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(Reuters) – A deadly attack on Iran's Revolutionary Guards' parade has dealt a terrible blow to Iran's security forces, who have often said they can repel any threat, even from the United States and its government. main ally of the Middle East, Israel.
A general view of the attack during the military parade in Ahvaz, Iran, on September 22, 2018. Press Agency Tasnim / via REUTERS
Saturday's attack among the worst guards showed that Iran's elite forces, which respond directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameni, may be vulnerable to guerrilla-type operations.
Iran enjoyed relative stability compared to the Arab neighbors who had to deal with the political and economic upheavals caused by the popular uprisings in 2011.
The guards vowed to take revenge for the attack.
WHO WAS RESPONSIBLE?
Iran has accused the United States and its Arab Gulf neighbors of shedding blood. But he did not submit any evidence.
An Iranian Arab ethnic opposition movement called the Ahvaz National Resistance, seeking a separate state in the oil-rich province of Khuzestan, has claimed responsibility for the attack.
The same is true for the Islamic State, which also claimed the 2017 attack on the Iranian parliament and the mausoleum of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, which killed 18 people.
Neither group has submitted evidence of their involvement.
Arab opposition groups have a long list of grievances against Iranian leaders and their frustrations are increasing.
The city of Ahvaz, where the attack took place, is the capital of Khuzestan, a border region of Iraq where the majority of Iran's Arab minority lives.
The community long felt neglected by the central government dominated by the Persians in Tehran.
The region has been particularly affected by economic problems that affect the entire country and the unemployment rate in Khuzestan is 14.5%, higher than the national rate of 11.8%.
Poor living conditions have been aggravated by electricity shortages and severe drought, due to the mismanagement of the central government. The people of Ahvaz have been forced to stay at home for some days because of the severe sandstorms related to last year's drought.
The armed opposition groups played on this discontent to try to obtain support for their actions, including attacks on oil pipelines in the region. Civil rights activists say the violent attacks undermine their peaceful efforts to help the community and lead to widespread arrests.
The Kurds of western Iran and the Baluchis of the southeast, two prominent minority groups, also complain of central government neglect. In recent months, Kurdish armed opposition groups have clashed with the guards in the border area with Iraq, causing several deaths and injuries on both sides.
In early September, the guards fired seven missiles at the base of a Kurdish opposition group in northern Iraq, killing at least 11 people.
WHAT WAS THE REACTION TO THE ATTACK OF IRAN'S RIVAL POLITICAL FACILITIES?
These attacks tend to unite Iranian reformers and radicals despite strong differences in national and foreign policies.
President Hassan Rouhani has rejected the growing economic and political influence of the Guards in recent years but, after the attack on Ahvaz, it will be difficult for Rouhani to challenge them.
According to analysts, the violence has boosted support for the guards, which they will likely use to silence their critics, including Rouhani.
President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw the United States from the international nuclear agreement with Iran will also give supporters of the military a greater political weight, arguing that one should not trust United States.
How will the revolutionary guards react?
Senior commanders said the Ahvaz attack was led by militants trained by the Gulf states and by Israel and backed by the United States. But it is unlikely that the guards will directly hit one of these enemies.
They will probably demonstrate a show of force by launching missiles at groups operating in Iraq or Syria that could be linked to the militants who led the attack.
After Tehran's attack by the Islamic State in 2017, the guards launched missiles at militant groups in eastern Syria a few days later. And after a series of clashes with Kurdish opposition groups in recent months, the guards launched missiles at a Kurdish opposition base in northern Iraq in early September.
The guards are also likely to enforce a strict security policy in Khuzestan province in the foreseeable future, stopping any national opponent, including civil rights activists.
Reportage by Babak Dehghanpisheh; Editing by Michael Georgy and Mark Heinrich
