Hurricane Florence should trigger winds and rains in the Carolinas

Large and dangerous, Category 2 hurricane Florence is about a day off the coast of the Carolinas, where conditions will begin to deteriorate rapidly on Thursday. It marks the beginning of a prolonged onslaught of wind and water that, in the end, is likely to cause devastating damage and floods to millions of people in the south-east of the country.

On Thursday along the coast Thursday, the winds will accelerate, the rain will intensify and the restless and agitated ocean will spring to the ground.

A landing is expected Friday in southeastern North Carolina, which could suffer the consequences of the storm. The rise in the storm, the increase in seawater over the normally dry lands of the coast, could rise sharply. On top of that, a disastrous amount of rain, 20 or maybe even 40 inches will fall.

Floods caused by storm surge and precipitation could be "catastrophic," warned the National Hurricane Center.

This same area will be hit by gusty winds up to a hurricane force for almost a day, while tropical storm conditions could last twice as long. These unforgiving winds will damage homes and buildings, demolish trees and eliminate energy.

Gradually, from Friday to weekend, the massive storm – containing a zone of 400-mile-wide tropical force winds – will drift inland, engulfing much of South Carolina and southern California. North Carolina. Rainfall amounts could reach 6 to 12 inches, causing flooding. Part of the wind and rain from the storm could even seep into eastern Georgia.

Rain could fall enough to break North Carolina record for tropical storm – 24 inches – located near Wilmington during Hurricane Floyd in 1999said Greg Carbin, head of forecasting operations at the National Weather Forecast Center.

Floods from heavy rains are the second leading cause of death in tropical storms and hurricanes that affect the land.

The threat of rain can not stop in the Carolinas. Early next week, a weakened but soggy Florence could drop rain on Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, Washington and Pennsylvania already saturated. These areas are vulnerable to floods and trees that fell after heavy rains this summer.

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The last | Storm Haze | Path projections

The last

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"North Carolina, my message is clear," said a sinister governor, Roy Cooper, at a briefing on Wednesday. "The disaster is at the door and is coming."

The pivot of Florence's forecast trail led the governor of Georgia to declare a state of emergency on Wednesday afternoon for the 159 counties, where 10.5 million people live.

Federal officials warned that millions of people in Florence's sights could be deprived of electricity for weeks, if fierce winds hit power lines and massive rains flood equipment. There are 16 nuclear reactors in the region, and the crews of the closest landing station are planning to close the station at Brunswick.

[Moving chickens, harvesting tobacco, managing hog manure: N.C. farmers prepare for Florence]

The monstrous storm has forced the closure of hundreds of schools throughout the region.

President Trump has approved emergency disaster statements for the Carolinas and Virginia, freeing up funds for relief and recovery. "We are as ready as ever," he said after a briefing with Federal Director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, William "Brock", and the Secretary of Security Kirstjen Nielsen.

[‘Absolutely, totally prepared’: Trump says the government is ready as Florence approaches]

"Florence could be the most dangerous storm in the history of the Carolinas," said Long, a native of North Carolina, on Twitter.

weather

As of 11 pm Wednesday, Florence's strongest winds were 110 km / h, and it was blowing north-west at 17 mph, about 280 miles east-southeast of Wilmington .

The Hurricane Center predicts that the storm will maintain this intensity until the landing, after which the wind speed will gradually decrease.

Even though the peak of the Florence winds fell on Wednesday, the wind field of the storm has increased, the Hurricane Center said. The hurricane force winds extend for 80 miles from the center, while the storm winds of the tropical storms extend over 195 miles. The cloud field of the storm is about the size of four Ohios.

Hurricane warnings are in effect for the South Santee River in South Carolina bound for Duck, NC and Albemarle and Pamlico. This includes Wilmington, Nc. Hurricane watches extend north of the North Carolina-Virginia border and south of the South Santee River, including the Charleston area. A tropical storm warning covers the northern region of Duck, NC, at the North Carolina-Virginia border.

More than 10 million people are under surveillance and warnings, Associated Press reported.

Storm Hazards

Storm wave

Like a bulldozer, the winds of the storm and the forward motion will push an enormous amount of water on land when it reaches the coast. The storm surge, or the rise of water above the normally dry coast, could reach more than one floor, or 13 feet, if the maximum thrust coincides with high tide.

