Iran and its trading partners will find ways to get around sanctions, analysts say: NPR

The Trump administration hopes that the heavy sanctions imposed on the Iranian oil, maritime and banking industries will cripple its economy and force it to negotiate a new nuclear deal.

But analysts point out that while such economic sanctions may be convincing, there are also ways to get around them.

"There will always be both obvious and secretive activities to circumvent sanctions, avoid sanctions or avoid them," said Dan Wager, global sanctions expert at LexisNexis Risk Solutions. "It's something that has been going on for a very long time."

Iran has endured global sanctions for years until 2016, when an agreement with the United States and other world powers gave it economic relief in exchange for restricting Tehran's nuclear program. President Trump unilaterally withdrew from this multinational agreement and imposed many US sanctions on Iran.

According to Mr. Wager, many techniques to circumvent sanctions are also used for money laundering, including the use of shell companies, freight forwarding companies or other intermediaries to conceal the origin or destination of the goods. It highlights Iran's efforts to procure aircraft parts and components – an essential requirement for the maintenance of its aging aircraft.

"There is a vast network of individuals who will be speaking to a company that provides aircraft components, engine parts, landing gear parts, aircraft parts, aircraft parts, aircraft parts, aircraft parts, aircraft parts, aircraft parts and other parts. avionics and electronic components, by someone in a country where this is allowed, "he says. "Once the goods are shipped there, they are then transhipped to Iran."

It is more difficult to circumvent the oil sanctions because the crude must be transported by large oil tankers in open water. But Iran has always found a way to do this in previous rounds of international sanctions, according to Peter Harrell, Senior Research Associate at the Center for a New American Security, a think tank in Washington, D.C.

"You have seen Iran ask its oilmen to turn off the tracking information.They would take these very winding navigation routes in an attempt to conceal that they were Iranian tankers." They changed the flag and they have changed their name – ship can hide its origin, "he says.

Nowadays, says Harrell, who has been working on sanctions at the State Department under the Obama administration, it is increasingly easier to track Iranian tankers using satellites.

The US government can also review financial transactions around the world to identify Iranian oil transactions. Elizabeth Rosenberg, a former Treasury sanctions official, said it would help track down – and penalize – any company or country doing business with Iranians, not just oil buyers.

"They could also go to the refiners," says Rosenberg. "Who else these refiners supply oil, who are their partners and their creditors? The transport companies, transport lines, brokers, who touch them.The Web is very large here," adds she.

Iran exported an average of 2.5 million barrels of oil a day before the US withdrew from the agreement in May. US officials say this figure has been cut by almost half.

The Trump administration wants Iran's oil exports – its vital economic engine and source of tax revenue – to be reduced to zero and punishes any country or company that continues to trade with Iran.

The other signatories of the Iranian nuclear deal are China, France, Germany, Russia and the United Kingdom. Many of these countries and others want to maintain the agreement.

Earlier this month, the United States granted temporary waivers to China, India, Greece, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Turkey, allowing them continue to buy Iranian oil without consequences for six months.

Harrell said energy-consuming countries are willing to take sanctions that could reduce their access to US markets. He says countries can use small businesses or banks to carry out transactions.

"So you could see countries like China importing oil – instead of oil being bought by a big Chinese company with a lot of business in the United States, it will be bought by a small company that does not really do it. any business in the United States and if it is sanctioned, then what, "he says.

Some sanctions avoidance methods fall into a gray area, such as holding payments on an escrow account, which India did the last time Iran was sanctioned. India and China also participated in a barter agreement whereby Iranian oil could be traded for industrial machinery, for example.

The European Union is also considering creating an Iranian oil purchase system that does not use US dollars or the US banking system. The special-purpose vehicle has not yet taken shape, as major European companies fear running into Trump's administration, says Wager, with LexisNexis Risk Solutions.

"It is certain that any person in this country willfully violating these sanctions will be the target of US law enforcement agencies," said Wager.