Kyrsten Sinema leads Martha McSally

Democrat Kyrsten Sinema leads Republican Martha McSally in the Arizona Senate race, one of the country's largest contests in mid-term elections next week, revealed a new poll.

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Sinema is in the lead among Latino voters, independents and women. McSally has an advantage over white voters and men.

An association with Trump may have helped McSally in a GOP primary, but she carries her risks state-wide. Forty-four percent of likely voters approve of the president's job, while 49 percent disapprove. Thirty-two percent say they highly approve of Trump, compared with 40% who strongly disapprove of it.

The brawl around the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who, according to Republicans, galvanized their base in key states with Senate elections, might not have much effect in Arizona. Only 35% of likely voters said they were more likely to support a candidate who supported the judge's confirmation, while 37% said they were less likely. Twenty-six percent said the confirmation fight did not make a difference in their vote.

The GOP-backed Senate confirmed Kavanaugh in front of the highest US court earlier this month in the middle of charges of sexual misconduct against him. He vehemently denied the claims. McSally stated that she would have supported Kavanaugh, while Sinema said she would have opposed him.

The voters of Arizona are also very supportive of Democrats in the general struggle for Congress. Forty-seven percent of potential voters said they would prefer to see the party control the legislature after November, while 46 percent said they preferred a Republican majority.

Forty-eight percent also responded that they would most likely vote for a Democrat in their district next Tuesday, while 47 percent are more likely to support a GOP party candidate.

The NBC / Marist Live Call survey was conducted from October 23 to 27 on 910 adults in Arizona (with a margin of error of over 4.1 percentage points), 793 registered voters (over 4 , 4 percentage points) and 506 likely voters (plus-minus 5.4 percentage points).