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TThe resignation of Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman following the ceasefire with the Palestinians in Gaza has plunged Israeli politics into a real turmoil.
According to the analysis of the situation that you read, you might be tempted to see this as a good or a bad thing. Bernard, in Moon of Alabama, sees a weakened prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, forced to sue for peace after the new Gaza intervention. From MoA:
The short conflict has shown that:
- Israel is discouraged. He does not want to launch another war against Gaza.
- The siege of Gaza by Israel, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority under Mahmoud Abbas has failed. The cost of the siege's reputation has become too high after Israel killed some 160 Palestinians during weekly demonstrations along the demarcation barrier. It was supposed to allow Qatar's diesel fuel and money to reach Gaza.
- The siege has not prevented Islamic Jihad, Hamas and other groups from acquiring more missiles and new capabilities.
- Palestinians in Gaza are united. Resistance against occupation is alive and well.
This leaves Netanyahu struggling to prevent early elections and the rise of even harder Naftali Bennett, who has threatened to launch Bibi's coalition without being appointed defense minister, replacing Lieberman.
The MdA considers Netanyahu in a very precarious position, what it is and will be obliged to appease Bennett or risk an early election that could see his government fall.
And it is on this point that Whitney Webb of Mintpressnews takes another view, that this is not a political victory for Gaza, as the Palestinians think. Since Bennett will intensify the brutality to include all residents of Gaza, including children.
With Lieberman's party already withdrawing from the Israeli far-right coalition, Netanyahu will likely capitulate on Bennett's demands to stabilize the current government and avoid dissolving the Knesset and early elections. Thus, the current instability that the Likud-led coalition is facing now seems destined to a skyrocket of the right, whether by early elections or Netanyahu-led efforts to appease the other right-wing parties. prevent them from defecting.
Other influential political figures within Jewish Home, such as Uri Ariel, also called for Bennett's appointment. Ariel told the Israeli media Arutz Sheva:
Prime Minister Netanyahu should appoint Minister Bennett to the position of Minister of Defense and this government could continue to function. I think there is a benefit in terms of stability, of course assuming that Bennett will bring a much better security policy.
Of course, more than one person would like to be Defense Minister, but the most appropriate is Minister Bennett, to whom the Prime Minister had promised the portfolio in the past, and this promise has not been honored. "
Over the past year, Bennett has repeatedly accused Lieberman of being "restrained and weak" as the defense minister, particularly with regard to his approach to the great return to Gaza. Accusing Lieberman of "weakness" is particularly shocking given that the Lieberman-led Israeli army repeatedly used deadly force to suppress protests in Gaza, killing over 200 unarmed Palestinians – including children, doctors and journalists – and injuring more than 22,000.
As bad as Bibi and Lieberman are / were Bennett makes them look like Quakers.
The situation in Israel is therefore similar to that prevailing in Russia for the American anti-Russian types. If you think Vladimir Putin is a dictator and a right-wing fanatic (which he is not), then you do not understand what is behind him.
In other words, pay attention to what you want – a change of diet – because you could get it … well and hard, to quote Mencken.
Indeed, weakened figures like these give power to hyper nationalists who 1) are eager to prove that their opponent was a jerk and 2) have not proven themselves in a real confrontation. So they are unpredictable and likely to go half armed.
For all his faults, Netanyahu is at least a combat test and can be reasoned to a certain extent.
However, I think Webb exaggerates the danger for the Palestinians here. Israel is in a precarious position. Too many people have turned against them and their management of this situation.
And this loss of reputation puts Netanyahu in the difficult situation in which he finds himself. He knows what will happen if Bennett is responsible for the Israel Defense Forces. It will be the best recruiting engine for anti-Israeli sentiment around the world, but especially here in the United States.
And that's something he can not have.
In general, Israel's influence on American politics has already reached its peak with the rise of the baby boomers' political power. As the generational change occurs, more and more Generation X and Millennial members who have had the courage to subordinate American foreign policy to the vagaries of Israel will gain influence over American politics.
This is not a judgment, it is a sober observation.
So if Bennett takes control of the IDF and takes things to eleven compared to Palestinians in Gaza, it will cost Donald Trump politically at home and Israel's best ally in the White House for two decades will be lost.
With the Saudis, they must now face international criticism of their behavior and can no longer rely on a Western media complacent (and paid) to turn the story in their favor.
And Trump & Kushner's Netanyahu project, as recently described by Alistair Crooke, was a disaster for all concerned, especially the people he was supposed to help – the Saudis and Israelis.
And all of Trump's enemies, even those who are also pro-Israel, will have inflamed him for our relations with these two countries.
They both over-played their hands thinking that Trump would support everything they played.
He played the game of Iran, Russia and Hezbollah, continuing to think that the uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad could be successful. What Obama thought was a quagmire for the Russians turned out to be a quagmire for the US / Israel / Saudi coalition.
That's why Trump and his advisors pushed all-in on regime change in Iran. Netanyahu is right to say that Iran can and will continue to provide the weapons needed to win a long-term victory over Israel.
If Russia's S-300s and air defense systems meet the advertised criteria, Bennett will put an end to the myth of Israeli air superiority after Israel loses some F-16s when it must inevitably show power.
Unfortunately for Israel, this myth is one of the few things to keep things relatively calm.
Iran will find its way through sanctions. Netanyahu did not have many other options and the neo-conservatives of D.C. really believe it will be different this time around. But that will not be the case.
In fact, if you do not think that Iran and Russia have not planned the same scenario, you are as helpless as those who think that getting rid of Putin would make Russia more flexible.
Oh yes, they are the same people.
The bright side is that now that Bibi is on the ice in the Knesset, the best way forward for Israel and Trump is to come to the negotiating table as an intellectual broker to end the conflict in Syria . occurred.
This will result in the resignation of Iran, otherwise Israel's position in the region will continue to erode.
Putin was forced by his intransigent to finally protect Russian and Syrian interests directly from Israeli harassment. And that put us on the path we are on today. The best offer from Trout and Netanyahu of Putin and Assad is on the table today, not next year or 2020.
Provided, of course, that one or the other or both survive.
