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Tehran (AFP) – While it is preparing Monday for the return of an oil embargo imposed by the United States, Iran can be reassured about the strength of its diplomatic position with respect to the past.
During the last period of sanctions between 2010 and 2015, most of the world lined up behind Washington to help enforce the embargoes aimed at curbing the Iranian nuclear program.
The United States had a highly respected president in Barack Obama, while Iran had Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was stirring up the populace, blunting the Western public with stunts such as Holocaust denial lectures and tainted by violent repression of demonstrations in 2009.
Today, for many observers, it is Iran that looks like the responsible actor.
European and Asian governments have been dismayed by the fact that President Donald Trump has abandoned the 2015 nuclear agreement that was hard won and to which Iran was complying.
Moscow and Tehran are now closely linked as military allies in Syria, while China sees Iran as an example of how it can counter its own US sanctions.
Meanwhile, the only powers that support the US position – Saudi Arabia and Israel – have been criticized for their behavior, especially after the shocking murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
"In the latest wave of sanctions, Iran had a very binary view of the evil actor in the region, and all the others were what Europeans and other actors wanted," Ellie said. Geranmayeh, Iranian analyst of the European Council. on foreign relations.
"But there is now a much more complex and complex public debate about the other regional actors and an awareness of the fact that everyone is playing a very dirty game in the Middle East.Nobody thinks that Iran is a holy, but there is a more nuanced vision, "she added. .
– & # 39; diplomatic suicide & # 39; –
The problem for Iran is whether this diplomatic goodwill can translate into tangible benefits.
The sanctions have already plunged the country into recession, according to the International Monetary Fund, and analysts expect it to lose at least half of its critical oil exports after Nov. 5.
Europe is working on special mechanisms to maintain trade, but its private companies have no interest in turning the enemy into a US Treasury treasure.
"Although Europeans are showing goodwill and inventing these bureaucratic mechanisms, the private sector is not interested in their use," said Clement Therme, Iranian researcher at the International Institute of Studies. strategic.
Iran, however, hopes to be able to rely on European and Asian governments to at least mitigate the harmful effects of sanctions.
But the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, made it clear that Iran would not wait indefinitely if the economic benefits of the nuclear deal disappeared.
"It is a choice of bad and worse.The option of withdrawing from JCPOA would be diplomatic suicide," Therme said, using the technical name of the nuclear deal.
"Even if the political support of Europe, Russia and China is not perfect, it is better than nothing.
"But Iran's sense of dignity makes it very difficult to maintain agreement if all major buyers stop buying oil or reduce their purchases."
Mohammad Marandi, a political analyst at the University of Tehran, said the issue was still open in Iran's corridors of power.
"This is certainly not the end of history.If the Europeans do not resist intimidation on the part of the United States and if the Iranians have serious problems to export oil, I think Iran will be heading for the JCPOA exit, "he said.
– European parcels –
Charges of terrorist plot and assassination against Iranian dissidents on European soil have been launched.
Denmark this week accused Tehran of planning a foiled attack on members of an Arab-Iranian separatist group based in the country. France said the Iranian intelligence ministry plans to bomb a rally of dissidents in Paris in June.
Iran denies these accusations and claims they are being spread by enemies to derail the nuclear deal.
Tehran remains confident in its ability to overcome sanctions, with analysts pointing out its deep experience of using informal networks and smuggling so that money flows freely.
What worries them is the lack of a clearly defined end game.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has submitted 12 claims aimed at reducing Iran's influence in the Middle East, but analysts say this equates to an impossible demand for regime change.
"Under Obama, sanctions had a clear and achievable goal of bringing Iran to the negotiating table on the specific nuclear issue," Geranmayeh said.
"Pompeo's 12-point plan essentially demands capitulation of the regime, which has left people puzzled as to how the sanctions might end."
