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Mike DeBonis
Congress reporter covering the House of Representatives
With the intention of speaking in the House, Nancy Pelosi speaks to a potentially historic class of newly-elected women Democrats, while Republican Kevin McCarthy attacks the conquest of the only man able to settle any struggle at home. GOP leadership, President Trump.
Both legislators assume the role of spokesman waiting while the candidates are fighting nationwide for the majority in the House. They act aggressively to consolidate power and take their first steps if their party takes control of mid-term elections next month.
The two Californians are not only collecting millions of dollars and campaigning for the candidates as they strive to claim the supreme hammer of Congress next year. They also work quietly to overcome internal challenges in an uncertain political environment that will not be resolved until polling day – or weeks later if key races remain unresolved.
For Pelosi, extending his 16-year tenure as Democratic House Leader-and taking over from the President after eight years of minority-would be tantamount to emphasizing his innovative status as the first woman president and standing as a lonely woman. to the leadership of the Washington government. fight Trump.
"You can not let the opposing party choose the leader of your party," said Pelosi at an event held this week at Harvard University, rejecting the GOP's incessant attacks against her, who have prompted dozens of Democrats to keep their distance.
"And I say especially to women because they think they're going to flee a fight," she said, suggesting that critics talk about sexism. "But you can not do that," she added. "You believe in what you have to offer. Know your power.
[The Daily 202: Trump believes the midterms will be a base election]
McCarthy, the leader of the Republican majority in the House, has been trying to strengthen his right flank by focusing on a crucial issue for Trump – immigration, and particularly his proposed US-Mexico border wall. McCarthy, 53, faces a challenge from Representative Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), founder of the very liberal House Freedom caucus, to succeed President Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.), Who leave office.
Earlier this month, McCarthy introduced a bill to fully fund the wall at a cost of $ 23.4 billion and promised to put it to a vote after the election. "I think we can do it," McCarthy recently said in Fox News, adding, "That's why we will fight for it."
Externally, Pelosi and McCarthy have expressed confidence ahead of the Nov. 6 elections, as Democrats are enthusiastic and have a financial edge, but with recent signs of a GOP rebound.
Behind the scenes, the two leaders feel more and more confident that they will be able to retain the reins of power if their respective parties win comfortably at mid-term. But a lean razor majority on both sides could reverse their well-established plans.
House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), Left, at a press conference with Speaker of the House, Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) At Capitol on last month. (Win McNamee / Getty Images)
If the GOP manages to hold the majority, it will almost certainly be greatly reduced by the current margin of 23 seats, according to the strategists of both parties. This could leverage Jordan, or another supporter with a small support block, who could deny McCarthy a majority in a vote in the Speaker's House. Trump could avoid this result by saying that he prefers the man he calls "my Kevin."
Marc Short, former director of Trump's Legislative Affairs, said he was not expecting Trump to take a starred role in the struggle at the direction of power.
"The president has expressed his commitment to Jordan and the way it defends it," said Short. "But it's hard to find a member of management who is more loyal to the president than Kevin."
Trump followed the leadership race. During his visit to North Carolina for a fundraiser at the end of August for representative Ted Budd (right), Trump spoke about Jordan's opposition duel to McCarthy during a discussion with a group of legislators.
"What do you think of Jim?" Asked Trump representative Patrick T. McHenry (CR), according to people who knew of the conversation. McHenry – one of the GOP's top vote counters – told Trump that Jordan could not get 60 votes and that Trump seemed surprised. Trump has since repeated the figure to others, said the people.
Jordan has not followed the usual path that has led the House to go to great lengths to raise funds and engage in twisted relations with its colleagues. Instead, he spent much of October in Washington, interviewing FBI and Justice officials behind closed doors and appearing almost daily on Fox News to discuss allegations of abuse by the police. agencies.
Even if Jordan fails to get enough support, as most Republicans want, he could avoid McCarthy and allow another Republican – such as the majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.), Who himself undertook an exhausting fundraising and travel program – emerging as a leader.
