) affects the southeastern coast of Florida, the rarity of this event is relevant. Since 1851, only 10 major hurricanes have done so and the most recent, Fran, in 1996, 22 years ago. In 1989, Hugo was the precedent and was a category 4 on the ground. No hurricane landed as Category 5 in this region.
Many people in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic have probably not experienced a storm of potential magnitude from Florence.
Read more
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"Nothing to play with:" The alarm from the head of FEMA on Hurricane Florence
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Category 6? Climate change can lead to a rapid intensification of hurricanes.
Joel Achenbach and Ann Gerhart of the Washington Post and Brian McNoldy of Capital Weather Gang contributed to this report.
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