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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to meet his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, on Friday for formal talks in the Indian capital, New Delhi. Among the issues on the agenda is the possible purchase by India of Moscow's advanced S-400 Triumf ground-to-air missile defense system.
The agreement, which analysts expect to be signed at the meeting, could open India to sanctions imposed by the United States under the law entitled "Anti-Counterfeiting Act." Opponent by the sanctions against America "(CAATSA).
But while China is an emerging rival power, India is considered an important strategic ally of the United States.
India's purchase of the Russian weapons system would effectively force the Trump government to choose between punishing Delhi – and destroying emerging defense relations – or granting an exemption to the country, mitigating the effect of sanctions, and opening up the United States. United to accusations of favoritism.
Peter Layton, of the Australian Griffith Institute, told CNN that the problem for the United States is that if India allowed the purchase of the S-400, nothing also prevented from other countries, like Turkey, to do it. also.
"CAATSA will appear as a rather subjective sanction program if it applies only to certain countries and not to all," Layton said.
What is the S-400 Triumf?
The high-tech system is considered the most efficient ground-to-air system in its class, surpassing the capabilities of the aging American Patriot missile system, experts say.
It can engage targets, including unmanned and unmanned aircraft, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, with a range of up to 400 km, while remaining safe from conventional radar jamming equipment.
"The S-400 being so capable and at a relatively affordable price, it is difficult for US arms manufacturers to face the competition," said Layton, who explained that the missile system offered a report. price-quality superior to comparable US options.
The deal with Turkey has caused consternation in Washington, where a group of bipartisan legislators have tried to prevent the transfer of US fighters from the F-35 strike in Turkey, citing security concerns. .
"If India acquires the S-400, it may have more difficulties acquiring modern American fighter jets," Layton said.
"The United States could prevent this by refusing to allow India to purchase certain types of advanced fighter jets.It is important to note that other parts of the US-US relationship Indian would not be affected, simply by selling advanced military aircraft, "added Mr. Layton.
Potential going out
"If you look at the numbers and where India buys, you see a trend whereby America stands out from the others, and there are others in the world. future, "said Harsh V. Pant, professor of international relations at King's College London, referring to India's increased defense cooperation with the United States.
It is these future agreements, coupled with the need to maintain a strategic regional relationship with India, that will force Washington to neglect the purchase of the S-400 by India, Pant said.
"There have been enough signals indicating that the case of India will be viewed with sympathy.Of course we do not really know it given the Trump administration and that Mr. Trump is Mr. Trump" said Pant.
Washington has already seemed ready to discuss a possible exemption from sanctions for India.
"We are working to enforce section 231 of CAATSA in a proper and lawful manner and to exercise that waiver only when it makes sense," said Pompeo, adding that the US and India would seek to achieve a " logical result for everyone ". of our two countries ".
Ajai Shukla, a former Indian army colonel and defense specialist, told CNN that it was unlikely that the United States could destabilize their strategic alliance with India.
"That's why they (the US Congress) have passed the waiver sanction." India will certainly be subject to this waiver as the United States understands that the stakes with India are far too high. to compromise their relationship, "said Shukla.
The links between Russia and India date back to the Cold War, but the evolution of priorities and alliances has had adverse consequences.
"India considers that it is a normal strategic hedging strategy, but with Russia, there is a deep concern.That is why the visit of Mr. Putin is so important.At the moment the United States impose sanctions, they have adopted CAATSA and Russia's friendship test of India, "Shukla said.
"Russia has made it known that she was not satisfied with India, so she decided to build relations with China, Pakistan and Afghanistan."
The United States will likely recognize that the sale of sophisticated weapons by Russia to their Indian neighbors has positioned Delhi as a military disadvantage.
China is also acquiring the S-400 and could pass on this information on how to defeat the S-400 in Pakistan, said Layton of the Griffith Asia Institute. "(But) the two countries with the same SAM system will to some extent negate its benefits."
