[ad_1]
Welcome to The Tip Sheet, a daily political analysis of the 2018 elections, based on interviews with Republican and Democrat leaders, pollsters, strategists and voters.
Where are things
• While leaders of both parties see the Democrats have an advantage in the House race, Republicans are spending more money than they would like to defend open seats that were beautifully red.
This week we reported two races – one in Virginia and one in Florida – where little-known Republican candidates were actually tied in polls with their Democratic opponents in constituencies that President Trump had easily won. The US Congressional Fund for Leadership, the main super PAC of the House, has already begun broadcasting in the Fifth District of Virginia to give a boost to Republican candidate, Denver Riggleman, in his fight against Democrat Leslie Cockburn.
Now the well funded group, called C.L.F. in Washington jargon, will do the same in the 15th district of Florida, where Republican Ross Spano is confronted with Kristen Carlson, the Democratic choice. He spends $ 2 million on advertising to save the Lakeland headquarters in Tampa.
This is a significant amount of new money to be paid out so late for just one district of the House, especially the one that President Trump raised by 10 points – and in a year when Republicans were forced to defend dozens of lawmakers across the country hoping to recover a fraction of their current majority. (Republicans can afford not to lose more than 22 seats this fall if they want to keep the House.)
But this reflects the difficulties faced by Republicans in the seats where they lack incumbents and where their candidates are widely criticized. A New York Times / Siena College poll in mid-October revealed to Spano and Carlson tied to 43 percent.
Composing seven figures in a costly media market like Tampa may be a precautionary measure, but it's already a victory for the Democrats: it's money that will not be spent on even more competitive races .
• On the Senate side, Democrats are spending more than they expected in a race that should now escape them.
But the poll ever closer to comfort in the New Jersey race could not be ignored. The majority of Senate members, PAC, the top super-member of the council, aligned with Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, announced an additional $ 2.8 million investment in the race, a few weeks after the payment of 3 millions of dollars to help his senator in trouble, Senator Bob Menendez. (Mr. Menendez's trial for corruption in the federal government ended with a suspended jury.)
The purchase is accompanied by a new advertisement in which Menendez's Republican opponent, Bob Hugin, is labeled a "prominent vote of Trump", a line frequently used by Menendez. in their debate this week.
Mr. Hugin, a former pharmaceutical executive, added an additional $ 3.5 million of his own money last week, bringing his personal investment in the race to $ 27.5 million.
Republican candidates have recently gained political momentum during several fierce Senate races. For Democrats, the idea of losing the seat in New Jersey – especially if they turn things around and are trying to win the majority on election day – is too much to bear.
McCaskill-Hawley Final Debate
• The final debate between Senator Claire McCaskill, a two-term Democrat from Missouri, and her opponent, Josh Hawley, Republican Attorney General, was not marked on Thursday.
• They disagreed on just about everything, not surprisingly, although both advocated for the protection of health care for people with pre-existing conditions. McCaskill is furious about the issue and argues that Hawley would cancel the protections of the Affordable Care Act, while Hawley was arguing for alternatives and accusing McCaskill of "alarmist tactics".
• While President Trump is expected to return to Missouri – a state in which he had 19 points – to campaign for Mr. Hawley, Ms. McCaskill said that she had voted with the President on outstanding issues 50% time. But she also had chosen words about her character: "Mente right after lie after lie".
• Public polls show a close race. Mr. Hawley has shown a lot of confidence lately.
Two endorsements for Beto
Representative Beto O'Rourke, Democratic candidate (and progressive demi-god) in the Texas Senate, won Dallas Morning News approval. Although the paper also supports Senator Ted Cruz's opponent in 2012, he is supporting Mitt Romney as president that year. Last week, The Houston Chronicle also approved Mr. O'Rourke, a change in his support for Mr. Cruz in 2012.
Cruz holds a modest but stable lead in the race, according to several polls this month. The Times / Siena poll He was eight points ahead of O'Rourke. The latest survey, conducted by CNN, had about the same margin.
Do newspaper endorsements matter a lot? Campaigns tend to be skeptical. But they prefer to have them than not.
"I will not bite you"
Watch this ad for John Barrow, the former Democratic Democrat Conservative Party member from Georgia, who is now the party's candidate for Secretary of State. He has one of the most memorable slogans of the cycle.
Source link
