In the Syrian province of Idlib, Turkey faces a perilous mission and a disaster if it fails

ISTANBUL – As the main supporter of the besieged Syrian opposition, Turkey is now facing a dangerous task. He must disarm his rebel allies in the Syrian province of Idlib, under a new agreement with Russia, and eliminate the most demanding jihadists.

If this is not the case, the Syrian and Russian allied forces have threatened to attack the territory unceremoniously, a battle which, according to the humanitarian agencies, would be the most devastating of the war. The cost for Turkey itself could be immense.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, announced an 11-hour plan on 17 September to prevent bloodshed, giving Turkey more time to persuade its proxies to disarm. As part of the pact, Turkish and Russian troops patrol a demilitarized zone – about 9 to 12 miles deep and free from extremists and heavy weapons – and finally open Idlib's roads to traffic.

Idlib's 3 million people may have a break, but the fate of the province remains uncertain. It represents the last bastion of opposition in Syria after nearly eight years of conflict and the stakes for Turkey are high because it is bordered by the province and its troops are stationed there.

"Turkey's interests are entangled in Idlib in a way that makes Turkey exceptionally vulnerable," said Sam Heller, an analyst with the Beirut-based International Crisis Group.

Turkey is planning an influence by helping Idlib stay in opposition, which, according to Heller, "strengthens Turkey's position in the negotiations on Syria's political future." The presence of Turkey in Syria province, to take into account the interests of Ankara.

But Turkey is also dangerously exposed. "There are really dire implications for Turkey if Idlib were to collapse," Heller said.

A battle for Idlib could send millions of new refugees to the border, whose officials fear causing social and political upheaval in Turkey.

More than 3 million Syrian refugees already live in Turkey, and "there are very few problems that unite most Turks, one of them being the opposition to Syrian refugees," said Soner Cagaptay, author of "The New Sultan Modern Turkey.

In recent weeks, rumors of an offensive have caused more than 30,000 people to have fled to different parts of Idlib, the United Nations said. Some of them have returned home recently.

The Turkish government is also worried about the influx of displaced Syrians who could be infiltrated by hard-line militants, leaving Turkish cities – and even European countries – vulnerable to extremist attacks.

Metin Gurcan, a former Turkish military adviser, wrote in a column for the Al-Monitor online news portal.

Turkey has long supported anti-government rebels in Syria and has invested heavily in Idlib province with troops and military equipment, seeking to separate al-Qaeda-related fighters from more traditional rebel ranks.

Turkey has recently reinforced its observation posts in Idlib, created under a previous agreement with Russia and Iran, deploying tanks, commandos and multiple rocket launch systems, Gurcan said. The goal is to demonstrate Turkey's commitment to Idlib and strengthen its defense against militant attacks, Gurcan said.

The agreement reached last week, although not very precise, "has won more time for diplomats, politicians to still do their job and avoid what can still be a very bad development for civilians," Jan said. Egeland. journalists in Geneva.

"It's not a peace agreement, it's an aversion to a large-scale war deal," he said. But the deal put an end to what appeared to be an endless countdown, he said, even though the message that US officials have received from Turkey and Russia is that "we are still working on the details".

Turkey now faces a tight, if not unrealistic, deadline for demobilizing allied rebels and persuading al-Qaeda-linked groups to abandon the struggle.

The document signed by Putin and Erdogan places the deadline of 10 October for all heavy weapons – including tanks, mortars and artillery systems – to be removed from the horseshoe-shaped area. And by October 15, all designated terrorist groups must be eliminated from the area, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former Al Qaeda affiliate and the largest armed faction in Idlib.

The agreement "puts difficult times" for Turkey to demobilize its partners and "take care of HTS", writes on Twitter Aaron Stein, researcher at the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East of the Atlantic Council. "Dates are fast."

HTS, which has about 10,000 fighters, called the agreement an attempt "to weaken the mujahideen" by disarming their ranks.

"Where will the Idlib terrorists go? What are they going to do there? Wrote Sami Kohen, Turkish columnist for foreign affairs.

"Will they give up their actions and agree to be integrated into Syrian society?" Asked Kohen. "A more pessimistic possibility is that the terrorist groups are refusing to give up their weapons and their positions and to resist the Turkish soldiers."

If Turkey fails to persuade its rebel allies to abide by the agreement, they could become even more belligerent.

A spokesman for the Turkish-backed National Liberation Front, an opposition coalition in Idlib, said the rebel groups remained on high alert.

"I do not think that Turkey will give anything" to Russia in the negotiations, said the spokesman, Captain Naji Mustafa. "Turkey has been supporting the Syrian revolution since the beginning."

But, he added, "Turkey knows that if a military operation took place, the people of Idlib would not return to the areas under the control of the regime. They will try to go to Turkey. And Turkey does not want it.

Zakaria Zakaria contributed to this report.

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