[[[[Hurricane Florence: city by city forecasts]

The largest increase is expected to occur just north of the island, where the Hurricane Center is heading south-east of North Carolina.

The push will cause "large areas of deep flooding. . . reinforced by the beat waves, "said the Meteorological Service. He warned of probable "structural damage to buildings. . . with several potentially washable locations, "" flooded or faded coastal roads "and" significant damage to marinas ".

Storm surge warnings have been issued from the South Santee River in South Carolina to Duck, NC. The Charleston area is under surveillance by a storm surge.

The Hurricane Center projects the following surge heights over the normally dry land, if the maximum thrust coincides with high tide:

• Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo and Bay rivers: 9 to 13 feet
• North Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear: 6 to 9 feet
• Cape Lookout in Ocracoke Inlet: 6 to 9 feet
• South Santee River in North Myrtle Beach: 4 to 6 feet
• Ocracoke Inlet in Salvo, N .: 4 to 6 feet
• Salvo to North Carolina / Virginia Border: 2 to 4 feet
• Edisto Beach to South Santee River: 2 to 4 feet

Rain

Models agree that excessive amounts of rain will fall in southeastern North Carolina.

"Flood waters can enter many structures and some can become uninhabitable or washed away," warned the weather service.

The area where the heaviest rains form exactly when the storm winds inland is more uncertain, but the models suggest that it could concentrate in southern North Carolina and northern North Carolina. South during the weekend.

It is likely that the storm will reverse the road early next week and return north to West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania, although it is considerably weakened.

[[[[What does Hurricane Florence mean for the Washington area?]

(National Meteorological Service)

The Hurricane Center forecasts the following amounts of rain:

• North Carolina Coast: 20 to 30 inches, 40 inches insulated.
• South Carolina, West and North Carolina: 5 to 10 inches, insulated 20 inches.
• Elsewhere in the Appalachian and central Atlantic states: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 12 inches. Much of this rain would fall early next week, rather than over the weekend.

Wind

The strongest winds will occur where and when the storm will reach a ring around the calm eye of the storm known as the wall of the eye. If the storm surfaces as Category 2, these winds will be damaging, extending to about 100 mph with higher gusts.

The area where these intense winds occur will be narrow and last only a few hours, but the effects will likely be severe, similar to a tornado. The Hurricane Center describes the types of damage associated with Category 2 winds:

Well-constructed frame houses could suffer significant roof and siding damage. Many shallow trees will be torn or uprooted and will block many roads. An almost total loss of power is expected with failures that can last from a few days to several weeks.

Outside this zone of destructive winds, destructive winds are still likely, even at some distance from the interior of the coasts, which could lead to minor structural damage, fallen trees and widespread blackouts.

A power failure model at the University of Michigan predicts that 3.2 million customers will be deprived of electricity due to the storm, mainly in the eastern half of North Carolina.

As the storm slows down, it moves over the eastern Carolinas, these wind impacts will be magnified.

The last projections of trajectory

Although it is highly likely that the Eastern storm will occur Thursday to Friday, the direction of the storm will become much less safe over the weekend and next week.

The models agree that the storm is expected to hit the land between the border between North Carolina and South Carolina and the outer banks of North Carolina, and then cross South Carolina. But then they diverge gradually. While all the simulations show that the storm is turning north Sunday or Monday, the place where this happens is a big map.

A group of US (blue) and European (red) computer model simulations starting on Wednesday. Each strand of color represents a different model simulation with slight changes in the initial conditions. Note that the strands are clustered where the forecast trajectory is the safest, but they diverge when the course of the storm is less certain. The bold red line represents the average of all European model simulations, while blue represents the average of all US model simulations. The finer lines (red and blue) are the main or operational simulations of each model. (StormVistaWxModels.com)

The storm could head north through the Ohio Valley, the Appalachians or even closer to the Interstate 95 corridor. The specifics of the runway early next week will have implications for areas where Most abundant rains occur north of the Carolinas.

[[[[Hurricane Florence will have little effect on the area covered by direct current during the weekend. Chance of rain next week.]

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Joel Achenbach and Ann Gerhart of the Washington Post contributed to this report.