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It is clear that President Donald Trump blames the problems of the Middle East. Iran's "corrupt dictatorship", he told the UN General Assembly on September 25, "is causing chaos, death and upheaval" in the region. It has benefited from the economic spinoffs of its agreement with America and other world powers, which has hindered the Iranian nuclear program in exchange for sanctions, to increase military spending and support terrorism. His administration took America out of the deal in May and launched "a campaign of economic pressure to deprive the regime of the funds it needs to advance its bloody agenda."
Iran has responded, as usual, with challenge. Hassan Rouhani, his president (photo), insisted that he would not meet with Mr. Trump, denounced his "xenophobic tendencies resembling a Nazi disposition" and predicted victory over America. "The end of this war will be sweeter than the end of the eight-year war," said Rouhani, referring to Iran's war with Iraq in the 1980s, which left 600,000 dead. Iranian. Although considered a pragmatist, he is very similar to Iran's supporters, who opposed his nuclear deal and see no room for compromise with America.
Mr. Trump is not the only one to challenge the plan. Several gunmen killed at least 25 people, including 12 members of the Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the regime's praetor, during a military parade in Ahvaz, a town in southwestern Khuzestan, on September 22. . Two different groups claimed responsibility. The first was a local Arab separatist group, the Arab struggle Movement for the liberation of Ahvaz. But the Islamic State group, which stormed the Iranian parliament in Tehran a year ago, then quickly claimed responsibility for the attack, perhaps lying to strengthen its status. The regime, quickly and without hard evidence, has blamed America and its regional "puppets" – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Israel.
Iranian officials are fond of conspiracy theories, but it's not hard to see why they suspect strangers. Khuzestan is home to some 2 million Arabs (most Iranians are Persians). In recent years, Arab broadcasters have stepped up coverage of Iran's minorities, strongly supporting Arabs "under the occupation of Persian forces". Bahrain went so far as to name one of its streets "Arabian Ahvaz Avenue". One of the groups that claimed responsibility for the attack did it through Iran International, a Britain-based TV channel funded by Saudi investors. Last year, Muhammad bin Salman, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and de facto leader, promised to take the fight of his country "inside Iran".
In the eyes of Iran, this Arab offensive is part of a larger and more threatening front. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have put aside their differences with Israel in order to counter Iran, a common enemy. Meanwhile, the White House is now full of officials who have spent much of their careers demanding a regime change in Iran. Some prominent members of Mr. Trump's team supported Mujahideen-e-Khalq, a dissident cult group that until recently was considered a terrorist organization in Europe and America, and even provoked disgust among Iranians. reformists. Rudy Giuliani, Donald Trump's lawyer, took the group's money; John Bolton, Trump's national security advisor, hailed him as Iran's "viable opposition". On September 23, an illegal group of former US officials warned that Iran was forced to choose between "capitulation or war".
Iran's siege is likely to worsen. On November 4, America will impose new sanctions on the Iranian oil industry. As a result, Japan, South Korea, Sri Lanka and European countries are planning to reduce Iran's oil imports. America could offer cheap oil from its own reserves to entice India to follow. Although European states continue to respect the nuclear deal, some have left Iran to turn against the wind. A French state bank has abandoned its plans to finance exports to Iran, while the French government has limited diplomatic trips to Iran and suspended the appointment of a new ambassador. Iran is seeking help from Russia and China. But Russia has happily filled the void left by Iran in the oil market, while China is focusing on its trade war with America.
The government's focus on foreign conspiracies diverts attention away from domestic issues. Khuzestan holds the vast majority of the country's oil reserves, but it is poor and neglected. The Arabs say they are kept out of the local government and that the IRGC steals water from the area as well as its oil. A plethora of dams have diverted the rivers that flowed to the gulf from the center of Iran, turning Khuzestan into a bowl of dust. The protests were brutally repressed. Groups swearing to "free" Ahvaz claim to sabotage pipelines and shoot officials.
The discomfort is at the country level. The currency of Iran, the rial, collapsed last year. The poor, long the support base of the regime, must accumulate cans. Civil servants are increasingly corrupt to offset the decline in the value of their wages. Foreign businessmen, who flocked to Iran after the nuclear deal, are gone. This year's entry to the French school in Tehran has been reduced from 350 to 150. Many Iranians also want to go out. The application for a work visa at the German consulate is such that candidates have to wait two years for an interview.
Years of sanctions have led Iran to develop a "resistance economy", which is diverse and in many areas self-sustaining. Base prices rose, but by far less than if Iran depended on imports. The cynics note that although the fall of capital makes people poorer, it makes the government stronger, since Iran derives its oil revenues in foreign currency. Its reserves can survive another two years to Mr. Trump, says Mr. Rouhani. But suffering Iranians may pose a greater threat to the regime.
