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State Secretary Mike Pompeo is greeted Wednesday by Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj upon arrival at New Delhi airport.
Manish Swarup / AP
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Manish Swarup / AP
State Secretary Mike Pompeo is greeted Wednesday by Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj upon arrival at New Delhi airport.
Manish Swarup / AP
India and the United States are the largest democracies in the world. They are both capitalist countries, nuclear powers and former British colonies. They should be natural allies.
But over the past year, the Trump administration has twice postponed high-level talks with India, citing scheduling conflicts. This left some in New Delhi feeling like the United States was taking India for granted.
Now, with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis in New Delhi for talks, they will seek to bring the two countries closer to what they have been since the Cold War. Their agenda for Thursday's talks would include key issues such as counterterrorism, maritime security and the fight against China's growing influence in the Indian Ocean.
But they must also reassure their Indian counterparts that the US commander-in-chief is on board.
The asset factor
Running for President, Donald Trump was one of the first candidates to film a Hindi campaign message. He promised the Indo-Americans that he would be "best friend" with India.
"We love Hindus!" Trump was exclaimed at a rally in October 2016 in New Jersey.
But last winter, images showing Trump shaking hands and imitating Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi became viral in India. At about the same time, a Washington Post article stated that Trump "was known to affect an Indian accent" by speaking of Modi at private meetings. Last month, another report, by Politico, said Trump had mispronounced the names of Nepali and Bhutan's Indian neighbors as "nipple" and "button", and offered to update Modi. (The Indian Prime Minister is separated from his wife.)
Modi, a right-wing nationalist who visited the White House in June 2017, nevertheless maintains a "pretty good relationship" with Trump, says retired Indian Navy Commodore C. Uday Bhaskar, who heads the Society for Policy Studies. .
But Bhaskar admits, "You do not know what tomorrow's tweet will be coming out of the White House."
The United States and India have already opposed H1 – B visas for skilled Indian workers in the United States and tariffs on the United States. Indian steel. The American motorcycle company Harley Davidson, who criticized Trump's decision to levy duties on imported steel, owns one of his only foreign factories in India, just outside the capital, New Delhi .
emergence of China
But Thursday's talks between Pompeo, Mattis and their Indian counterparts – Sushma Swaraj and Nirmala Sitharaman – should focus on defense and security rather than trade.
Mistrust could threaten US-India cooperation in the fight against China – which over the last decade has taken control of strategic outposts in the Indian Ocean.
"China now has almost a permanent presence in Djibouti, in the Horn of Africa, in Hambantota, Sri Lanka, where [it has leased] a port for 99 years, in parts of Myanmar and Bangladesh, where they will now supply submarines, "says Bhaskar." What she does is reduce the Indian profile – and we do not even speak from Pakistan, Iran and Persia Gulf. "
India feels surrounded and does not have as much money as China to fund regional projects. This is an area where India would like the United States to intervene.
In exchange, Washington may have demands for India: stop buying Iranian oil and Russian weapons.
Russian weapons
India is the largest importer of arms in the world and Russia is its largest source. This goes back to the Cold War, when India was officially non-aligned, but signed a 1971 treaty with the Soviet Union and bought defense equipment from the communist nation. Russia has inherited this relationship with India.
But last year, the US Congress passed a law allowing countries that purchase significant amounts of defense equipment from Russia. The United States may grant India a waiver of these sanctions, giving it more time to evade Russian arms, Bhaskar said.
"What President Trump and his administration are now trying to do is give some space to India," he said.
In the last 10 years, India has bought more weapons in the United States. Since 2008, arms imports from the United States have increased by 557%, making it the second largest supplier of India, behind Russia.
Iranian oil
With regard to Iranian oil, the United States wants all countries to stop buying it by November 5.
But with virtually no oil and natural gas, India's needs are enormous. India has the fastest growing economy in the world and is hungry for energy. India is the second largest Iranian oil buyer after China.
On a visit to New Delhi in June, US Ambassador to the United States, Nikki Haley – born Nimrata Randhawa, of Indian immigrant parents – warned India to "rethink" its relations with Iran .
But if Pompeo and Mattis make such a request from their Indian counterparts this week, they may be put off, says Rajeswari Rajagopalan, a security analyst at the Observer Research Foundation, a think tank in New Delhi.
"I think India will say," This will not happen – not completely, "she said." India will not want to be considered making a decision under US pressure. "
Rajagopalan predicts that India will gradually reduce its dependence on Iranian oil, but that it will not be "immediate and radical," she says. It already does, she says, and there are other options, including oil from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United States.
An Iranian port funded by India
The United States would be more inclined to comply with US demands that it stop buying Iranian oil, Rajagopalan said, if the United States was willing to reach an agreement on Chabahar, a port funded by the United States. India in southern Iran. This is the only place where India is trying to do exactly what China has already done: fund strategic outposts throughout the region.
But after 15 years of development, the port of Chabahar opens at the moment when the American sanctions against such investments take effect. This is unfortunate for India.
Thanks to Chabahar, India could boost trade with Afghanistan without having to depend on land routes through Pakistan, India's long-time enemy. It would also open links with the republics of Central Asia.
"But the question is, what is the price?" Rajagopalan asks, referring to the possibility of punitive sanctions in the United States. "A second problem about Chabahar is, OK, and if India did not do it? Who would do it? Will China fill the void there?"
Last year, Sri Lanka sold its port of Hambantota to China for a 99-year lease, after being unable to repay its debts to Chinese companies. Years ago, India had the opportunity to invest there, but did not act fast enough, notes Rajagopalan.
Access to "Hambantota harbor was at the origin [offered] in India, "she says. But we took our time to make a decision on this, and in the meantime, China arrived and they got the deal. "
If the United States were to give up sanctions against India for its use of the port of Chabahar in Iran, it could help one of the United States to fight against China. But it could hurt another – isolate Iran.
This is an example of the tough decisions that the United States may have to make in negotiations with India.
