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Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi is seen during the first session of Iraq's new parliament in Baghdad, Iraq, on September 3, 2018. (Reuters)
Tamer El-Ghobashy
A Middle East reporter on Iraqi politics, security and the fight against the Islamic State
BASRA, Iraq – The violent protests in this oil city have dealt a critical political coup to pro-American Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, putting an end to his bid for a second term, with allies and opponents blaming him for the unrest.
Abadi went to Basra on Monday after a week of protests, killing at least 15 people and government offices, the political party headquarters and the Iranian consulate in soot ruins. He discovered that a fragile calm had returned to the city this weekend, but that his political future had become much more uncertain.
The demonstrators had expressed frustration with the Iraqi political class, chanting slogans targeting both the government, parties and militias aligned with Iran. But opponents of Abadi for the post of prime minister have foiled it, seizing the public's anger to call it an impossible choice.
The United States, which has cultivated few alternatives to the leadership of Abadi, now finds itself with little influence on the shape of the new Iraqi government, analysts said.
On Monday, the top Iraqi Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, said in a statement that the crisis in Basra underscored the need for a new approach to the myriad problems that Iraq is facing and that it has not been. he would not support anyone for the post of prime minister. served in a leadership position.
Politicians in the first two places in the May elections in Iraq on Saturday called Abadi to resign following a controversial parliamentary session in which the prime minister disputed the governor of Basra.
"Abadi has no chance at the moment," said a person close to negotiations for the next prime minister, under the guise of anonymity to discuss sensitive discussions.
The two clashes of the Iraqi clergy and ascending political coalitions represent an unprecedented reprimand of Abadi, who had won US support for a second term after leading his country to victory over the Islamic State and an economic crisis caused by the fall in oil prices.
"Now his reelection is dead, and the US does not have good options after trying to get him re-elected," said Jordanian-based analyst Kirk Sowell, who publishes the Inside Iraqi newsletter. Politics.
The highest US envoy to Iraq, Brett McGurk, recently went to Iraq to rally Abrams' support among Sunnis and Kurds to build a parliamentary majority in his favor.
Sowell noted that Abadi had already made a haemorrhage of support before the protest movement in Basra exploded into large-scale riots last week. He had made a difficult pact with the nationalist cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, whose party had won the most seats in the May elections, but the lawmakers who had won the Abadi ticket started to take off these days. last weeks.
Sadr himself abandoned Abadi on Saturday, at the end of an urgent parliamentary session called by Sadr to discuss the crisis in Basra. Abadi was shaken by heavy criticism during the hearing, saying at one time angrily to the governor of Basra – a member of his own party – leaving the session.
The session has an immediate impact. Sadr's party called Abadi to resign, along with the prime rival Prime Minister, a coalition comprising pro-Iranian Shiite militia leader Hadi al-Amiri and former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
Sadr, Amiri and Maliki share hostility to US influence in the country, but they differ sharply on Iran's role in Iraq. Although Sadr has cordial ties with Tehran, he has also criticized Iran's involvement in Iraq and elsewhere in the region, particularly in Syria. Amiri and Maliki, on the other hand, are close to Iran and see it as a bulwark against US interests in Iraq.
But their joint opposition to Abadi does not mean they are likely to enter a new ruling coalition, said the person involved in the negotiations. Each party is seeking to remove legislators from the Abadi ticket while seeking the support of small Shia, Sunni and Kurdish blocs.
Reflecting the diminished status of Abadi, protesters took to the streets Monday night after his talks with provincial officials and civil society figures to demand that he leave Basra.
Read more
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