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• Once onshore, Florence's torrential rains can cause "catastrophic floods and major floods" over much of the Caroline and mid-Atlantic states, the hurricane center said.
A powerful storm on a rare track
It is unusual for storms as strong as Florence to head straight for the North Carolina coast. Hazel was the last Category 4 hurricane to do so in 1954. This storm was famous for its destructive nature. Most storms that reach the United States coast tend to move further south, hitting Florida or entering the Gulf of Mexico.
"This could be an unprecedented disaster for North Carolina," said Brian McNoldy, senior research associate at the University of Miami, in a post on Tuesday on his hurricane blog.
Storms that follow a trajectory similar to that of Florence tend to turn north before reaching the coast. This year, however, an atmospheric phenomenon known as high blockage derived from jet-stream "like a whirlpool in the river that separates from the main stream" has prevented Florence from doing this trick, said Jennifer Francis, research professor . at Rutgers University.
Recent research suggests that jet stream disturbances – an apparent result of climate change – have weakened currents that tend to displace weather systems, Dr. Francis added. As a result, she said, "we see this tendency to get stuck mainly in the summer," whether it's drought in the West or heavy summer rains in the Midwest this year.
Graphic
Where is Hurricane Florence? Follow the path of the storm
The Category 4 storm has continued to North Carolina and South Carolina, where it is expected to land on Thursday night.
Open chart
The phenomenon, she said, "tends to make the orientation currents of a tropical storm in Texas, like Harvey, disappear, or a tropical storm heading for the Carolinas, like Florence."
A more populated and vulnerable coastline
According to Michael Cramer, the city's director at Carolina Beach, north of Wilmington, an island community south of Wilmington, about 75 percent of the population had left.
Mr. Cramer was concerned about projections that Florence would be comparable to Hurricane Hazel, who virtually wiped out his city's 6,200 year-round residents in 1954. destroyed 362 buildings.
The coastline on which Florence is going to engage this week is even more vulnerable. Americans have flocked to the shores of the nation and have built a lot in recent decades, ensuring that any modern storm will damage many more properties than those of previous generations.
The trend has also put many people in direct danger. In 2010, 123 million people, or 39% of Americans, lived in counties directly on the coast. This represents a 40% increase since 1970. The 2020 census should show that this figure has increased by 10 million people.
[[[[Are you on the way to Hurricane Florence? We want your news.]
This growth took place as climate change made the coasts more vulnerable. Gabriel Vecchi, a climatologist at Princeton University, noted that rising sea levels increase the ability to destroy storm surges and that a warming atmosphere contains more moisture, resulting in more rain. .
"Right now, I will focus on keeping everyone safe and away from Florence," said Dr. Vecchi. "But afterwards, there are other questions to ask."
Forecasters deplore dangerous misconceptions
Forecasters and public officials will try almost anything for people to flee the coast before a hurricane. Last year, as Hurricane Harvey headed for the Gulf Coast, the Mayor of Rockport, Texas, said those who insisted on staying should "mark their arms with a Sharpie pen".
Fearing that Hurricane Florence may also be deadly, the governors of the Carolinas and Virginia have ordered evacuations this week in many coastal counties.
The storm "will affect all of you," North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper said on Tuesday as he ordered the state's first evacuation of the state's barrier islands. "The waves and wind this storm can bring do not look like anything you've ever seen."
But experts know that not all residents will ignore warnings, and some say the reason is that forecasts and storm risks are not sufficiently communicated to the public. Here are some common misconceptions and recommendations to improve the forecasts in order to fix them.
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