"Just like Trump": Bolsonaro tops Brazil presidential race with right-wing populist speech

São Paulo, Brazil – For years, Brazil has welcomed its image as a left-wing post-racial society. Now Jair Bolsonaro – a far-right outsider who says "love" President Trump – has come to the forefront of Sunday's presidential elections, sharply separating the largest country in Latin America.

According to Bolsonaro, to deal with rampant crime, the police should reprimand more criminals. "A gay son is the result of a lack of beatings," he once joked, insisting that homosexuality should not be discussed in elementary schools.

He has already said that women – because they get pregnant – deserve a lower wage than men. He called some fat and lazy minorities.

Like Trump, he uses social media to reach legions of loyal followers. His gatherings have become outlets for white men shaken by social and economic changes. He vowed to drain the capital's marsh and make Brazil "formidable".

"This is going to be fine," said Eduardo Bolsonaro, the 34-year-old leader's son, as he envisioned his father's presidency at a rally last week. "It will be like Trump in the United States."

As this country of 208 million people goes to the polls Sunday, Brazil is a country polarized and filled with anxiety. The economy beats the wing. Broad layers of his political class are contaminated by corruption. The homicide rate has reached epic highs.

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Bolsonaro, 63, made progress with a first campaign in Brazil that attacks the mainstream press while making headlines with hard talk and his own alternative facts. Its popularity, according to some, reflects the globalization of anti-globalization and the rise of Western candidates seeking to exploit the racial and social fault lines.

In Europe and the United States, far-right and populist movements have targeted their anger against immigrants and minorities. In Brazil, the upper-middle class, mostly white, felt threatened by the rise of a lower, mostly black, middle class, whose incomes grew faster than those of the largest segment of society. rich for more than a decade of rule of the Left Workers Party 2003. During these years, programs similar to those of positive action have sent for the first time to a college of many black Brazilians.

However, the stagnant economy, all segments of society suffer and passionate speeches of Bolsonaro touch a raw nerve. Its rallies attract not only ultraconservatives dressed in camouflage pants and skull t-shirts, but also angry professionals who feel they have lost ground.

"Today, if you are a white man, heterosexual and destitute, you must be punished," said Marcio Ferraz, a 47-year-old doctor in Sao Paulo, who attended a rally in Bolsonaro on Sunday. "We have no social debt to blacks. We must be responsible for ourselves. "

Politics of fear

Yet, like Trump in 2016, Bolsonaro is gaining the support of many voters who turn to him despite his remarks about minorities and women, not because of them. His commitment to fighting crime and political corruption and preventing the return of a leftist government resonates with millions of people who see him as the last and the best chance for maintaining order. He managed to present himself as a stranger despite his 27 years of legislature in Congress.

In recent months, Bolsonaro has sought to tone down his most controversial rhetoric, praising Brazil's cultural diversity in a tweet on Thursday and softening its stance on gender inequality, in what analysts see as an attempt to increase his power of election.

"He is not the savior of the country, but he is the best option to defeat the Communists of the Workers' Party," said Danilo Monato, a 30-year-old black physical education teacher who attended the recent Bolsonaro rally. .

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Polls show that Trump is desperately unpopular in many Latin America. But Bolsonaro and his supporters – who sometimes wear American flags at rallies – see the US president as a political touchstone.

The similarities between Bolsonaro and Trump are "conscious and deliberate," said Guilherme Casarões, a professor of comparative politics at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, a university in Sao Paulo. "Five years ago he was just another congressman with anti-gay views. Now, Bolsonaro, like Trump, has become a larger than life character. "

"Bolsonaro uses well-crafted rhetoric – his slogan is" Brazil foremost and God foremost ". He has been able to reach different groups of voters who feel abandoned by the political class. They are now blind to the negative things that he says and does and tend to neglect any aspect that speaks against their candidate. "

Bolsonaro has adopted the politics of fear. He demonized his left-wing opponents as corrupt and incompetent radicals and his right-wing enemies as weak centrists unable to "firmly" represent the conservative cause.

The conspiracy theories rule his world: if he loses, it will only be because of a plot to rob him of the presidency, he said.

"I will not accept an election result that is not my own victory," Bolsonaro said during a televised interview last month.

His speech on the return of family values ​​has been the music of the ears of conservative Catholics and evangelicals, even though he is now on his third wife. After an unsuccessful assassination attempt last month – a man stabbed Bolsonaro in the abdomen at a rally – some Brazilians even tweeted Bible verses and proclaimed his survival as a divine sign.

The shadow of Lula

Like Trump, Bolsonaro was initially underestimated by Brazilian experts, who mocked his candidacy. They do not laugh anymore. Former captain of the army whose second is a retired general, Bolsonaro has praised the 21 years of right-wing military dictatorship that ruled Brazil until 1985. Where he wins and lies unable to assemble the majority in Congress, some observers fear that he will not support a military intervention and will grab authoritarian powers.

Bolsonaro rejected these concerns. "If one day the army comes to power, it will be by a vote," he said at a demonstration in June.

Polls show that Bolsonaro received support of about 31 percent, compared with 21 percent for Fernando Haddad, the candidate representing the Workers' Party. In the Brazilian electoral system, a candidate needs more than 50% of the votes to win – a figure that none of the 13 candidates running should reach Sunday. That would establish a second round on October 28 between the two best players, in which Bolsonaro would probably be in a fight with Haddad.

Part of Haddad's problem is his role as deputy to former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Lula, as widely known here, was banned from the race after being jailed for 12 years for alleged involvement in a massive corruption scandal involving bribes in construction companies.

Haddad met with investment bankers and is considered more moderate than most members of his party, which did not attract him to more militant leftists. Nevertheless, investors are worried that he will not be ready to adopt crucial reforms of the country's pension system to avoid a financial crisis. Some voters also fear that Haddad – whose slogan is "Lula is Haddad" – adopts a more radical policy as president if Lula wants it.

Meanwhile, Bolsonaro's chances of victory stoke the Liberals' fears, here and abroad, turning Brazil's election into a globally-viewed race. Personalities such as Madonna, Cher and British actor Stephen Fry have denounced Bolsonaro. In Brazil, social movements against him have emerged, including a movement involving hundreds of thousands of tweets under the hashtag #elenao, or #NotHim. Last weekend, tens of thousands of women, blacks, gays and indigenous activists joined anti-Bolsonaro protests.

Many people here argue that Bolsonaro's inflammatory rhetoric encourages others to use hate speech, introducing racism and homophobia into traditional dialogue. On Saturday, César Augusto da Silva, a homosexual black illustrator from Sao Paulo, attended a rally with a sign around his neck saying "Beware, Bolsonaro kills gays" – a reference to homophobic singing among Bolsonaro supporters during A game of football game that has recently become viral on social media.

"If we stay silent, it will aggravate discrimination," he said. "I am here to be able to say one day to my children that I have tried."

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