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Welcome to The Tip Sheet, a daily political analysis of the 2018 elections, based on interviews with Republican and Democrat leaders, pollsters, strategists and voters.
Where are things
• A consensus is emerging among Democratic and Republican strategists – based on public and private polls, anticipated votes and likely participation – that Democrats are about to win about 35 seats in the House of Representatives Tuesday elections. Republicans now have a 23-seat majority in the House.
• Anxiety caused by this number on both sides. Democrats do not want growing expectations for a massive wave that many still doubt in the party. And Republicans do not want to create a sense of despair if they believe they still have a chance to hang on.
• But this number reflects the reality of polls in the suburbs and the tenacity of some Republicans in the suburbs, who should lose so that Democrats can win more than 40 seats.
• The two-party projections are more optimistic for the Democrats than they were two weeks ago, when the consensus was that the Democrats were on track to win between 25 and 35 seats. However, many Republican lawmakers remain mired in the mid-1940s or less in the polls, a harbinger for the incumbents since the campaign's end.
• Even some of the most cautious democratic strategists began to say that the House was making progress.
• Caveat! The election is Tuesday. The best predictions are sometimes wrong. And despite the projections, neither party is convinced that a Democratic majority is inevitable.
Obama asks a question about anger
Toward the fourth or fifth rowdy, former President Barack Obama had an observation to make.
"Why is it," he began, at a rally for the Miami election campaign, "that the people who won the last election be so crazy all the time?"
After his own victory, "at least, my side felt pretty good," Obama said. "He's telling you something."
He struck a characteristic feature of this mid-term election. While some Republicans are talking the state of the economy and tax cuts with a message of staying the course, the most prominent themes of the campaign have been much darker lately – according to the president's guidelines Trump: "crowds", invisible threats, the alleged threat of a caravan of distant migrants.
Of course, Obama has also found a reason to ridicule Republicans for taking credit for the strength of the economy.
"Where do you think it started?", He asked, noting that the same people had insisted that the economy was in a deplorable state, while encouraging numbers came in monitoring.
Cruz hits Beto after Project Veritas video
The migrant caravan was the star of the Texas Senate campaign on Friday, a day after the conservative group Project Veritas released a video claiming to show employees of Democratic representative Beto O. Rourke, "the use of campaign resources to buy supplies and help Honduran foreign transport.
Senator Ted Cruz quoted the report at a morning meeting in Fort Worth, saying that O'Rourke's campaign was using campaign funds to illegally assist migrants. He told a joke about Mr. O'Rourke who wanted to cross the border to "welcome" migrants to Mexico.
"Maybe the welcome baskets and foot massages were not a joke," he told a crowd of supporters.
Keep in mind:
• Under the leadership of President Trump, Republicans' efforts to make the caravan a problem for mid-term races could be paying off. Several supporters of Cruz said they believed the migrant caravan posed an imminent threat to the state. When Mr. Cruz asked how many people in the crowd of several hundred had already voted, almost all raised their hands. The advance poll in Texas ended Friday.
• In the run-up to the last weekend of the election campaign, Mr. Cruz conducted numerous polls in the Texas race, although the latest one shows that both candidates are virtually tied. Mr. O'Rourke never directed Mr. Cruz in a public survey this year.
What's waiting for Chris Collins?
For Representative Chris Collins, the 2020 election may well be the second most important day of this year; his trial of insiders should begin on February 3rd.
But before Mr. Collins, a Republican from west New York, has to worry about the date of 2020, he must first face his reelection this year , an off-again and on-again campaign that does not look like the other holders. efforts.
He barely campaigned and the few events he organized did not appear on any public list. He refused to debate his Democratic opponent, Nate McMurray. McMurray and Reform Party candidate Larry Piegza on stage at a debate the unattended microphone and lectern left for Mr. Collins.
He is also suffering from donors: Mr. McMurray's campaign raised about $ 520,000 during the last quarterly reporting period, compared to $ 33,000 for Mr. Collins. Of this amount, only $ 80 came from the inhabitants of his district.
Yet Mr. Collins is perhaps a favorite. McMurray, a supervisor from the city of Grand Island, New York, was faced with an accelerated transition from a sacrificial candidate to a candidate to overthrow an indicted incumbent president – even though the Republican president held the position of president 25 points in 2016.
Former Vice President Joe Biden campaigned with Mr. McMurray in Lancaster, New York last week, and the Democratic Congressional Congress Campaign Committee began spending money on his campaign. in mid-October.
Polls show that the race has tightened in recent weeks. (The New York Times Upshot Poll with Siena College showed four points to Mr. Collins, with a margin of error.)
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