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President Trump is not on the ballot in November. It is not an option in the voting booth, nor a candidate for a senior position.
But that did not stop the president and some of his entourage from making an unequivocal speech for "Trump 2018" – even though he says he will not accept the blame if the Republicans lose in November.
"I am not on the ticket, but I am on the ticket, because it is also a referendum on me," said Trump at a rally in Southaven, Miss. "I want you to vote, imagine that I'm on the ballot."
He said much the same in West Virginia, where he was promoting the Senate-elected Senate GOP candidate: "A vote for Patrick Morrisey is a vote for me," Trump said, noting that Morrisey's campaign had been reaffirmed in a new advertisement.
And Donald Trump's son of the same name, Donald Trump Junior, made a similar call, warning that even if voters do not even know the member of their local convention, they intuitively understand that Donald Trump's name appears on the board. ballot. "The reality is for them, Trump is on the ticket in 2018," said Trump Jr. during a recent election campaign in Texas.
All mid-term elections are, to some extent, a referendum on the incumbent president and the ruling party. But thanks to the strength of his personality and his bold statements, Trump deliberately placed himself at the center of the November elections, explicitly explaining to voters that they voted for a vote, rather than for their local representative.
President Trump listens to Representative Andy Barr (R-Ky.) To speak at a rally on Oct. 13 in Richmond, Kentucky (Andrew Harnik / AP)
"And how surprising is it?" Joked Jennifer Duffy, editor-in-chief at Cook Political Report.
White House policy director Bill Stepien said the strategy was a recognition that Trump's policies were already on the ballot in November. He could just as well use his personal appeal to try to convince Trump's coalition to vote for Republican candidates to back his agenda when he is elected.
"He is the leader of the party and he is ready to put his own political capital at stake for the benefit of his party," said Stepien. "The president knows how to run his base, he knows the DNA of his constituents and that's what he's responding to."
The risk, however, is that by boosting its base, Trump could also overthrow the Democratic Party while alienating moderate suburban voters, who could expect Congress to serve as a means of control to the president.
"The fatal flaw" in Trump's strategy, said Guy Cecil, president of Priorities USA, a super-PAC Democrat, "is the one that motivates our side and the second, he assumes that all of Trump's previous voters still vote Republican , which especially in the House and Governor races, we see that this is not the case. "
A supporter looks at President Trump at a rally on Oct. 13 in Richmond, Kentucky (JOSHUA ROBERTS / Reuters)
Trump's advisers have repeatedly told the president that extolling his accomplishments would not lead to mid-term participation and that he should continue to position himself as the counterweight to a liberal Democrat "crowd" threatening his achievements, said his relatives. They also pointed out that the improbable coalition of voters who helped him win in 2016 may not have been as motivated to vote in early elections. especially for Republicans who do not share his unconventional style.
In the meantime, the president told White House advisers that his supporters would not show up if they did not believe the elections mattered to him, added two councilors.
"It has basically incorporated the following message:" I am so important that people do not vote unless everything is about me, "said a former White House collaborator, speaking under the guise of Anonymity, in order to share frank conversations.
Trump asked his advisers how popular he was in some districts – and compared his current support to his 2016 margin. Councilors said that when he saw his numbers dwindling in a given district, the president would be more determined to to make it there. The president meets several times a week with his political team to discuss the elections.
The president has already announced to his advisers his intention to campaign for the Republicans six days a week, now only three days mid-term, and sees these mega-gatherings as a testing ground for his own re-election effort in 2020. It plans to travel nonstop in the last 10 days leading up to the November 6 elections, councilors said.
Councilors urged him, unsuccessfully, not to travel to Texas or Wisconsin, two states where the president announced campaign rallies next week. His team said he would waste his time, believing that Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) was going to win his race, while Governor Scott Walker (R-Wis.) Was going to lose his race.
While the wizards around Trump worry more and more about the prospect of losing the House of Republicans, the President himself insists privately that the polls are wrong and that his performances at rallies will lead the Republicans to victory midway through.
"All the polls say – and most experts say it has to do with what people think of him, his administration and the country's leadership," said Rudolph W. Giuliani, the country's personal lawyer. Trump's special advocate, Robert S. Mueller Russia's investigation of III. "Whether it's about him or not, they'll blame him for giving him the credit for his victory. So when he sees a situation like that, his instinct is, "Let's go." He remembers what his rallies did to bring out the base.
The president and his political advisers are telling Republican candidates that the only way to win is to support Trump, especially in business and economic terms. So far, the ground has sparked "mixed reactions," said a senior White House official.
Operators and pollsters from both sides say the strategy offers both risks and potential benefits.
A Republican pollster, Neil Newhouse, said the elections were already nationalized and Trump could be very helpful in pushing his constituents to the polls.
"He understands that this race will revolve around him and he will embrace it one way or another," Newhouse said. "What we need is that Trump's base and his more moderate supporters understand what's at stake in this election.
"There is a living politician who knows how to motivate his base, that's Donald Trump."
But Ted Strickland, a former Democratic governor of Ohio, warned that some Trump voters might have "buyer's remorse".
"He has his base but moderate to progressive independents, and even some Republicans are tired of his bravado and do not like him," Strickland said.
On the other hand, Duffy said the Democratic base was already approaching its maximum enthusiasm, which means its presence could have a bigger impact among Republicans.
Democrats, said Duffy, "have been stimulated for months. What is their ceiling? How much is there growth there? They are already close enough to their ceiling.
The real question for many is whether the president can motivate his low-ranking voters, who may not have voted regularly before 2016. Trump played an influential role in many Republican primary fights and helped his party to fill the gap at several special elections. Yet the Democratic Senate candidates in some states, won by Trump – Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – are leading their Republican rivals in recent polls.
The president and his team also seem to be trying to do it back and forth – positioning him as the savior if the Republicans win it, but by getting rid of any responsibility they? Re losing. Tuesday, Trump told the Associated Press that he bears no responsibility if Republicans do not keep the House.
Presidents have historically lost seats in mid-term elections, similar to former President Barack Obama in 2010 and 2014. His routing by the Republicans in 2010 was so devastating that he described it as a "deviousness" and publicly took his responsibilities.
Trump could be lucky in a better spell, said Newhouse.
"Whatever political rules we have learned over the past two decades is history," said Newhouse. "Trump is rewriting the political rules, so it 's not because it did not work for Obama that we can not believe it will not work for Donald Trump. "
Robert Costa contributed to this report.
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