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Oil industry analysts estimate that Iran sold about 1.5 million barrels a day to world markets in October, even as it was preparing for sanctions to come in. force Sunday.
"This is a result that exceeds expectations," said Iman Nasseri, general manager for the Middle East at Facts Global Energy. "The Trump administration wanted to see zero on Iran in November – we never thought it was a realistic result."
Businesses and governments have had six months to reduce their energy-related activities since the announcement of sanctions in May, following the decision of President Donald Trump to withdraw from the agreement on Iran's nuclear power.
While many buyers in Europe and Asia have complied with the requirements of the United States, China, India and Turkey, among others, still take large amounts of Iranian oil.
"The probability of Iranian exports falling to zero is very low, mainly because of China," said Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets at Rystad Energy.
"China has rejected US demand to stop importing Iranian oil and also has ways to get around US financial sanctions," he added.
Iran's oil production and exports peaked at 3.8 million and 2.4 million barrels a day, respectively, in the second quarter of this year, according to data from OPEC and the Agency. International Energy Conference. This means that exports have already decreased by about 900,000 barrels a day.
But fears of a global market supply turned into a surplus as Saudi Arabia led OPEC and Russia's efforts to extract more barrels to fill the expected supply gap in Iran.
While Iran's oil is still flowing, Saudi Arabia may need to consider cutting production rather than increasing it.
US crude oil futures fell nearly 11% in October to settle at around $ 65 a barrel, while the global benchmark, Brent, dropped more than 8 %.
A government source in Saudi Arabia said the kingdom had increased production to 10.7 million barrels a day from 10.5 million barrels in September. He is now worried about oversupply due to the limited impact of US sanctions, the source added.
Waiver for India?
"We have no official confirmation from the US government," Sunjay Sudhir, deputy secretary of the Indian Ministry of Petroleum, told CNN Business.
According to analysts, India, China and Turkey would probably be on the list of countries allowed to legalize their purchases.
"Any waiver for buyers of Iranian crude will most likely go to these," said Nasseri of Facts Global Energy.
Even if the derogations occur, the world's oil reserves could tighten at the beginning of next year.
The International Energy Agency said that this series of sanctions "could be more substantial" than in 2012, when Iranian exports had been reduced by 1.2 million barrels a day.
Facts Global Energy estimates that Iranian exports will stabilize in the first half of 2019 at 800,000 barrels per day.
Rystad Energy said exports could even drop to 600,000 barrels a day in the "worst case" if only China continued to import to its pre-sanction level.
