Kim Jong-un as Young Gorbachev in North Korea – Southern Government Counselor, RT – Sophie Co


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While a second meeting between US and North Korean leaders is looming on the horizon, questions remain: will North Korea finally give up its nuclear weapons? Or are we going to be pushed into another tension tower? We spoke to Jae-Young Lee, president of the Korea Institute for International Economic Policies.

Sophie Shevardnadze:Mr. Lee, thank you for being with us today. Nice to have you. Recently, the North Korean leader wrote a warm letter to President Trump and we now see that a second meeting could be scheduled. Can we expect tangible results?

Jae-Young Lee: Yes, there could soon be a new summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un. And I think this time it will be a more productive meeting and we can expect tangible results. Of course, their views on the denuclearization of North Korea are somewhat different at this stage. America says, "Denuclearization first." While North Korea thinks we need to end the war and then move on. I think that the two leaders are choosing the peaceful way and, if necessary, they will come to a solution to the nuclear problem. And I hope that will happen.

SS: But you see, not so long ago, they were seriously asking American television if the United States should bomb North Korea. So, they were really on the brink of war. And now, they are about to meet again for the second time. Does this mean that the worst is over? What do you think?

JL: Yes, last year, everyone was worried that a war on the Korean peninsula would be inevitable. But now the situation has changed dramatically. There is a movement towards peace. Last year, we would not have dreamed of that. Of course, it will take time, but I think that the United States and North Korea will gradually solve the nuclear problem on the Korean peninsula.

SS: We saw how President Trump acted towards the North Korean leader. He wrote bad things on Twitter, resorted to insults, sent a message and then called back the navy. And now, America and North Korea have unprecedented relationships. When Trump behaved this way, he was criticized for acting so recklessly. But now, I suppose, it turns out that he did everything correctly?

JL: Yes, things have stabilized to a certain extent and I think they are good choices. Trump may have played a trick for North Korea to participate in the dialogue. But the situation in North Korea has also changed. Its leader Kim Jong-un is like a young Gorbachev. His vision is different from that of his predecessors. Americans think that the Soviet Union fell because of US sanctions, but that's not true. And we see the same situation now. Americans think that sanctions against North Korea force Koreans to speak. But that's just one of the factors. Now, the situation in North Korea is a little different. Kim Jong-un has a different vision and is ready for disarmament.

SS: Do you know what I think? I think that he may have just gone over everyone. First of all, he has terrorized the world with nuclear weapons, presenting the worst scenario, and he takes the opportunity to say, "OK, I will not use nuclear weapons, let's be friends."

JL: Compared to the United States and other countries, North Korea is small. They can not deceive the whole world. If they have foiled or deceived the world, then we can not expect anything good out of it. I think that they understand that. Unlike previous leaders, Kim Jong-un wants a different result, which inspires hope.

SS: At the moment, Trump and the North Korean leader are exchanging jokes, but the South Korean leader is also playing his part. Relations between South Korea and North Korea are improving. What can we expect from this policy?

JL: The Moon Jae-in administration in South Korea is trying and will continue to try to engage the dialogue with North Korea. Even before the first summit between North Korea and the United States, we were doing something to make that happen. And now, Korea is also playing a major role. This is the connecting bridge. It is important that the United States and North Korea agree, right? And our government plays a very important role. This is how the current regime is different and we all see positive results.

SS: I remember the discussion on the next round of tough sanctions against North Korea, President Putin said the sanctions were not working, especially in the case of North Korea, because its inhabitants were not afraid difficulties. But why is North Korea making concessions now? We see him in his rhetoric – they say they're ready for denuclearization: "All right, we're ready to give up nuclear weapons."

JL: In fact, sanctions against North Korea are only one factor that has played a role in the current state of affairs; like when North Korea decided to talk to the United States and South Korea. When North Korea became a state, sanctions were immediately imposed. This is an important factor, but it's not the only one. But when the situation really worsened at the end of last year and it seemed that the war was inevitable, things suddenly began to change. South Korea has never stopped trying to talk to North Korea and the Pyeongchang Olympics have allowed us to progress. It was a good excuse and an opportunity to meet and talk. And the two countries agreed during these talks. Nor did the North Koreans miss this opportunity to speak to South Korea. And after the talks, South Korea signaled to the United States, China, Russia and Japan that progress had been made and that North Korea was ready to engage in a dialogue. And now, we're all seeing progress, which means it's not just the sanctions that made the difference. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has studied in the West and understands what is really important now. And the important thing is to be able to feed the nation, which will be impossible without dialogue, without peace and without nuclear disarmament. North Korea understands that it will not prosper without peace, for sure.

SS: And another thing, keep the diet alive. It was obvious to everyone that the North Korean leader needed nuclear weapons to support the current regime. This is the only guarantee of his security and the future of the regime. Now he says – again, these are just words for the moment – that he is ready to give up nuclear weapons. Does this mean that he has other warranties? Guarantees stronger than nuclear weapons?

