Hurricane forecaster tracking system in the Caribbean



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Hurricane forecasters Wednesday morning (October 3) were following a disturbance in the Caribbean. There is a 30% chance that it will grow in at least one tropical depression.

The low-pressure system is not an immediate threat to New Orleans, but forecasters at the National Meteorological Center's Slidell office said it was a "good idea to stay alert."

On Wednesday, at 7 am, the National Hurricane Center announced that the system was above the center and southwest of the Caribbean and drifted to the northwest. The low-pressure system had showers and thunderstorms disorganized, and forecasters have stated that a slow development is possible during the weekend.

The system has about 0% chance of developing a tropical depression within 48 hours and 30% probability (low) of developing within five days. The categories of cyclones, whose strength is increasing, are the tropical depression, the tropical storm and the hurricane.

The National Hurricane Center's five-day forecast map on Wednesday morning indicates areas where a tropical depression could develop. This area, shaded in yellow, is not a forecast trail. (Image via NOAA)

The National Hurricane Center's five-day forecast map on Wednesday morning shows a vast area in the Caribbean, from the Yucatan Peninsula to Jamaica, where a tropical depression could form. This area, shaded in yellow, is not a prediction track, which is normally issued when the storm gets stronger or is about to turn into a depression.

If the system gets stronger at least in a tropical storm, the name of the next available storm is Michael.

National Meteorological Service forecasters have said that the Caribbean could become a "nest" for some tropical activities in the coming days to the next few weeks.

"It is also very normal for October, especially as there is a minor double peak around October 15 for the Atlantic basin," said forecasters in a note on Wednesday. "At the moment, there is no threat to the region, but it is always a good idea to remain vigilant even as we approach the end of the season."

The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30th.

Read the full review.

Carlie Kollath Wells is a morning reporter at NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune. Do you have a tip for the first birds? Send it to him: [email protected] or Twitter @carlie_kollath.

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