In Trump's America, violence wins.

On Thursday night, President Donald Trump celebrated a violent crime. At a rally in Montana, Trump greeted representative Greg Gianforte, who pleaded guilty last year to assaulting a journalist. Trump has imitated the dismantling of Ben Jacobs by Gianforte, a Guardian correspondent who, on the last day of a congressional special election in May 2017, had been trying to question Gianforte on health care. "All the guys who can do slam is my type, it's my guy," Trump told the crowd, cheering.

Trump looked to the side and saw someone – apparently Gianforte – who seemed embarrassed by his remark. "There is nothing to be embarrassed," said Trump jovially. "I had heard that he had massacred a journalist. … and I said, "Oh, it's terrible. He will lose the elections. Then I said, "Well, wait a minute. I know Montana pretty well. I think that could help him. And it did! "Trump smiled and the crowd roared.

Trump's praise for this aggression contradicts his assertion, three minutes earlier, that "Democrats have become the party of crime". He has a long tradition of encouraging violence, and he always does so when he defends the Saudi government that apparently murdered a journalist two weeks ago. But Trump does not just say it's good to hurt people. He boasts that voters support politicians who hurt people or support them. He says that because Gianforte won in 2017 and Trump won in 2016 despite – or perhaps partly thanks to – his advocacy for violence and his tape-recorded confession that he sexually assaulted women.

Trump is betting that in 2018 he will win again. He thinks you will vote for Gianforte and other Republicans because you love their culture of brutality: beating up journalists and protesters, protecting Vladimir Putin, putting the FBI on the knee, mocking women who denounce sexual assault and separate the children from their parents. If you vote Republican, or if you stay home and let Trump's supporters win, he will claim that the 2018 elections, like the elections of 2017 and 2016, are a mandate for his war on morality and statehood. by right.

Since Trump's election, his behavioral habits – lying, smudging, baiting, overturning – have worsened. It's partly because these traits are in its nature. But it's also because they do not hurt him a lot. Republican legislators shrugged or laughed and continued to support him. Voters continued to elect Republicans in Congress. The first two members of Congress who approved Trump as president are indicted for financial crimes. In their re-election announcements, they start the race. And they win.

Trump believes that advocating violence and ridiculing victims is an effective political means tactical.

Most voters do not support violence. In the Montana special election, an automated survey by a Republican company revealed that 9% of voters, after hearing about Gianforte's attack on Jacobs, went to support the Democrat. But that was not enough to overcome Gianforte's lead. Many of his supporters missed or defended the attack. "We have seen how much the press is one way," said one of them. "Everyone's patience is over," said another. On Fox News, a veteran from Montana called Jacobs a "snowflake" and warned other troublemakers, "You're wrong, you may not be here."

Two weeks after the attack, Public Policy Polling asked a national sample of voters: "Do you think it's appropriate or inappropriate that Republican politicians do the same for journalists?" 72% of women and 65% of men said it was inappropriate. But among Republicans, it was a close call: 48% said it was inappropriate, while 41% said it was appropriate. Of those who voted for Trump, the distribution was almost equal: 45% were inappropriate and 42% appropriate.

The survey results, like the election results, highlight two issues. First, each branch of the federal government is now controlled by a party in which a near-plurality of voters support violence against the press. Majorities, pluralities or quasi-pluralities of Republicans also support discrimination against Muslims and believe that whites face more discrimination than minorities. And this is aggravated by a second problem: Americans who do not support these positions do not punish the GOP. Too many people who do not approve of Gianforte's body slam or Trump's wife abuse have still voted for these candidates.

In November 2016, outgoing pollsters asked voters, "Does Trump's treatment of women bother you?" Half of the respondents said that it bothered them a little, not a lot or not at all, and the vast majority of these people voted for Trump. But among the other half – those who say Trump's treatment of women bothered them a lot – 11% still voted for him. It made the difference. The same thing is happening now. In the latest Economist / YouGov survey, most people say that Trump is neither honest nor trustworthy and that he does not have the temperament of being president. Only 31% of respondents say he is honest and trustworthy, 18% say he is not hypocritical and 11% say he is not arrogant. But 41% say they will vote Republican for Congress. This is only five points less than the 46% who plan to vote Democrat.

That's why Trump celebrates the violence against the reporters and tells the police not to worry about beating the heads of the suspects on their police cars. That's why he says jokingly that "I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot someone, and I would not lose voters." Not remembering the details of her alleged sexual assault by Brett Kavanaugh, she saved Kavanaugh and secured his confirmation in the Supreme Court. Trump believes that advocating violence and ridiculing victims are effective political tactics. He thinks that people who appreciate this behavior will support Republicans and that many people do not like it enough to decide the election will stay home or vote anyway Republican.

He was right in 2016. He was right in 2017. What you do on polling day will tell him if he's still right.