Invest 96L in the Atlantic could turn into a tropical depression or a storm this week

A disturbance in the central Atlantic is poised to become the next tropical depression or tropical storm of the season. Although it will improve precipitation in Puerto Rico, the system poses no threat to the continental United States.

This system was named Invest 96L. This is a naming convention used by the NHC to identify systems. likely to turn into a tropical depression or tropical storm.

Currently, the tropical wave is located more than 200 km east of the Lesser Antilles and shows signs of increased storm activity.

Wind shear – the change of wind speed and direction in relation to height – is unfavorable to the formation of a depression or a storm, but conditions could gradually become more favorable to development by Tuesday or Wednesday, as the wind shear decreases and the ocean temperature rises system.

The NHC gives Invest 96L a great chance of development over the next 5 days with the most likely window for tropical development opening mid-week. If this system is named, it is called "Patty".

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The system will be guided west-northwest until Wednesday or Thursday by a high-pressure dome located above the North Atlantic. This will take Invest 96L near or just north of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday, then north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday.

A wave of tropical moisture will spread in the northeastern Caribbean as this system moves north. As a result, we can expect an increase in the activity of showers and thunderstorms in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday evening and Thursday.

Later on Wednesday night, this system could approach Turks and Caicos Islands and south or central Bahamas before the dome of high pressure heads east and the steering systems start to change for the system.

As is typical for the last months of the hurricane season, a cold front will sweep the east coast of the United States late Thursday or early Friday. This border will also serve as a shield for the United States and will redirect the system north and east by the end of the week.

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Forecasts still leave a lot of leeway for the progress of this cold front. The faster the border moves, the sooner the system will be detected and reversed and the less the Bahamas will suffer impacts. If the cold front is a bit slower, the result would be stronger rain in the Bahamas.

As a general rule, low rainfall is expected on the leeward islands earlier this week.

The system will move rather quickly, so that more precipitation in the west will be weak to moderate. Overall, there may be 1 to 3 inches of rain in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, then, even in the worst case, less than 2 inches in the Bahamas.

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Tropical Climatology in November

On average, a named hurricane and hurricane form in the Atlantic Basin during the month of November.

Tropical Depression and Storm Formation Most Probable in November near the Lesser Antilles, in the Caribbean Sea or sometimes in the central Atlantic Ocean.

After training, most tropical systems are captured by cold-season waves in the jet stream off the coast of North America and sent north-east to the open sea.

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The hurricane season ends on November 30th.