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Based on the questions we've seen on social media and online discussions, there's a lot of confusion about what Hurricane Florence will mean for the DC region over the weekend. That does not mean much.
We do not expect heavy rains, more than showers, or strong winds until Sunday, as the storm is spreading so far south of us. But next week, the storm could return to the north and cause unreliable rains between Monday and Wednesday.
When the storm is likely to enter southeastern North Carolina on Friday, there will likely be showers and a bit of wind. The heaviest and heaviest rains are likely to fall in our southernmost regions (to Fredericksburg), but even here we do not think they will be sufficient to cause severe flooding or disturbance.
Forecast of precipitation until Saturday from the national meteorological service. We think that can be a little exaggerated. (PivotalWeather.com)
For interests along Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac, south and east winds could cause minor coastal flooding on Friday in the weekend, but we do not expect a strong increase (as in Hurricane Isabel, for example).
The Virginia Tidewater is the closest region to the Washington area and could experience heavy rains, strong winds and a storm surge in coastal areas, mainly on Friday, though this area lacks vigilance.
As the storm moves south through South Carolina during the weekend, we could see little or no rain in the Washington area. Unless forecasts change significantly, there is no need to cancel plans, events or outdoor trips in the Washington area this weekend due to Hurricane Florence. Although we can not totally exclude scattered showers, contrary to what we have seen in recent days, the weather may be rather benign.
The chance of rain from the remains of Florence increase next week
The wild is what happens with the storm early next week. It is planned to take an unusual path, moving south along the coast of South Carolina, then to the interior of the land near the border with Georgia, then returning to the north.
Between Monday and Wednesday next week, there may be rain from the old hurricane Florence. As the region is saturated with water, having experienced the fourth wettest year ever recorded (nearly 46 inches in Washington), it will not rain much to cause flooding. Even then, parts of the Potomac River downstream of Shepherdstown flood all recent rains.
Since Florence will have spent several days on the land as it approaches our region, we do not expect widespread strong winds, although some locally strong gusts can not be ruled out. As soils are saturated, trees will be more vulnerable to wind than normal.
There are different scenarios for the remnants of the storm in our area, depending on where they are heading north.
Scenario 1: A period of heavy rain and storms as the remains of Florence pass near or above our region (40% chance)
The European model presents this scenario. He brings the ancient Florence to the southern Appalachians in northern Virginia. Between Monday evening and Tuesday, pouring rain occurred, which would probably have caused floods. These remains of storm will move, which should prevent a serious generalized flood.
A European model shows a rainstorm and storms in the Washington area Tuesday night. (StormVistaWxModels.com)
The slight risk of brief tornadoes in some of the passing rainbands should be monitored, which is common in the remaining tropical systems.
Rainfall potential: 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts
Scenario 2: Showers and scattered storms as the remains of Florence pass well to the west of the region (40 percent chance)
The American model presents this scenario. He brings the remnants of the storm into eastern Tennessee, Ohio and western Pennsylvania, and possibly into the west of New England. It goes far enough to the west of our region, that we stay outside the area of heavy rains.
However, some of its moisture would still be dragged into a front towards the area, which would likely trigger showers and storms, which could be locally heavy. As in Scenario 1, the low risk of a tornado in all storms that resulted in an increased spin in the atmosphere should be monitored.
An American model shows the remains of Hurricane Florence crossing western Pennsylvania Monday night until Tuesday morning. (StormVistaWxModels.com)
Rainfall Potential: Less than one inch with locally higher amounts. Up to several centimeters in the mountains.
Scenario 3: Something else. . . (20 percent)
The path of Florence in three to five days is very uncertain, so it is not difficult to consider circumstances different from those we have described. The track of the storm could change (again), just like its timing. It is therefore preferable to leave room for other possibilities.
Prediction tracks for Hurricane Florence and its remnants of the latest cycles of European (red) and American (blue) modeling systems. (StormVistaWxModels.com)
We will re-evaluate these scenarios on Thursday.
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