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Radar simulation of Hurricane Michael from the HRRR model between 6 am Wednesday and 6 am Thursday. (PivotalWeather.com)
Hurricane Michael quickly strengthened in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and continued to intensify Wednesday morning, threatening to become the most intense hurricane ever recorded to hit the Panhandle of Florida. The dangerous Category 4 hurricane will blow up to 145 mph, and is expected to land on Wednesday afternoon. It would be the first time a hurricane of category 4 hits the Florida Panhandle since the beginning of the records in 1851.
As the storm intensified on Tuesday night, forecasters on Twitter described feelings of disease and fear. "Hurricanes that intensify overnight just before landing are the worst nightmare for forecasters and emergency managers," tweeted Bob Henson of Weather Underground.
The Florida Panhandle, from Pensacola to Apalachicola, and the Big Bend area are expected to be the hardest hit. Water levels have already begun to rise and the storm is about to push back on the coast an "oceanic" tide threatening life, which could flood the seawater more than 325 miles of coastline.
The storm will also bring destructive winds and torrential rains throughout Wednesday and conditions were rapidly deteriorating on Wednesday morning when the outside bands of the storm began whipping the Panhandle.
The population centers that could be most affected by hurricanes include Fort Walton Beach, Destin, Panama City Beach and Apalachicola.
"#Michael will make a new story for the Panhandle Center, Big Bend," tweeted Rick Knabb, hurricane expert in the weather channel. "Some of you may have water and wind worse than ever before.
The surge, or rise of ocean water over normally dry land along the coast, could reach 9 to 13 feet, flooding roads, homes and businesses. The National Weather Service warned that many buildings could be completely washed away and that "the sites could be uninhabitable for an extended period" after the storm.
Authorities implore residents who had not yet followed evacuation orders to leave.
"Our local offices, emergency management partners and the media in Florida urge people living in evacuation areas to go IMMEDIATELY inland," the meteorological service said. tweeted late Tuesday night. "#HurricaneMichael is coming and you're running out of time!"
While the most severe hurricane conditions are expected along the coast, the devastating effects of hurricanes are expected to extend over considerable distances inland.
"A potentially catastrophic event is developing," wrote the National Weather Service forecast office serving Tallahassee and surrounding areas. The office cautioned against "widespread power cuts, felled trees blocking access to roads and endangering people, structural damage to homes and businesses, isolated flash floods and the risk of some tornadoes ".
Strong winds and torrential rains are also expected to reach southern Georgia and southeastern Alabama on Wednesday.
Wednesday night and Thursday, Michael's heavy rains are likely to rage in the Carolinas, possibly leading to more flooding in some of the same areas still recovering from Hurricane Florence.
The last
On Wednesday at 8 pm, Eastern Time, the maximum winds of Hurricane Michael were 145 mph, a Category 4, since it moved north to 13 mph. mi / h. The National Hurricane Center said that additional reinforcement is possible before Michael touches land. The storm was centered about 160 km south-southwest of Panama City.
Rain bands had already begun whipping the Panhandle coast in Florida and a gust of 54 was recorded at the Apalachicola Regional Airport. Conditions in the Panhandle and Big Bend area of Florida are expected to deteriorate rapidly over the next few hours.
The landing is scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.
Storm effects
Storm wave
Michael is expected to hit an area extremely prone to storm surges because of the shallow depth of the adjacent waters on the plateau and the concave shape of the coast. In the manner of a bulldozer, the storm will sink a large amount of seawater inland, potentially flooding homes, roads and businesses.
Areas to the east of the storm center path will experience the greatest storm surge and floods will worsen around high tides.
Storm surges just east of where the center lands could touch 9 to 13 feet if the storm comes ashore around high tide. Here are specific storm surge projections from the Hurricane Center for sites in Florida:
- Tyndall Air Force Base in Keaton Beach: 9 to 13 feet
- Line from Okaloosa-Walton County to Mexico Beach: 6 to 9 feet
- Keaton Beach in Cedar Key: 6 to 9 feet
- Cedar Key to Chassahowitzka: 4 to 6 feet
- From Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island, including Tampa Bay: 2 to 4 feet
Rain
The Hurricane Center predicts widespread rainfall ranging from 4 to 8 inches from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend areas in northeastern southeastern Alabama and southern Georgia, as well as isolated amounts of up to 39 percent. one foot. "These rains could lead to flash floods threatening life," he said.
Heavy rains could arrive in southern Alabama and southern Georgia early Wednesday. Wednesday evening and Thursday, heavy rains will spread rapidly in Georgia and the Carolinas.
Precipitation of 3 to 6 inches is likely to affect some of the hurricane recovery areas of Florence in the Carolinas, which could result in more floods. Some parts of eastern Georgia and southern Virginia can also receive from 3 to 6 inches.
It is expected that rains will reach eastern central Atlantic late Wednesday night on Thursday night to Thursday, before dissipating rapidly Friday, where it is very likely that 1 to 3 inches deep will reach locally.
Wind
Michael's maximum sustained winds are expected to be around 140mph (maximum) as he hits the coast. Winds as strong will be limited to the ring around his calm eye, called "wall of the eye," and "catastrophic" wind damage could occur in this narrow area. Here is the damage described by the hurricane center associated with Category 4 winds:
Well-built frame houses can suffer significant damage with the loss of most of the roof structure and / or some exterior walls. Most trees will be broken or uprooted and the electric poles will be cut down. Fallen trees and utility poles will isolate residential areas. The power outages will last for weeks or even months. Most of the region will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
After the storm, this wall of eye will collapse quickly and the winds will weaken.
Although hurricane winds of more than 74 mph are limited to a relatively small area, winds of 39 to 73 mph in tropical storms will occur in a much larger area and could result in minor structural damage as well as many felled trees and power outages. . The weather service tweeted that the winds of the tropical storms "currently extend over 300 km".
A computer model run at the University of Michigan predicts that nearly 2 million customers will lose food, the majority in the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia.
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