In key California House races, Republicans show up early and big

Just days before the mid-term elections, there is nothing to indicate that California is experiencing a "blue wave" of democratic votes, at least in the first rounds of mail-in ballots – and at some key races that will help to determine the control of the vote. House, the response of Republican voters has been strong.

Paul Mitchell, Vice President of Political Data Inc., warns Paul Mitchell, who provides voter information to various political campaigns. But so far, according to one of his mail ballots, Republican votes are keeping pace with the number of Democratic ballots.

"If we base ourselves on comparable figures, the postal ballots across the state are about 40% higher than the number of primary ballots, or 1%. , 7 million to 1.2 million, "he said.

The Republican-controlled districts that the Democrats are seeking to obtain the 23 seats they need to regain control of the House are attracting keen interest.

For example, in the 45th congressional district of Orange County, where Republican Mimi Walters is opposed to Democrat Katie Porter, the number of postal votes received over the weekend was almost double that of the June primary, said Mitchell. . In the 48th district, where Democrat Harley Rouda challenged Costa Rican General Representative Dana Rohrabacher of Costa Mesa (Orange County), the number of postal ballots increased by 84 percent.

In the 10th district of Central Valley, voters who split between Republican Jeff Denham and Democrat Josh Harder recorded a 69% increase in the number of postal ballots.

But the boost may not help the Democrats. In the Walters vs. Porter race, for example, Democrats accounted for 31% of mail-order votes, compared to 37% for Republicans. As of Monday, however, the total number of ballots returning to Republicans was 45% to 31%. The numbers were also uneven in the district of Rohrabacher, while in the race between Denham and Harder, the returns of Democrats and Republicans were about equal.

However, the Democrats are also right to indulge in the heart: the first returns often bias the Republicans. To read the full analysis of political writer John Wildermuth, click here.

Deep dive and late catch

Voters in the San Francisco Bay Area who are trying to overthrow the House do not have much at home: every congressional district is blue in complete security. Some therefore go to the Central Valley to try to overthrow the nearest Republican.

Central Valley District is also an excellent example of a trend in democratic politics: women dominate popular campaigns seeking Republican seats.

Meanwhile, in Orange County, the Democratic hopes of defeating Republican House candidates run into a bit of a reality: the GOP may have weakened, but it is far from dead.

The vote in San Francisco is no hotter than Proposal C, which would force big business to raise an additional $ 300 million a year for their homelessness programs. Opponents have suggested companies flee the city if it passes. But if they do, it is highly likely that their employees will not accompany them.

"What do you mean, he's not here yet?"

That was the reaction of former Mayor Willie Brown at his annual political breakfast Tuesday after Democratic presidential candidate Gavin Newsom won a draw to determine whether he or his Republican rival, John Cox, would speak first – and Newsom could not be found.

It finally made its appearance – all this was a misunderstanding, Brown said later – and presented a sunny view of the current state of California to counter the totally empty glass version that Cox presented to a crowd Democratic officials and power brokers. Joe Garofoli of The Chronicle was present – to read his report, click here.

His bite

The Democrats are targeting seven GOP seats in California to reach the 23 they need to take control of the House. But after visiting many of these districts in the final days of mid-2018, Chronicle's political writers, John Wildermuth and Joe Garofoli, doubt that Democrats win more than two of those California races. Listen to their podcast "It's all political" to find out why.

Trump shows

Last week, we asked the chairman of the Republican National Committee whether President Trump could come to California to help Republicans whose electoral fate is directly related to the question of whether the GOP will hold the House.

"Everything is on the table with the president and the party," said Ronna McDaniel. "He kept the last week of the free campaign, and he will be where it is needed."

Apparently, it is not necessary in California. Trump's program for the campaign last week includes trips to Montana (a tight race for a seat in the US Senate), two trips to Missouri (idem) and two trips to Florida (tight races in the Senate and Governor).

One could forgive the Democrats for hoping that their favorite leaf will come to the screen. At least one of them, Democrat Andrew Janz, who defies Trump's favorite representative, Devin Nunes, in the San Joaquin Valley, jumped on the mere rumor to appeal for donations. MAGA troops for Nunes?

We neither.

The big event

You are not yet full of politics? Join Heather Knight, Phil Matier and Joe Garofoli, political experts at The Chronicle, and editor-in-chief Audrey Cooper, moderator, at midday on Tuesday at 6:30 pm. at the Grand Theater, 2665 Mission St. in San Francisco. There are still some tickets left: click here for more information.

And the calendar of election nights has begun. There is one for the Resistance, one for the technicians, one for the Tenderloin community and another animated by a drag queen. Check out The Chronicle's Calendar of Political Events.