Last phase of Michael: a deluge from the center of the Atlantic coast, from Virginia to Delmarva

Tropical Storm Michael heads to southeast Virginia Thursday night, discharging up to seven inches of rain over a short period, causing sudden flooding.

Instant flood monitoring is located over a large area that covers much of North Carolina, the southeastern half of Virginia, southern and eastern Maryland, and the entire Delmarva Peninsula. A watch is not in effect for Washington, but its southeast suburb is included.

On Thursday night, Michael was discharging extremely heavy rains in north-central North Carolina and in southeastern, central, and northern Virginia, where large areas were under fire from flood warnings, including Greensboro. and Raleigh, NB, and Lynchburg and Charlottesville, Virginia.

The meteorological service issued a special alert in which it was stated that a "sudden major flood" was likely in eastern Virginia, around Richmond, with rainfall of three inches per hour.

On Thursday afternoon, the Roanoke area, which had received up to half a foot of rain, was undergoing a sudden flood, the most serious warning against flooding.

[The latest news on Michael]

Extremely heavy rains were forecast on a Richmond strip in Salisbury, Maryland on Thursday night, which is expected to be four to seven inches. Larger quantities locally can not be excluded.

Outside of this area of ​​heavy rainfall, one to three inches is most likely, although projected quantities fall below an inch northwest of Washington. (Note that the precipitation forecasts shown above for the DC region are almost certainly inadequate and will be closer to an inch, if not longer.)

Due to the atmospheric rotation associated with Michael's circulation, tornado watches are also used in southeastern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina. On Thursday afternoon, tornado warnings were in effect south of Richmond.

Moment of the rain

As Michael moves very fast, northeast at 24 mph, the rain will not last particularly long in a given area – usually about four to eight hours. But when he falls, he will fall heavily. The precipitation rates associated with Michael's core can reach up to four inches per hour.

Here is a predictive radar animation showing the speed and intensity of the passage of the rain:

Moderate to heavy rainfall in the following cities at the following times:

• Raleigh, NC: Until Thursday evening.
• Roanoke: Until Thursday night.
• Richmond: Thursday noon to Friday noon.
• Washington: Thursday afternoon late afternoon, Friday.
• Salisbury: Thursday night to Friday before dawn.

Risk of flood

The National Weather Service has placed western North Carolina, southeastern Virginia and southern Delmarva in a moderate to high risk zone due to excessive precipitation that can lead to sudden flooding.

The areas in red and pink on the map above are where Michael's core traffic will pass, probably the heaviest precipitation – perhaps four to seven inches – and areas where the risk of flooding is high. is the highest.

"Four to seven inches of rain falling rapidly in an area that also experienced Hurricane Florence last month, as well as one of the wettest years ever recorded so far, is a good reason to introduce a high risk of excessive rainfall, "says the National Weather Service written in a discussion.

Risk of wind and tornado

Winds in a straight line

Michael's sustained maximum winds have dropped to 50 mph and will continue to decline. The strongest winds are concentrated near its center, which will cross the central Carolinas. These winds alone would not likely cause substantial problems.

However, winds above 30 mph, areas of high rainfall or recently and where the soil is saturated could cause trees to fall. Winds of this intensity could affect much of the center of the Atlantic seaboard, even in remote areas of downtown Michael, in the wake of the storm early Friday.

"Blowing winds combined with saturated soil will cause trees to fall, which may cause some power outages," writes the meteorological service serving the Washington and Baltimore areas.

tornadoes

It is common for tropical weather systems to arrive on the ground to generate tornadoes, and Michael is no exception.

A tornado eve covers northeastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia until 9 pm. Thursday.

"Showers crossing southern North Carolina are expected to intensify and turn into integrated storms as they spread north-east in association with Michael," the weather service writes. "Low-level shear and downstream surface heating pockets will be favored for at least a few tornadoes, mainly this afternoon and early evening."

Richmond, hit by a tornado swarm when the remains of Hurricane Florence crossed the region less than a month ago, is included in this watch.

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