JL: You know, when you die of hunger but you have the nuclear weapon, it is a road that leads nowhere and that could at first condemn North Korea. The current leader, Kim Jong-un, is young, has studied abroad, in a Western country, and understands Western culture. If you give up nuclear weapons, you can develop your country and your economy – that's what I hope, he thinks. But he needs guarantees that no one will interfere in his country's affairs, and if the international community and countries like the United States, Russia, China, and Japan offer such guarantees, it's all about it is possible that North Korea is breaking up. Kim Jong-un simply needs guarantees from the countries he trusts.

SS: Why would Seoul need the close relationship it now has with North Korea? What is the purpose of this policy and what about North Korea? Why would they need to get closer now?

JL: As you know, Korea values ​​peace and prosperity.

SS: It's a very diplomatic answer. Let me ask you a little differently. What does Seoul fear most: North Korean nuclear missiles or a war to destroy North Korean nuclear missiles? What are you afraid of?

JL: After the Korean War, Koreans have always felt threatened. Everyone is used to it, but everyone hopes that a real war is out of the question. But no less important – perhaps even the most important – is the economic aspect. From a humanitarian point of view, Korea's split into two parts, North and South, is a terrible thing, but on the economic side, it's a lot worse. Korea is stagnating now. The population is decreasing, young people have to feed the elderly and earn more. We need new opportunities and more space to develop our economy. It would be great if such opportunities opened up thanks to North Korea. We could further explore the Eurasian markets, including Russia. We could diversify our economy on the basis of the peace and prosperity of the Korean peninsula and strengthen our ties with ASEAN and India, with the so-called southern regions. All this is very important to us. That is why our current government and our people want a peaceful resolution of the nuclear issue and closer ties with North Korea.

SS: D & # 39; agreement. Do you think Trump could make some concessions in response to Kim's actions? Let's stop military exercises near the North Korean borders? Can we expect something like this?

JL: Well, this is happening already. The US military has suspended its military exercises with South Korea. They did it because North Korea stopped its nuclear tests and started dismantling some of its missile launch sites. Then came the mutual concessions. These are the positive results of the United States-North Korea summit. But it will not take one, two, or even five, six or seven peaks to avoid going back to the previous situation.

SS: Go back to the right. What role do you think Russia could play in this regard? According to Seoul, what can Russia do to normalize the situation?

JL: As you know, the status quo with respect to the denuclearization of North Korea stems from the differences between the United States and North Korea. Russia must play an even more active role in the Korean peninsula strategically. For example, this can be achieved through trilateral cooperation between North Korea, South Korea and Russia. I think North Korea will be ready for denuclearization very soon. For example, there might be an agreement on certain weapons and nuclear materials to take to Russia and dispose of them here. Then, on the basis of mutual trust, the United States and Russia could help North Korea in the energy sector, for example by building a gas pipeline and railways. With that, North Korea would open up a little more to the world. This is how we could solve this problem as well. In this way, US-Russian relations would improve. I mean, this possible cooperation will avoid imposing sanctions.

SS: You know what else I think? Could trade between Russia and South Korea facilitate closer ties between North and South? Geographically, this would involve transit through the North Korean territory, which would imply increased cooperation between Russia, South Korea and North Korea to develop trade.

JL: One of the main obstacles to the development of the Far East is instability on the Korean peninsula. As soon as peace reigns on the Korean peninsula, we would have incredible potential for mutually beneficial development, not only for the Far East but also for Northeast Asia. Russia wants to cooperate with the Asia-Pacific because it is the center of global economic growth. The Far East and North Korea will drive economic growth in the 21st century. Trade between Russia and ASEAN is growing and the Korean Peninsula is a gateway to the Asia-Pacific region. If peace prevails here, Russia will be able to have economically beneficial relations not only with the West, but also with the countries of the Asia-Pacific.

SS: We addressed this issue before the interview: with all these tensions between Russia and the West and the latest US and European sanctions, Russia turns to the east. Look at this forum, for example, it clearly shows that Russia is serious about this pivot. Does Seoul benefit? I do not know, maybe taking the place left by the Western partners of Russia?

JL: I am very happy that Russia is paying more attention to the East, including Korea. Korea was a partner of Russia, we also cooperated at sea. It would be nice to rebuild all that. We must absolutely strengthen our ties. I sincerely hope that we will meet several times in the future, here in Vladivostok, at the East Economic Forum that Russia has made possible. In ten years, I think Russia will be a real Asian country, not only geographically but also economically. That's what I think.

