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Jason Garrett and Bill O. Brien participated in a training session for Sunday Night Football, and Jason Garrett emerged victorious … in the race to take the spotlight. Despite O'Brien's best efforts, he scored three goals of 21 yards or less, then a time out at the 3rd and 15th positions for not having to play a decisive game.
Garrett's last stroke of genius came when he hit the 4th and 1st of the 43 Texans in the first possession of overtime at 5:40 of the end. I will note that it was NOT the same situation as Frank Reich, who had decided not to play for the tie last week. The distance was shorter and the ball was on the side of the Texans.
In punting, Garrett conceded a chance to win for fear of losing, but put his team in a situation where they could lose their death suddenly. They were neglected to win the match once he made that decision. Just have a mental experience. What would be the chances of converting the 4th and 1st players to make a bad move?
The answer is about 25%, given the field position and the game situation. The actual conversion rate for the 4th and 1st (non-red zone situations) is 69.8% on the last three years.
Yes, Dallas is less likely to drop one point per kick than give the ball to Houston around 43, but a point is not automatic. On the basis of overtime holdings, the chances of a Houston score in the next 20 years are around 27%, and 41% closer to the 43. At the same time, Dallas is almost certainly scoring points they convert this fourth result. Thirteen of the 15 teams in the last decade have started additional possession between the 45 and 35 registered opponents (4 touchdowns and 9 shots). Dallas could win, and even if they opted for a placement, they would be a favorite to win the game, as less than half of the teams were responding to a point placement and if Houston responded with a goal, Dallas would again a favorite with possession and sudden death.
Based on the recent historical record of overtime, I believe that the Dallas Cowboys were a 76% favorite to win if they converted the fourth try, a 31% favorite if they failed and 42% if they failed. lost. Yes, the failure is worse than the yard, but the huge difference in chances of winning by placing the ball at the limit of the range of points offsets it.
Thus, using the conversion figures of 70% at 4th and 1st places, the overall chances of winning at Dallas were 62% while trying the shot (without knowing the result) and 42% while doing a punting.
This is a MASSIVE mistake in the strategy. An error of 20%. Still, I doubt that anyone else qualifies this decision as more stupid this year, as people did with Frank Reich last week (Reich's decision might have been a clear chance to win from 2 to 3% (where a tie is half a match).
That's how you end up with two playoff appearances in what now looks like eight seasons in the NFL.
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