The figures pose such a great threat to 78-year-old President Pelosi, with nearly a dozen Democratic legislators in place who have voiced their opposition. The more general question, say the assistants, is how the Democratic candidates who have moved away from Pelosi will proceed if they are elected.
Traditionally, members of a party are expected to unite in the House behind those who win it during an internal caucus vote. In 2017, for example, only four Democrats opposed Pelosi after 63 of them voted against the caucus secret ballot. His critics say things might be different this time, considering that Republicans have made Pelosi a central figure in many races.
But while dozens of Democratic nominees have called for new leadership, only a dozen have categorically said that they would not vote for it on the ground or that they would not broadcast TV ads against them. Most of these candidates have embarked on long-running races, which means that if they won, Democrats could have a significant enough majority that she did not need their votes. .
"Every time you make a campaign promise on an important topic and then go back to it, it would be a dangerous terrain, especially from the start," said Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), who challenged without success. Pelosi after the 2016 elections.
No Democrat has openly challenged Pelosi for first place, and his opposition within the Democratic caucus is only weakly organized. But even some of its allies have pushed for an upheaval.
The black caucus members of Congress, for example, want an African-American democrat closer to the top of power. Representative James E. Clyburn (DS.C.), a former CBC president who held the Democratic leadership position # 3, said he was "put at my disposal" as a speaker if Pelosi hesitated, but he did not anticipate this coming. pass.
"The coldest heads will prevail," he said.
Still, Pelosi left little to chance, acting fast last month, for example, to cancel a proposed rule change that could weaken his grip on power. In the meantime, it has been asserting itself on the national scene in recent weeks by openly discussing initiatives to be taken by Democrats, including legislation on election campaign financing, thorough background checks of buyers and sellers. firearms, infrastructure financing, lower drug prices and increased Trump surveillance. administration.
More discreetly, she has met or spoken privately with almost all the winners of the Democratic primary primaries in recent months – moderate from the center of the country and leftist insurgents. At the end of July, in San Francisco, she met with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the extreme left-wing candidate who overthrew the representative Joseph Crowley (DN.Y.), Democratic leader No. 4 and ally of Pelosi, at the same time. a primary.
Since then, she has campaigned with Democratic candidates from California to Minnesota via Florida and left no doubt about her intent to remain the party leader.
"It sends a message of strength. This sends a message of unity. This sends a message: we have to solve this problem, "said Nadeam Elshami, Pelosi's former senior associate. "It's one, but, two, never underestimate what two, three, four, five steps [ahead] she has in her head. "
In his conversations with the Democrats, Pelosi generally did not ask for their votes, nor even mentioned the next leadership race, according to several candidates and assistants familiar with the conversations. She encouraged them to do everything in their power to bring the Democrats back to the majority. As Pelosi said during his recent appearances, "Just win, baby".
Some of Pelosi's allies were more aggressive. Representative Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.) Stated that she had lobbied women candidates on her behalf, highlighting Pelosi's role as a political precursor.
For Pelosi and McCarthy, the cause of the speaker's hammer begins with dollars. Pelosi announced a record fundraiser, including $ 30 million for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Already this month, McCarthy has campaigned for nearly two dozen Republican candidates in tight races and sent over $ 7 million to party committees and individual campaigns.
A dinner co-hosted by Mr. McCarthy last month with Vice President Pence at the Trump Hotel in downtown Washington raised $ 15 million for the National Republican Congress Committee and Protect the House, a McCarthy-sponsored joint committee that injects domestic donor money directly into GOP campaigns. holders
Some of these incumbents are conservatives who hesitated during McCarthy's last presidential race in 2015. McCarthy now claims not only with campaign checks, but also with a naked vote on radical political measures. .
Before the House left Washington at the end of September, McCarthy had scheduled the vote for a resolution disapproving of efforts such as some local jurisdictions have pursued to give undocumented immigrants the right to vote. This month McCarthy announced – in an exclusive statement to Breitbart's conservative media – that he would vote to fully fund the post-election border wall.
Josh Dawsey, Gabriel Pogrund and Cat Zakrzewski contributed to this report.
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