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The posters announcing the closing of a Lord & Taylor store are on display in New York on Thursday, October 4, 2018. The centennial store Lord & Taylor, located on Fifth Avenue in New York, organizes a sale "closed" starting Thursday . (AP Photo / Seth Wenig)
The September employment report is a case of confusion. Unemployment fell to 3.7%. And yet, new jobs accounted for a low 134,000, lacking expectations.
Some economists say the report is consistent with a strong economy. The fault goes to Hurricane Florence, they say.
But that's not really what the Bureau of Labor Statistics thinks:
Hurricane Florence made landfall on the east coast on September 14 – during the reporting period, for both facility surveys and household surveys – resulting in large-scale evacuations and severe damage. for many homes and businesses. Response rates at both surveys were within normal limits. It is possible that wage employment in some industries was affected by the cyclone; However, it is not possible to quantify the net effect on employment.
The question is how do the surveys that collect the data take place? If respondents were off work during the survey week, even temporarily because of the storm and even the evacuation, they are actually counted as job losses. And, as the BLS data shows, there have been gains, mainly in business and professional services, health care, transportation and warehousing.
Employment in professional and business services increased by 54,000 in September and 560,000 in the year.
Employment in the health sector increased by 26,000 in September. Hospitals created 12,000 jobs and ambulatory care services continued to grow (+10,000). During the year, employment in the health sector increased by 302,000.
In September, employment in transportation and warehousing increased by 24,000. Employment gains were recorded in warehousing and storage (+8,000) as well as in mail and courier services ( +5,000). During the year, transportation and warehousing employment increased by 174,000.
Perhaps the storm was a problem, although it may have pushed transport and warehouses up, with relief and reconstruction materials on their way. But, on the whole, what drives unemployment down is the growth of skilled or semi-skilled jobs. We may be witnessing a continuation of the bifurcation of the labor market. If you are looking for unskilled work, your chances are worse. The retail sector is an example.
Here is a graph that I created from BLS data, looking at the number of jobs in September by year for three categories that would appear to include a lot of unskilled jobs: retail, transportation and transportation. storage, and accommodation and food services.
September employment history in selected sectors from BLS dataErik Sherman
Jobs in accommodation and food services continue to accumulate and you can expect growth in this time of year. After the typical summer downturn, there are more and more people looking for shopping, travel and restaurants. The growth of transportation and warehousing could also make sense, with the need to move materials and people due to the storm and the upcoming holiday season.
It would be reasonable to assume that retail trade would also be on the rise. However, jobs in the sector suffered a severe blow in September, even though he managed to remain stable between 2016 and 2017, no matter hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Over the past decade, the only other time that there has been a larger decline in September has been the beginning of the Great Recession.
An evolution to online sales could be part of this, but according to government figures, physical store sales still account for more than 90% of retail sales.
It could be an aberration. But given the importance of retailing in the service sector and as a major provider of lower paying jobs, it is important to consider it as a canary in the coal mine.
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The posters announcing the closing of a Lord & Taylor store are on display in New York on Thursday, October 4, 2018. The centennial store Lord & Taylor, located on Fifth Avenue in New York, organizes a sale "closed" starting Thursday . (AP Photo / Seth Wenig)
The September employment report is a case of confusion. Unemployment fell to 3.7%. And yet, new jobs accounted for a low 134,000, lacking expectations.
Some economists say the report is consistent with a strong economy. The fault goes to Hurricane Florence, they say.
But that's not really what the Bureau of Labor Statistics thinks:
Hurricane Florence made landfall on the east coast on September 14 – during the reporting period, for both facility surveys and household surveys – resulting in large-scale evacuations and severe damage. for many homes and businesses. Response rates at both surveys were within normal limits. It is possible that wage employment in some industries was affected by the cyclone; However, it is not possible to quantify the net effect on employment.
The question is how do the surveys that collect the data take place? If respondents were off work during the survey week, even temporarily because of the storm and even the evacuation, they are actually counted as job losses. And, as the BLS data shows, there have been gains, mainly in business and professional services, health care, transportation and warehousing.
Employment in professional and business services increased by 54,000 in September and 560,000 in the year.
Employment in the health sector increased by 26,000 in September. Hospitals created 12,000 jobs and ambulatory care services continued to grow (+10,000). During the year, employment in the health sector increased by 302,000.
In September, employment in transportation and warehousing increased by 24,000. Employment gains were recorded in warehousing and storage (+8,000) as well as in mail and courier services ( +5,000). During the year, transportation and warehousing employment increased by 174,000.
Perhaps the storm was a problem, although it may have pushed transport and warehouses up, with relief and reconstruction materials on their way. But, on the whole, what drives unemployment down is the growth of skilled or semi-skilled jobs. We may be witnessing a continuation of the bifurcation of the labor market. If you are looking for unskilled work, your chances are worse. The retail sector is an example.
Here is a graph that I created from BLS data, looking at the number of jobs in September by year for three categories that would appear to include a lot of unskilled jobs: retail, transportation and transportation. storage, and accommodation and food services.
September employment history in selected sectors from BLS dataErik Sherman
Jobs in accommodation and food services continue to accumulate and you can expect growth in this time of year. After the typical summer downturn, there are more and more people looking for shopping, travel and restaurants. The growth of transportation and warehousing could also make sense, with the need to move materials and people due to the storm and the upcoming holiday season.
It would be reasonable to assume that retail trade would also be on the rise. However, jobs in the sector suffered a severe blow in September, even though he managed to remain stable between 2016 and 2017, no matter hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Over the past decade, the only other time that there has been a larger decline in September has been the beginning of the Great Recession.
An evolution to online sales could be part of this, but according to government figures, physical store sales still account for more than 90% of retail sales.
It could be an aberration. But given the importance of retailing in the service sector and as a major provider of lower paying jobs, it is important to consider it as a canary in the coal mine.
