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Counties located along the US coastline that suffered hurricane force winds from Florence in September saw an increase in population from 1980 to 2017, with an increase of 95 people per square mile – more than double the density. Overall, Gulf and East Coast shoreline counties, vulnerable to hurricane strikes, increased by 160 people per square mile, compared with 26 people per square mile in the rest of the continent, during the 1990s. of the same period.
"The growth of the coastal population and exposure is certainly the predominant factor in the increased costs of damage associated with hurricanes," says Steve Bowen, director and meteorologist at the consulting firm
Aon
"S
Risk Solutions Division.
Rising costs of the storm
The United States has recorded 40 hurricanes since 1980, calculated on the basis of inflation-adjusted dollars for 2018, with a cumulative damage estimate of $ 862 billion, according to a National Oceanic and Weather Disaster Analysis. Atmospheric Administration.
Damage from US $ 1 billion hurricanes
Force at the American landing
- Category 5
- 4
- 3
- 2
- 1
- Other*
* Includes tropical storms and Sandy
Notes: 2018 dollars adjusted for inflation; Includes storms with damage of less than $ 1 billion at the time of the event, but exceeds $ 1 billion after adjusting for inflation
Source: NOAA National Environmental Information Centers (NCEIs), Weather and Climate Disasters in the United States (2018)
The trio of Harvey, Maria and Irma in 2017 cost $ 268 billion, 31% of the damage since 1980, making it the most expensive year in 38 seasons. According to Moody's estimates, Florence caused less damage than those storms. At the top of the damage estimate of $ 38 billion to $ 50 billion, it will rank among the strongest storms since 1980.
Location, not wind
The strength of the wind is not the only factor that determines how bad a storm will be. Florence made landfall in the Carolinas as a Category 1 hurricane, due to the strength of the wind. The devastating effect of Florence, like Harvey in 2017, was mainly related to the floods.
Florence, 2018
Category 1 on arrival in the United States
People per square mile, 2017
Tropical storm-
force winds
Hurricane-
force winds
The relatively weak storms are among the most expensive. "The wind category does not fully capture the cost of damage from historic hurricanes," says Adam Smith of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Many population centers and infrastructure exist in vulnerable areas such as coasts and flood plains.
For storms like Harvey, changes in land use associated with urbanization, such as replacing permeable surfaces such as grass by impervious surfaces like concrete, can result in large changes in the runoff of water.
By the time he landed in 2012, Sandy had gone from a hurricane to what is known as an "extratropical" storm, but he hit large population centers causing "major damage." in several northeastern states ". the United States since 1980 with damage of $ 72.19 billion according to NOAA analysis.
People per square mile, 2017
Sandy, 2012
Extratropical on arrival in the United States
$ 72.19 billion worth of damage
(N ° 4 since 1980)
Tropical storm-
force winds
Hurricane-
force winds
Harvey, 2017
Category 4 at the landing
$ 127.50 billion in damages (# 2)
Katrina, 2005
Category 3 at landing
$ 165.01 billion in damages (# 1)
Irma, 2017
Category 4 at the landing
$ 50.97 billion in damage (# 5)
People per square mile, 2017
Sandy, 2012
Extratropical on arrival in the United States
$ 72.19 billion worth of damage
(N ° 4 since 1980)
Tropical storm-
force winds
Hurricane-
force winds
Harvey, 2017
Category 4
$ 127.50 billion (# 2)
Irma, 2017
Category 4
$ 50.97 billion (# 5)
Katrina, 2005
Category 3
$ 165.01 billion (# 1)
People per square mile, 2017
Sandy, 2012
Extratropical on arrival in the United States
$ 72.19 billion in damages
(N ° 4 since 1980)
Tropical storm-
force winds
Hurricane-
force winds
Harvey, 2017
Category 4
$ 127.50 billion (# 2)
Katrina, 2005
Category 3
$ 165.01 billion (# 1)
Irma, 2017
Category 4
$ 50.97 billion (# 5)
People per square mile, 2017
Sandy, 2012
Extratropical ashore
$ 72.19 billion in damages (# 4 since 1980)
Tropical storm-
force winds
Hurricane-
force winds
Katrina, 2005
Category 3
$ 165.01 billion
(N ° 1)
Harvey, 2017
Category 4
$ 127.50 billion
(No. 2)
Irma, 2017
Category 4
$ 50.97 billion
(No. 5)
Slower and wetter
Another contributing factor to the severity of Florence was the fact that the storm persisted in the area, flooding eastern North Carolina.
According to NOAA atmospheric scientist Jim Kossin, the speed at which North Atlantic hurricanes cross the earth has decreased by 17% from 1949 to 2016. Kossin published an article on the subject in Nature in June. Other things being equal, if you slow down the speed of a 17% storm, you will increase the rain by 17%, which will lead to a substantial increase in freshwater flooding.
Homes at risk
"With more people living in hurricane-prone areas, the damage is likely to increase," says Phil Klotzbach, a researcher with the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at Colorado State University.
According to CoreLogic, 6.9 million homes are likely to suffer hurricanes during hurricanes along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, 67% of which are located in 15 metropolitan areas. The value of reconstruction costs – the cost to completely rebuild homes at risk in a 100% destruction scenario in 2018, including labor and materials – is $ 1.6 trillion.
Value of the cost of reconstruction
By metropolitan area, 2018
As a percentage of the 2016 GDP of the metropolitan area
Value of the cost of reconstruction
By metropolitan area, 2018
As a percentage of the 2016 GDP of the metropolitan area
Value of reconstruction cost
By metropolitan area, 2018
As a percentage of the 2016 GDP of the metropolitan area
Value of reconstruction cost
By metropolitan area, 2018
Share of 2016 GDP in the metropolitan area
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