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Hurricane Florence could trigger "catastrophic floods" in the Carolinas, and excessive rains could easily seep into Virginia. But, based on the best predictions of available computer models, the extreme precipitation of the storm will likely remain south of Washington.
However, even if the effects of the storm on the area can be reduced, they may not be totally rejected. It is still possible that the region will experience rain and disturbing winds from the storm. This risk increases as you head toward central Virginia to Charlottesville and Richmond, especially to the south and southwest of Virginia.
In addition, although the center of the storm remains well south of the Washington area, seawater may continue to flow up the Potomac River and Chesapeake Bay to cause flooding along its shoreline.
Although simulations on computer models have moved the effects of the storm south since Monday, they could again head north, putting our region at greater risk. On the other hand, if the storm track moves further south, the area could be largely unaffected by any significant effect.
It should be noted that our region remains very vulnerable to rainfall. Our soils are saturated and our rivers, streams and streams are full or overflowing already. If we get several inches of rain or more, floods will be inevitable. Washington has received about 46 inches of rain this year, which ranks it fourth since the beginning of the year since the beginning of the year.
Because our soils have been essentially turned into porridge, trees are no longer well anchored in the soil. If strong winds materialize, they could fall in large numbers.
Storm Scenarios
We reduced the number of scenarios for the region from four to three compared to Monday's update. The most likely scenario would result in modest impacts in the immediate area.
Scenario 1: Storms remain well south of Washington, with minimal or very minor effects (50% probability)
The storm would land between North Carolina and Southeast Carolina. It could be deviated to the west or even to the south.
Much of the Washington area could only suffer from some cool downpours on Friday, possibly extending into the weekend. These would become more numerous and heavier from Fredericksburg and south.
The European version and the new version of the American model (FV3) support this type of scenario.
Rain potential: Less than an inch.
Scenario 2: The storm remains south of Washington, with rains and gusts of wind – particularly south (40% chance)
In this scenario, the storm is landed in southeastern North Carolina and winds inland, making little way to the north. We might be swept by occasional showers on Friday, which could produce gusty winds, but total precipitation is unlikely to be enough to cause major flooding problems.
The American model shows that Florence is moving to south-central North Carolina. Showers and strong winds reach north-central Virginia in this scenario and perhaps a little further north. (WeatherBell.com)
The Fredericksburg and southern and southwestern regions would see more rain and wind. Floods and power outages may become more prevalent south of Charlottesville and Richmond.
Minor coastal flooding would be possible along the banks of the Potomac and Chesapeake Bay.
The US weather model (GFS) supports this scenario.
Rainfall potential: One to three inches, the heaviest in the south.
Scenario 3: The storm is approaching the Washington area with heavy rain and high winds, especially in the south (10 percent chance)
In this scenario, the storm crosses eastern North Carolina and Virginia, where it stalls. Heavy rains and strong winds could affect the area from Friday, causing floods and power outages. The strongest winds – perhaps reaching the strength of tropical storms – and the heaviest rains would likely occur on Saturday, and rains could persist early next week as winds gradually decrease.
Rain projections from the National Meteorological Service during the next week. The latest modeling data suggest that these amounts may be too high in central and northern Virginia unless the storm moves north.
The most serious effects would occur in our southern regions. Virginia Tidewater and Richmond would be particularly affected, but the rains would also be intensified on higher ground in central and western Virginia.
This runway would result in a significant storm surge in Potomac Bay and Chesapeake Bay, resulting in coastal flooding.
The Canadian model supports this type of scenario.
Rainfall potential: Three to six inches or more, the heaviest in the south.
Wednesday we"We will update these scenarios and hope to be able to further reduce them and with more specificity. At this moment, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the storm"Of course, it gets closer to the coast and ventures inland with very low steering currents.
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