SS: At present, the United States is the closest partner to South Korea. Any country that is not in agreement with US foreign policy vis-à-vis Russia is strongly criticized by the United States and is under pressure to obtain it. For example, a number of European countries do not want to impose sanctions on Russia, but under pressure from the United States – since the EU itself is under US influence – they must obey and impose sanctions. Do not you fear that Washington, as such a close American partner, will not be allowed by Washington to become friends with Russia?

JL: You know, I think that one day the sanctions will disappear like snow under the sun. But this will take time. For your country, and for ourselves and for the global economy as a whole, the sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and the EU clearly have a detrimental effect. This is detrimental to cooperation efforts around the world. I think that one day the US-Russia relations will improve. When this moment finally arrives, we must be ready. We need to start laying the groundwork for that.

SS: But what I was asking was: are not you afraid that South Korea simply can not build closer ties with Russia?

JL: South Korea is a small country, but we are a sovereign country. We are not subjects of America, even if it is an important partner for us. We are independent of America in many ways. We have the right to choose our own destiny. For example, the size of our economy. Besides America and Japan, we would be happy to develop relations with Russia, with the Eurasian continent as a whole, with the ASEAN countries and with India. There is nothing wrong with that, is not it? No, I do not think we are American puppets. No, it is certainly not us.

SS: Some people are now talking about the possible denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, they say that North Korea could finally abandon its nuclear weapons and, eventually, sign a treaty with you. If this happens, will South Korea need US troops on the peninsula? Or are you going to say "So long, we do not need you anymore, now that the threat is gone"?

JL: Well, denuclearization and North Korea are not directly related to the presence of US troops in South Korea, but I do not think American forces will stay here forever. These two factors should not be perceived as related to each other. That's the way we see things. At the present time, our priority is denuclearization.

SS: As Donald Trump and Kim Jong-a build bridges, the ties between Washington and Beijing become tense. Could Pyongyang Take Advantage of the US-China Relationship Crisis? He could try to negotiate concessions by capitalizing on US-China tensions, for example …

JL: You know, China has a strong influence on North Korea. And America too. And Russia too. North Korea is very important to us. In order to solve the problem of the North Korean nuclear program, we will need the support of all parties, including major powers such as the United States, China, Russia and Japan. Without the help of these nations, we will not achieve complete denuclearization or bring peace and prosperity to the Korean peninsula. I say this because I want to stress how important Russia's role is in this whole process.

SS: I would like to ask you something. When North Korea and America had bad relations, America accused China and Beijing of manipulating North Korea. Now that relations between North Korea and the United States have improved, no one recognizes the role of Beijing nor thanks China for having, for example, ordered North Korea to improve its relations with the United States. In other words, when relations between North Korea and the United States are bad, it is China's fault. But if relations improve, then suddenly China has nothing to do with it …

JL: The trade war between China and the United States is intensifying, which is very unfortunate, as the lack of close cooperation between the two powers makes it impossible to resolve the North Korean issue.

SS: Trump is very aggressive right now with regard to Beijing, is not it? It takes unexpected and brutal measures against China. Economists are worried and markets are preparing for a new round in the tariff war. But what if all these threats do not differ from what Trump did with Kim in North Korea? Do you remember what he did? He continued to accumulate threats until the two leaders met and declared peace. And if he intends to do the same with China? He will continue to make threats until he makes a sudden U-turn towards diplomacy. He could…

JL: Well, the way I see things is a little different. Previously, under the Obama administration, the problem was that, from America's point of view, trade with China seemed unfair. It was like that that they saw him. But now, under Trump, there is a multitude of grievances with China's politics. It's not just about national security, it's about stealing technology, copyrights and American intellectual property, and so on. Nevertheless, the United States and China must negotiate and find a solution to this trade war. All of this is dragging on, and I think the fault lies with China. America is worried about the theft of its technology. That's what I think the most afraid of America. That's why there are tensions.

SS: There is one thing I do not understand. Are these two countries so contradictory that they prevent you from prospering? How serious are the current economic tensions between China and the United States? I mean really!

JL: Yes, unfortunately, they are real. Recently, the Korean Institute for International Economic Policy investigated how US sanctions against Chinese products affected the Korean economy. They found that the whole situation limited Korea's economic opportunities. So far, the effects have not been too severe, but if tensions continue to rise and if they persist for a while, this would become a threat to our economy and to the whole of the economy of the region.

SS: China is currently busy with its construction project of the century. I am talking about the new Silk Road project. They are building infrastructure throughout Eurasia. When will this megaproject be launched? Will China even care at this stage of some tariffs imposed by Trump?

JL: The Americans are watching this very closely. Right now, they have adopted a wait-and-see approach, they want to see what that leads to. The Eurasian continent – I mean Russia, China and Korea – needs a high-speed rail system. And if the United States invests with their capital and technology and associates with them, I think it would ensure high efficiency and a mutually beneficial outcome.

SS: Thank you very much for the conversation. I wish you the best.

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