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Democrats have a 7 percentage point advantage over which party should control the next Congress, according to a new Wall Street Journal / NBC News poll just days before polling day on Tuesday.
The Democratic advantage is slightly narrower than the 9 points the party obtained in a Journal / NBC News survey in mid-October and suggests a very competitive national landscape. In the new poll, 50% of likely voters said they wanted the Democrats to lead the next Congress, while 43% were in favor of Republican control.
While the survey paints a picture of the national electorate, congressional scrutiny will depend on voter preferences and trends in voter turnout in dozens of competitive districts of the House of Representatives and Senate races.
The new poll, the latest Journal / NBC poll published before polling day, also revealed that the large majorities are satisfied with the economy, which has historically been an advantage for the party in power.
Both parties are raised by record interest in this mid-term election. Some 81% of likely voters and 70% of the broader pool of registered voters express a strong interest in elections, more than in any mid-term elections since the Journal / NBC poll began tracking their interests in 2006 .
Electors from both parties are now showing an equally high interest, thus erasing a Democratic advantage found in previous surveys this year.
Peter Hart, a Democratic pollster who collaborated with Republican Bill McInturff in the survey, compared the results of a mixed poll to a kaleidoscope.
"Turn it one way and the numbers suggest a good Democratic night. Turn it over again, and this suggests that the GOP could get through, "Hart said.
McInturff said elections could produce a record gap between men and women, among voters likely to vote for a Democrat-led Congress rather than controlling the geopolitical people, between 55% and 37%. Men likely to vote are in favor of Republican control, from 50% to 43%.
Mr. McInturff said Republicans should be encouraged by indications that the democratic benefits seen earlier this year have been reduced, including in the preferences of voters who do not align with one or the other. the other party.
"He closed," said McInturff. "It's a more competitive race. But for Republicans, we feel a little ahead of what we would like to be for a national election. "
Among independents, registered voters prefer that Democrats control Congress with a margin of 9 points, from 35% to 26%, and 38% undecided. In the polls from January to October, independents had favored Democrats by 14 points over registered voters.
The national advantage of Democrats on the question of which party should control the Congress should be interpreted with caution, say pollsters. The districts of many states were drawn to the advantage of the Republicans, so the Democrats lost seats in the House even though they were ahead on several points at the national level in the issue of preferences Congress.
Another sign of the competitive nature of this year's elections is that the poll found that the democratic advantage is narrow in the districts that matter most in the battle for congressional control.
In the House elections identified by the non-partisan Cook political report as reinforcements or heading only to one party, 47% of registered voters said they preferred Democrats to control Congress, while 44% favored Republicans.
The poll suggests that the mood of the electorate is also kaleidoscopic, with signs of optimism and appetite for change. Nearly seven out of ten registered voters said they were satisfied with the economy and 74% of them said they were satisfied with their economic situation.
But 59 percent of registered voters said they want a change in leadership of President Trump at the helm of the country. About a third did not want much or any change.
Overall, Trump's approval of employment did not change from the October poll: 46% of likely voters approved his work and 52% disagreed.
President Trump is an important factor for voters in both parties: nearly three quarters of voters said their vote was supposed to send a message about him. Some 32% said their vote was a sign of support for the president; 40% said it was a signal of opposition to him. Only 28% said their vote was not a signal about Mr. Trump.
The acts and threats of violence during the last weeks of the campaign were less important in the voters' decision. Three-quarters of registered voters said their congressional votes had not been significantly affected by mass shootings in a Pittsburgh synagogue or by sending incandescent bombs to Democratic officials.
The survey of 1,000 registered voters, including 774 likely voters, was held from 1 to 3 November. The margin of error among registered voters is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Among likely voters, it is plus or minus 3.53 percentage points.
Write to Janet Hook at [email protected]
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