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LONDON – The crackle of gunfire has ceased to be a swirling around the world.
Militants disguised as soldiers opened fire at the procession of Iran's Revolutionary Guard while they marched through the city of Ahvaz on Saturday.
Arab separatists and the Islamic State group have both claimed responsibility for the bloodshed, while Iranian leaders implicated Gulf countries and the United States – promising a "devastating" response.
All have offered scant evidence for their accusations and claims.
What the attack does, however, is that Iranian opponents of various stripes see this as a "unique opportunity" to further their cause, according to Sanam Vakil, an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins School of International Studies Europe.
"More people are recognizing that Iran is coming under increasing pressure," she said.
This pressure comes from a multitude of sources both abroad and at home.
President Donald Trump has taken over the Islamic Republic, pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal signed under the Obama administration.
In July, Reuters reported that Trump wants to club together with Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, to create an "Arab NATO" to Iran container.
Iran is already locked in a series of proxy conflicts with Saudi Arabia. The two regional powers – Iran is largely Shiite Muslim, while Saudi Arabia is predominantly Sunni Muslim – Iraqi, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon.
Some of these conflicts have involved Iranian-backed forces fighting against ISIS, which has resulted in a certain amount of "blowback" at home, Vakil said.
Last June, for example, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Islamic Republic of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The extremist group also said it was behind Saturday's attack in Ahvaz.
Add to this pressure cooker to a population who has taken over the streets in defiance of their strict regime of political freedoms.
All of these destabilizing forces have been developed by Vakil, who is also a senior consulting research fellow at London's Chatham House think tank.
"This is a unique opportunity in Iran for Iranian weakness," she said.
Ahwaz National Resistance.
This movement is a separate state in Khuzestan, where most of Iran's Arab minority live. Ahvaz, where Saturday's attack took place, is the regional capital.
This community has long been neglected by the Persian-dominated central government in Tehran. They have been hit hard by Iran's economic and unemployment problems, and they have suffered drought and electricity shortages.
Armed opposition groups have played a part in this issue, which has included a number of attacks on oil pipelines in the region.
"Grievances caused by internal mismanagement and short-sightedness could be exploited by regional actors and exacerbated by global powers," said Ali Vaez, Iran's project director at the International Crisis Group.
If activist groups are willing and able to carry out attacks it could be that an irg grip on domestic security.
The country is half democracy, half theocracy. Iran is classed as "authoritarian" and ranked 154th out of 167 countries in a global democracy index compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit. It has become immune to the types of militant attacks that have occurred in other countries.
Saturday's incident and others like it might be a sign this is changing.
"The attack demonstrates Iran's vulnerability to the same pathologies that have torn the region apart," Vaez added. "Iran has been largely shielded from this issue so far.
Another possible outcome is Iran shifting further from its relatively moderate reformists to religious hardline nationalists.
The current president is Hassan Rouhani, who represents the moderates and oversaw the Iran nuclear deal being signed in 2015.
Some analysts say that the attacks on the one on Saturday boost support for the Revolutionary Guards. They had gained leverage after Trump pulled out of the nuclear deal, telling the Iranian public it was proof the U.S. could not be trusted.
On Monday, the crowds on the streets of the assault of Saturday's assault, many chanting "Death to Israel and America." Twelve members of the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, were among the 25 people killed.
Though he was vague, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei implied the culprits were backed by the U.S. and other Gulf states.
"Based on reports, this cowardly act has been done by people who have come to help when they are trapped in Syria and Iraq, and are paid by Saudi Arabia and the UAE," Khamenei said on his official website.
Nikki Haley, the U.S. ambassador to the U.N., pushed back, saying Iran should "look in the mirror" for the causes of the attack.
In an interview with NBC News on Monday, Rouhani condemned Haley's comments.
"Yesterday, one of the American officials clearly and openly supported these terrorists, and said that it should take place in Iran," he said. "If this is indeed so, how do we apply the same logic to the terrorist attacks of September 11?"
The opponents of the regime might see opportunity in Iran, but they do not necessarily want to succeed.
"The majority of the IRGC are regular, often young, rank-and-file conscripts who most citizens will report to and commiserate with," said Bilal Baloch, a non-resident fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute, Johns Hopkins University School of International Studies.
He said this might mean "you actually end up having a rally-around-the-flag effect domestically." So the Iranian people are not likely to turn against the regime.
Go agreed. "The Ahvaz attack … could also play in the Iranian leaders' favor," he said. "Propagating a mentality could help change the subject domestically, from nationalism to rallying around the flag."
