Iran is nearing the imposition of sanctions, but the US-China trade war puts an end to its gains

SINGAPORE: Brent crude oil prices climbed above $ 80 a barrel on Monday, as markets tightened after US sanctions against Iranian crude exports came next month.
The benchmark for Brent crude oil futures was $ 80.26 per barrel at 6:46 GMT, up 48 cents (0.6%) from their last closing price.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures prices in the United States were $ 69.60 per barrel, up 48 cents or 0.7%.
US sanctions against the Iranian oil sector, the third largest producer of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), are expected to begin on Nov. 4. The United States, under the chairmanship of Donald Trump, is trying to reduce Iran's zero-oil exports to force the country to renegotiate an agreement on its nuclear program.
US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told Reuters on Sunday that it would be harder for countries to obtain sanctions exemptions than during the previous Obama administration, when several countries, notably in Asia, had received them.
OPEC agreed in June to strengthen supply to offset the expected disruption of Iranian exports.
An internal document considered by Reuters, however, suggests that OPEC is struggling to add barrels, as the increase in Saudi supply is offset by declines elsewhere.
Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said Monday that other producers may have trouble compensating for the expected break-up in Iran and that oil prices could rise further.
US drillers added four oil platforms in the week to Oct. 19, bringing the total to 873, energy services firm Baker Hughes said Friday, bringing the number of rigs to its highest level since March. 2015. .
The number of US rigs is an early indicator of future production. With activity increasing after months of stagnation, US crude oil production is also expected to continue to rise.
Reflecting the rise in US crude exports, the Intercontinental Exchange announced that its new Permian West Texas Intermediate futures contract in Houston, Texas, would begin trading on Monday.
Besides the potential for increased oil supply, the ongoing Sino-US trade dispute should begin to weigh heavily on demand.
"The total impact of the trade war between the United States and China will affect the markets in 2019 and could pose a significant drag on oil demand next year, increasing the possibility of the market becoming surplus again. ", said the bank Emirates NBD in a note.
The Eastport broker said that "Chinese manufacturing was starting to slow down" and that "Trump's proposal to slap … tariffs on … additional Chinese products as of January 1st would be an additional drag on trade ".
K.Y. Lin, spokesman for Taiwan-based Formosa Petrochemical Corp., a major fuel refiner, said that "lower demand in Europe and the United States" already affected gasoline profit margins, because the excess fuel is sent to Asia.