[ad_1]
Brett Kavanaugh was already one of the most unpopular candidates of the Supreme Court in recent history, and although we do not have many polls since the accusation of Christine Blasey Ford, Stanford professor, that he sexually abused when they were in high school, The investigations we conducted suggest that the allegations made him more unpopular.
Four organizations conducted surveys before and after Ford made a public appearance on September 16. Two NBC News / Wall Street Journal polls reveal a significant drop in Kavanaugh's net support. Just like the Ipsos poll. Morning Consult has found a small hollow. And Kavanaugh actually won a few percentage points in the net support according to two HuffPost / YouGov surveys.
On average, all before and after results, Kavanaugh's net support decreased by about 4 percentage points. But it's a small enough change that we can not rule out the possibility that it's just statistical noise.
The first signs that Kavanaugh's popularity has diminished
Brett Kavanaugh's approval polls were conducted before and after Sept. 16, when the Washington Post published Christine Blasey Ford's allegations about sexual assault.
| Net Support | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sounder | Before | After | Change |
| NBC / WSJ | 4 | -4 | -8 |
| Morning consultation | 5 | +1 | -4 |
| HuffPost / YouGov | -6 | -4 | 2 |
| Ipsos | -3 | -9 | -6 |
So what can we say with more confidence? First, Americans are divided on Kavanaugh along partisan lines. In the HuffPost / YouGov survey in early September, 68 percent of Republicans approved Trump's decision to name Kavanaugh, compared with only 7 percent of Democrats. In this week's HuffPost / YouGov survey, 69% of Republicans and 8% of Democrats approved.
Secondly, a large constituency does not have an opinion on Kavanaugh's appointment – more than a quarter according to the NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll, and that has not really changed from there a month. HuffPost also found that there was virtually no change in the number of people who reported paying attention to the confirmation, before and after the publication of Ford's allegations. This may be due in part to the fact that people are not up to it. But this leaves some room for public opinion on Kavanaugh depending on the progress of the confirmation process.
If not, there are not many clear trends in the survey data before and after the claims. But polls show some signs of division between the sexes. Women seem to have become more negative towards Kavanaugh after the allegations than they were before, according to polls that published sex-disaggregated results. Her net approval dropped 10 points among women between the two HuffPost polls and 1-point at the Morning Consult. Among men, Kavanaugh's net approval increased by 12 points in HuffPost / YouGov polls, but by 6 points in Morning Consult polls.
The big question is whether these figures will remain stable or whether they could change if Ford and Kavanaugh publicly testified on Capitol Hill, as is currently expected. Such testimony is likely to attract massive media coverage. With many Americans still undecided about Kavanaugh, public opinion could still rock significantly.
Source link
