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SANTA CLARITA, California – After two years of energetic rallies, heated rhetoric and discussions about the blue wave being built, Democrats have begun to feel a last-ditch nausea.
Terrified of reliving the sadness they woke up in the morning of November 9, 2016, they try to control these nervous emotions and infuse a little bit of fear into the hearts of their followers.
Katie Hill, one of the party 's most promising candidates for the first time in Congress, reviewed a group of about 100 supporters a few days ago and revealed that a new poll indicated a change in membership. four points against her for decades. Conservative fief, driven by the consolidation by Republican voters in the camp of his opponent.
"We were ahead of a few points just a few weeks ago," she said from a campaign headquarters sandwiched between a vape shop and an arms shop. "The last poll we had a few days ago exactly related us."
"These are the ones that should be – I do not want to say the easiest – but those who should go from red to blue in this kind of climate," Hill later said about districts like his, won in 2016. by Hillary Clinton. "If we can not do these, then how are we going to do the ones that are more red?"
According to the latest assessments of Cook's political report, Democrats are favored in 11 of the 25 Republican-controlled districts won by Clinton. Republicans are favored by three. But 12 are still scraps and they see an explosion of energy and spending on both sides in a way that makes Republicans bullish and Democrats worried.
The problem for Democrats: their candidates are overflowing, money is pouring in and volunteers are eager to help. But in many of these seats, voters living in the districts are proving harder to convince than the Democrats had hoped.
"Am I hoping? Yes. I hope, hopefully, hopefully, "said Phyllis Steele, a 73-year-old retired teacher from Orange County, who recently came to hear Democratic candidate Katie Porter. "But because of Trump's election, I will never trust what will happen in the future."
Democrats have many ways to win the 23 seats needed to claim a majority in the House, but both sides focused on the Republican-controlled districts where Clinton won. Nearly one-third of Republican seats have resigned or are retiring, which was seen as an advantage for Democrats.
Some of the current problems exist in non-white majority districts where Democrats are worried about not sending Hispanic voters back. They have largely lost all hope of defeating the representative Will Hurd (R-Tex.) Or the representative David Valadao (R-Calif.), Whose Democratic opponents should be able to count on an unprecedented participation of Hispanics.
But the bulk of the fighting takes place in historically conservative suburbs, populated by highly educated voters, who disapprove of Trump and regard the midterm ballot as a way to express that discontent. National Republicans have already abandoned some of the districts – including those of Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-Kan.) And Mike Coffman (R-Colo.) – but they have redoubled their efforts in the Los Angeles area. where there are five highly contested races in districts that have long voted conservatively.
Democratic congressional candidate Katie Porter points to a speaker at a public meeting on the campaign held in a synagogue in Orange County on October 22. (Mario Tama / Getty Images)
David Wasserman, the editor of the independent magazine Cook Political Report, which follows the political races, said the Republicans had been able to narrow the gap between enthusiasm and enthusiasm. But Democrats still have an advantage over an unpopular president and historic riding tendencies that show undecided voters breaking against the ruling party. Democrats also post impressive figures in several early-voting states, a possible sign that their voters are more motivated.
"The Democrats are in a panic because the elections are in two weeks," said Wasserman, recalling a similar Republican plague in October 2010, just before the party won 63 seats.
He said he expects democratic gains of between 25 and 35 seats, just above the margin of control. Republicans conceded privately that they would lose at least 18 seats, but not more than 40.
"The Democrat ceiling probably went down because we saw Republicans recovering somewhat in the Trump-winning districts," said Wasserman. "I think they're less likely to win 45 seats than they were a month ago, but I do not think their floor has changed."
The battle between the parties in the districts won by Clinton was long. The Democrats opened an office in Irvine, California, last year, in a conservative bastion of Orange County and not far from the offices of the National Republican Congressional Committee. Clinton won the county, the first Democrat to do so in a presidential election since 1936. The goal was to feed Clinton's advantage with the anger of Californians, many of whom women, who made the state the center of Trump resistance.
"It's a story of white college-educated voters who are disillusioned with the Republican brand," said a Democratic strategist involved in the campaigns. "That's why we are competitive."
Democrats focus on Republican bills on health care, climate change and taxes. They believe that the tax bill has a special resonance in the pockets of the upper middle class where homeowners will be hit by a cap on tax deductions.
They also make the difference between trying to tap into the liberal energy that runs through much of the party while appealing to the moderates that make up the districts where they appear. Harley Rouda, who stands in the heart of Orange County against Republican Dana Rohrabacher, was a Republican and praised the support he received from Republicans in the district.
"What we are seeing is the frustration of politicians in general who are becoming more and more supporters," he said during an interview at his campaign's headquarters. "They are tired of politicians who constantly lie and push their programs forward."
Hill runs in a northern district that has been represented for 25 years by a Republican, most recently Steve Knight. The 25th district is home to the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library and has long been dominated by white conservatives. Even his father has been Republican forever and has voted for Knight many times.
Hill posts ads boasting of always owning a gun and speaking of his first shot at the age of 7. Her signs are purple to show bipartisanship, and she has had to temper the expectations of the influx of volunteers from the north of the country. near Los Angeles.
"I had to do a lot of education," she said. "I am a good progressive. . . but I do not want to accept much of this rhetoric that has become quite ubiquitous in some of the Liberal strongholds, because it will simply not work in my district. "
Hill said a turning point in his race had come at the time of hearings in the appointment of Supreme Court Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh, and that undecided voters were beginning to part with his Republican opponent. She found this particularly disheartening, being one of the few candidates to have spoken openly about her own sexual assault.
"It's good that we are a bit more nervous now," she said. "There is a tendency to be complacent. Even for me, there was an idea of "We do not need to collect so much money now. In fact, I can just talk to the voters and not collect money. It is now: "No, we must really continue this fight".
"What we see is so many people saying," I did not do enough in 2016 and I woke up the next day wondering what else I could have done? She said, "I do not think anyone wants to feel that way this year."
In a backyard at Hacienda Heights in the south, enthusiasm was audible for Gil Cisneros, Democratic congressional candidate, in search of 39th District House headquarters against Republican Young Kim. Gil on the hill! Gil on the hill! "Have chanted supporters, posing for photos with him and preparing to spend hours knocking on doors.
What they could not do, was vote for him. About two-thirds of those who pledged to devote this Sunday afternoon to political activism lived elsewhere. A couple came from San Francisco.
"This election is too important and, for the moment, ours is too close. It's too tight, "said Cisneros to the crowd of this diverse district east of Los Angeles that Clinton won by nine points. "The last three polls that have been published have only increased us from one point to another. This election can always go both ways.
On Monday evening, a hundred people went to a synagogue in Tustin to listen to Porter, the Democrat defying another Republican threatened, the representative Mimi Walters, who won his first seat in the 45th district in 2014, talked about the tax bill . She was confident and answered questions about what she would do when, not if, she would arrive in Washington.
But the voters there seemed to be in a state of uncertainty. They want to be optimistic, but they said that after Trump's unexpected victory, they would never trust their expectations again.
"I'm starting to worry. I'm starting to look forward to it, "said Carol Barnes, a 70-year-old retired clinical laboratory scientist from Anaheim East. "We just have to go on and hope for the best. I do not want to go home crying anymore. "
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