Kavanaugh's accuser made him move – now the Republicans have to choose

"Dr. Ford's testimony would reflect his personal knowledge and the memory of events," he said. "Nothing the FBI or any other investigator would have any bearing on what Dr. Ford says to the committee, so there's no reason to delay further."

Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee, another Republican who had wanted to hear Ford before voting, tweeted: "The Republicans have reached out in good faith, if we do not hear both sides on Monday, let's vote."

And President Donald Trump, adding to the GOP 's dynamism behind Kavanaugh, made it clear in a tweet before midnight that it was time to go ahead and accused Democrats of exploiting it. Ford's requests for political reasons.

"The Supreme Court is one of the main reasons why I was elected president.I hope Republican voters and others observe and study the Democrats' logbook," he tweeted.

A quick confirmation vote would satisfy Republicans who see in its eleventh hour a challenge to Kavanaugh's candidacy as a Democratic delaying tactic, and that would please the militant base of the party that defends a conservative majority in the Supreme Court.

Yet, this could expose the GOP to claims that it would not be willing to engage in a fair process to honor a woman's accusations against a powerful man – a risky route in the political climate of the era. #MeToo. Such a plan could also be more damaging to Republicans in mid-term elections in which they are already very unpopular with voters.

But this path would delay Kavanaugh's confirmation, perhaps for weeks, and leave open the possibility that he can be completely blocked. It could also frustrate Trump, who is trying not to show his anger on such a politically sensitive issue.

A battle for leverage

Indeed, the Ford and Senate Republicans are engaged in a battle for influence and morale, a drama that sums up many of the power and gender politics that rocked the United States during the Trump administration.

In her letter, Ford's lawyers said she had already faced the kind of reproach she feared when she was surprised to have made anonymous statements against Kavanaugh in July. In fact, his life was "turned upside down," they said.

The letter stated that Ford was ready to work with Grassley staff on "reasonable steps" to solve the problem.

"No legitimate investigation is going to take place by Monday," she said. "It's going to take time, there should not be a hurry to an audience here."

This position is unacceptable to at least one key Republican Senator on the Judiciary Committee, Orrin Hatch of Utah.

"President @ChuckGrassley has proposed to our committee to approve the offer of Dr. Ford's lawyer on television yesterday for his client to testify before the Judiciary Committee," Hatch wrote in a tweet. .

"We should proceed as planned."

Carrie Severino, senior counsel at the Judicial Crisis Network, argued that Ford's letter was another example of attempts by the Democratic Party to block Kavanaugh's appointment.

"I think what we've seen here is a lagging pattern, it seems like a new shift in goals," Severino told CNN's Anderson Cooper.

"Senator Grassley has gone out of his way to offer everything he wants."

What happens next?

Republicans on Capitol Hill must now decide how things will go before Monday and whether to go ahead without Ford, perhaps to take Kavanaugh's testimony that he said he wanted to give.

Some Republicans said it was the course that they preferred.

"She has a chance to come – we are leading the committee, not her lawyer, not the Democrats," said Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina on Tuesday.

Senator John Cornyn of Texas said, even before Ford's move, that it was "not really able to create conditions."

The problem for Republicans is that such a speech is likely to be seen as an act of intimidation by powerful men of a woman who makes serious accusations – the kind of story that has been central to #MeToo's awakening. .

But if Graham, Cornyn and Corker succeed, Kavanaugh could be on the way – if the narrow majority of the GOP stays firm.

The key reaction could come from Arizona senator Jeff Flake, who said he would not vote to confirm Kavanaugh without hearing Ford. It was not clear how his new position could change that.

Sens Republicans, Susan Collins of Maine, and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska are also key to Kavanaugh's hopes of confirmation. They will therefore have a considerable influence on how the GOP leadership will go from here.

Yet Republicans will also listen to their base. A conservative supreme court is vitally important for GOP activists – and for the president – who could decide to go forward even at the risk of exacerbating the damage at the time. mid-term elections.

After choosing Trump as president, Republican voters also showed that they were ready to pursue valuable ideological goals of sexual harassment. After all, many women have accused Trump of sexual misconduct despite his denials.

A middle ground would be for the GOP to ask the president to launch an FBI investigation or a Kavanaugh background check to examine Ford's allegations.

A compromise could see a committee inquiry rather than an investigation by the FBI. The banks said it could be an option but said it should be run by "impartial non-partisan investigators".

Kavanaugh also has a choice – with his masters at the White House. After all, Ford has stated that it is willing to submit to the scrutiny of an FBI investigation – not to a measure usually taken by a person who does not trust his story. Is Kavanaugh willing to expose himself to the same standard?

In addition, he might consider the implications for his credibility and his reputation of being high in the Supreme Court – where he will likely have to deal with consecutive cases concerning women's health, including abortion – without that Ford's allegations are resolved.

Until now, there has been no call to rethink his candidacy. But a prolonged stalemate could prompt some Conservatives to quietly talk about the possibility of confirming another strong conservative, perhaps female, on Trump's list.

The Democrats quickly rallied to Ford on Tuesday night, potentially validating claims that they are exploiting the situation for political ends.

There were quick reactions from Senator Kamala Harris of California, a potential presidential candidate in 2020, and 2016 candidate Hillary Clinton.

Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer, a New York Democrat, said in a statement that "Republicans and the White House should drop their inexplicable opposition to an FBI investigation, authorize all the facts."

In a purely political sense, Democrats are in a strong position, even if the final victory is Trump's, given the likelihood of a generational conservative majority on the ground.

If Republicans put pressure and Kavanaugh is confirmed despite allegations, Democrats have a problem that will ignite the Liberal base in November. If they manage to create a delay, there is just a chance that they can slow down its momentum and thwart Trump's political priority.